Oil Crops Outlook. Mark Ash Soybean Oil Exports Maintain Strong Pace

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1 Oil Crops Outlook OCS-11c Mar 11, 2011 Mark Ash Soybean Oil Exports Maintain Strong Pace Contents Domestic Outlook Intl. Outlook Contacts & Links Tables Soybean S&D Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Cottonseed Cottonseed Meal Cottonseed Oil Peanuts Oilseed Prices Veg. Oil Prices Oilseed Meal Prices Based on strong sales to date, U.S. exports of soybean oil for 2010/11 were forecast 200 million pounds higher this month to 3 billion pounds. Total domestic disappearance of soybean oil for 2010/11 was forecast unchanged this month, as a forecast 200-millionpound reduction in the domestic use of soybean oil for methyl esters (biodiesel) to 2.7 billion pounds was offset by an increase for the edible market. The season-average price of soybean oil was forecast up to cents per pound, compared to cents last month. Brazil s 2010/11 soybean production estimate was raised 1.5 million metric tons this month to 70 million. Soybean crushing in Brazil for 2010/11 is expected to increase to a record 35.3 million tons. Similarly, the big crop will benefit Brazil s soybean exports, which are seen 200,000 tons higher this month to a record 32.5 million. For Argentina, stronger export competition is seen reducing 2010/11 soybean exports by 600,000 tons this month to 11 million, compared to last year s total of 13.1 million. Web Sites WASDE Oilseed Circular Soybeans & Oil Crops Briefing Room The next release is Apr 11, Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

2 Domestic Outlook U.S. Export Sales of Soybeans Are Slowing, But Shipments Remain Steady As of March 3, export inspections of soybeans totaled billion bushels, only moderately higher than last year s total of billion. However, with outstanding sales 69 percent higher than they were a year ago, this gap should soon start to widen. Export shipments could be firm through April but decline sharply thereafter as shipments from Brazil increase. USDA s forecast of 2010/11 soybean exports is unchanged this month at 1.59 billion bushels. In the domestic market, soybean crushing is declining sharply from last year s level. The January 2011 crush fell to million bushels from 153 million bushels in December, with January s total 11 percent below a year earlier. The cumulative crush for September 2010-January 2011 trails last year s pace by 40.5 million bushels, and that gap is expected to widen into the summer. A retreat in soybean meal values which since January have dropped $10 per short ton to a February average of $359 worsens a deteriorating outlook for crush margins. Ample domestic stocks of soybean oil will help to cushion the market impact of this steep drop in processing. Anticipating this, the 2010/11 crush forecast is unchanged at billion bushels, leaving the outlook for season-ending soybean stocks the same at 140 million bushels. USDA trimmed its forecast of the 2010/11 U.S. average farm price for soybeans to $11.10-$12.10 per bushel from $11.20-$12.20 last month. The year-long rise in soybean cash prices flattened out last month. The February average cash price at central Illinois country elevators actually slipped to $13.57 per bushel from the January average of $ Part of the price slide is due to weakening demand from domestic crushers. Also, the market is taking account of improving prospects for soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina. Prices were also dampened by this month s settlement of a port workers strike in Argentina, which clears an obstacle for newcrop exports from that country. These factors may have led to some recent deferments or cancellations of previously booked U.S. export sales. Previously, the season-average price was held down by the large percentage of soybeans already marketed. Despite January cash prices that ranged from $13.50-$14.00 per bushel, lower-priced forward sales limited that month s national average farm price to $11.60 per bushel. The season-average price for soybean meal was shaved to $340- $370 per short ton from $340-$380 last month. Solid U.S. Export Market for Soybean Oil Buoyed by Shipments to China U.S. exports of soybean oil for 2010/11 were forecast 200 million pounds higher this month to 3 billion pounds, following last year s record of 3.4 billion. Much of the recent support for U.S. soybean oil trade has derived from China s import demand. Last fall, U.S. suppliers picked up many of China s soybean oil imports when the country temporarily stopped trade with Argentina normally the top exporter of soybean oil to China. Not since 1998/99 (prior to a major expansion of China s crush capacity) have U.S. exports of soybean oil to China been so large. Through January, 34 percent of all U.S. exports of soybean oil in 2010/11 were to 2

3 China. Currently, total outstanding sales are nearly as high as a year ago, although the large sales to China in the last quarter of 2009/10 are unlikely to be repeated this year. Most of the subsequent export shipments will go toward more traditional markets where U.S. supplies are normally competitive. Another reason for the strength in U.S. exports of soybean oil is that they have benefited from an even sharper increase in palm oil prices. Palm oil usually trades in the global market at a substantial price discount to soybean oil its main competitor. In recent months, slowing output of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has restricted the availability of exports. Thus, palm oil prices have rallied toward a record high that is about 65 percent above a year ago. European import prices for refined palm oil at Rotterdam are commonly at a 20- to 25-percent discount to soybean oil, but this season have been discounted only 10 percent. For some import markets, such a convergence of prices is enough to increase the share of soybean oil in total purchases of vegetable oil. This month, domestic use of soybean oil for methyl esters (biodiesel) in 2010/11 was forecast down 200 million pounds to 2.7 billion, but still 1 billion higher than the 2009/10 total. Despite an upturn in its use for January, the shortfall for October 2010-January 2011 may not be made up until late in the year. Profit margins for making biodiesel are still slim even with restoration of the $1-per-gallon blending credit. It could take biodiesel plants many more weeks to gear up for higher production again because of the need to restore feedstock supplies and re-hire employees. Even the new forecast assumes that use by biodiesel producers will have to quickly accelerate toward the monthly peaks of 3 years ago. The reduced forecast does not mean that the 2011 biodiesel blending commitment is no longer achievable, but only that a greater amount is likely to be deferred into the October- December 2011 period. This month s reduction in the use of soybean oil for methyl esters is offset by better demand in the edible market, which rebounded in January. Thus, total domestic disappearance of soybean oil for 2010/11 was forecast unchanged this month at 17.1 billion pounds. Higher exports, though, could cut the season-ending stocks of soybean oil to a 6-year low of 2.4 billion pounds. Production of soybean oil increased marginally this month due to an upward revision in the oil extraction rate. The outlook for declining production and strengthening demand is providing firm support for soybean oil prices. While the price for soybean oil in February for central Illinois climbed to 54.2 cents per pound from 53.8 cents in January, it was one of the smallest increases in several months. The season-average price was forecast up to cents per pound, compared to cents last month. 3

4 International Outlook Record Soybean Crop in Brazil Eases Drop in World Supplies Global As a higher crop estimate for Brazil this month offsets higher use in India, 2010/11 global ending stocks of soybeans were forecast slightly higher to 58.4 million metric tons. Brazil s 2010/11 soybean production estimate was raised 1.5 million tons this month to 70 million, which would eclipse Brazil s record crop of 69 million tons in 2009/10. The increase was based on higher yield prospects. Nearly all regions benefited this season from an absence of any long-lasting dry periods. Very good yields are anticipated, but are seen 2 percent below last year s record. Despite frequent rains recently across the Center-West region, the country s soybean harvest has gained momentum. About one-fourth of the crop had been harvested as of early March, compared to nearly one-third a year ago. This year s larger soybean supply will reinvigorate Brazil s processing sector. Soybean crushing for 2010/11 is expected to increase to a record 35.3 million tons, up 800,000 tons from last month s estimate and from 33.7 million in 2009/10. Record domestic use of soybean meal will prevent 2010/11 exports from rising to an all-time high, although that trade may improve to million tons from 13 million last year. Similarly, the big crop will benefit Brazil s soybean exports, which are seen 200,000 tons higher this month to a record 32.5 million. It will also ease the year-to-year decline in Brazil s soybean ending stocks, which were forecast 500,000 tons higher this month to 15.4 million. In contrast, Argentina s trade outlook is tempered by stronger export competition from Brazil. Argentine soybean exports for 2010/11 are forecast 600,000 tons lower this month to 11 million, compared to last year s total of 13.1 million. With lower soybean demand, a less severe reduction is seen in September for year-ending stocks in Argentina. 4

5 Revised Soybean Production Data for China Alters Stocks Estimates Based on the latest official estimates in China, the area and production series for soybeans were revised. Output for 2009/10 and 2010/11 were revised up to million and 15.2 million tons, respectively. However, smaller carryovers from earlier years reduced the soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 to 13.3 million tons and 16.3 million for 2010/11. Estimates of soybean use were unchanged this month, except the 2010/11 export forecast was reduced to 300,000 tons from 450,000 tons previously. Stronger Export Demand for Indian Soybean Meal Spurs Higher Crushing For India, October 2010-February 2011 soybean meal exports were nearly double their level of a year earlier. This strong recovery led USDA to raise its forecast of India s 2010/11 exports by 560,000 tons to 4.31 million. Most of the increase comes at the expense of U.S. soybean meal exports to Asia, which are already down nearly 1 million tons from last year. As a result, the soybean crush in India is expected to expand to a record 8.9 million tons in 2010/11. This is a 700,000-ton increase from last month s forecast. The additional demand is seen reducing the country s ending stocks of soybeans to 430,000 tons from the previous estimate of 1.05 million and last season s unusually large carryout of 1.19 million. A parallel rise in the domestic production of soybean oil this year has been enough to curtail India s imports of the commodity. Soybean oil imports for India in 2010/11 are forecast 300,000 tons lower this month to 1 million tons, down from 1.6 million in 2009/10. Demand for vegetable oil imports could also be moderated by a good domestic rapeseed crop, which will start to be harvested within a month. The increase in India s domestic oilseeds production for 2010/11 is expected to be 3 million tons. That will help to hold down the forecast gain in Indian vegetable oil imports for 2010/11 to 9.2 million tons a 1-percent increase. Last year s growth in India s vegetable oil imports was 3 percent. 5

6 Contacts and Links Contact Information Mark Ash (soybeans, vegetable oils), (202) , Verna Daniels (web publishing), (202) , Subscription Information Subscribe to ERS notification service at to receive timely notification of newsletter availability. Printed copies can be purchased from USDA Order desk by calling (specify the issue number). To order printed copies of the five field crop newsletters cotton and wool, feed, rice, oil crops, and wheat as a series, specify series SUB-COR Data Monthly tables from Oil Crops Outlook are available in Excel (.xls) spreadsheets at These tables contain the latest data on the production, use, imports, exports, prices, and textile trade of cotton and other fibers. Recent Reports Economic Analysis of Base Acre and Payment Yield Designations Under the 2002 U.S. Farm Act evaluates farmers' decisions to designate base acres under the 2002 Farm Act. Findings suggest that decisionmakers responded to economic incentives in their designations of base acres by selecting those options that resulted in the greatest expected flow of program payments, See also Farm Program Acres for the county-level farm program and planted acreage data used in the report, which can be downloaded and mapped. Related Websites Oil Crops Outlook, WASDE, Oilseed Circular, Soybeans and Oil Crops Briefing Room, Notification Readers of ERS outlook reports have two ways they can receive an notice about release of reports and associated data. Receive timely notification (soon after the report is posted on the web) via USDA s Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (which is housed at Cornell University s Mann Library). Go to nnusda/about service.do and follow the instructions to receive e- mail notices about ERS, Agricultural Marketing Service, National Agricultural Statistics Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board products. Receive weekly notification (on Friday afternoon) via the ERS website. Go to and follow the instructions to receive notices about ERS outlook reports, Amber Waves magazine, and other reports and data products on specific topics. ERS also offers RSS (really simple syndication) feeds for all ERS products. Go to to get started. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and, where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual s income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA s TARGET Center at (202) (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C or call (800) (voice) or (202) (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. 6

7 Table 1--Soybeans: U.S. supply and disappearance Area Yield Supply Disappearance Year begin. Planted Harvested Beginning Seed, feed, Ending Sept. 1 stocks Production Imports Total Crush Exports & residual Total stocks Million acres Bu/acre Million bushels / , ,185 1,662 1, , / , ,512 1,752 1, , / , ,495 1,655 1, , /10 September October November Sep-Nov , , , ,338.6 December January February Dec-Feb 2, , (43.9) 1, ,270.1 March April May Mar-May 1, , June July August Jun-Aug (87.4) Total 3, , , , , /11 September October November Sep-Nov , , , ,338.6 December January Total to date 1 3, , , , Estimated. 2 Forecast. NA=Not available. Sources: Crop Production and Grain Stocks, National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture and Oilseed Crushings, Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. 7

8 Table 2--Soybean meal: U.S. supply and disappearance Supply Disappearance Year begin. Beginning Ending Oct. 1 stocks Production Imports Total Domestic Exports Total stocks 1,000 short tons 2008/ , ,484 30,752 8,497 39, / , ,095 30,619 11,175 41, / , ,050 30,500 9,250 39, /10 October , , , , November , , , , , December , , , , , January , , , , , February , , , , , March , , , , , April , , , , May , , , , June , , , , July , , , , August , , , , September , , , , Total 41, , , , , /11 October , , , , November , , , , , December , , , , January , , , , , Total to date 1 14, , , , , Estimated. 2 Forecast. NA=Not available. Source: Oilseed Crushings, Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. 8

9 Table 3--Soybean oil: U.S. supply and disappearance Supply Disappearance Year begin. Beginning Production Imports Total Domestic Exports Total Ending Oct. 1 stocks Total Methyl ester stocks Million pounds 2008/09 2,485 18, ,319 16,265 2,021 2,193 18,459 2, /10 1 2,861 19, ,577 15,862 1,680 3,357 19,219 3, /11 2 3,358 19, ,508 17,100 2,700 3,000 20,100 2, /10 October 2, , , , , ,809.4 November 2, , , , , ,990.5 December 2, , , , , ,150.5 January 3, , , , , ,217.0 February 3, , , , , ,286.9 March 3, , , , , ,261.7 April 3, , , , , ,353.5 May 3, , , , , ,465.1 June 3, , , , , ,552.9 July 3, , , , , ,544.7 August 3, , , , , ,282.6 September 3, , , , , ,358.4 Total 19, , , , , , /11 October 3, , , , , ,229.9 November 3, , , , , ,295.7 December 3, , , , , ,474.6 January 1 3, , , , , ,421.2 Total to date 7, , , , , Estimated. 2 Forecast. NA=Not available. Sources: Oilseed Crushings and Fats and Oils: Production, Consumption, and Stocks,Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. 9

10 Table 4--Cottonseed: U.S. supply and disappearance Supply Disappearance Year begin. Beginning Ending Aug. 1 stocks Production Imports Total Crush Exports Other Total stocks 1,000 short tons 2008/ , ,943 2, ,999 4, / , ,687 1, ,154 4, / , ,533 2, ,290 6, Estimated. 2 Forecast. Sources: Crop Production, National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture and Oilseed Crushings, Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. 10

11 Table 5--Cottonseed meal: U.S. supply and disappearance Supply Disappearance Year begin. Beginning Ending Oct. 1 stocks Imports Production Total Domestic Exports Total stocks 1,000 short tons 2008/ / / ,150 1,204 1, , Estimated. 2 Forecast. Source: Oilseed Crushings, Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. 11

12 Table 6--Cottonseed oil: U.S. supply and disappearance Supply Disappearance Year begin. Beginning Ending Oct. 1 stocks Imports Production Total Domestic Exports Total stocks Million pounds 2008/ / / Estimated. 2 Forecast. Sources: Oilseed Crushings and Fats and Oils: Production, Consumption, and Stocks, Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. 12

13 Table 7--Peanuts: U.S. supply and disappearance Supply Disappearance Year begin. Beginning Domestic Seed & Ending Aug. 1 stocks Imports Production Total food Crush residual Exports Total stocks Million pounds 2008/09 1, ,162 6,280 2, ,150 2, /10 1 2, ,692 5,894 2, ,065 1, /11 2 1, ,156 6,044 2, ,376 1,668 1 Estimated. 2 Forecast. Sources: Crop Production and Peanut Stocks and Processing, National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture and Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. 13

14 Table 8--Oilseed prices received by U.S. farmers Marketing Soybeans 2 Cottonseed 3 Sunflowerseed 2 Canola 4 Peanuts 3 Flaxseed 4 year $/bu. $/ton $/cwt. $/cwt. Cents/lb. $/bu. 1999/ / / / / / / / / / / / /10 September October November December January February NA March 9.39 NA April 9.47 NA May 9.41 NA June 9.45 NA July 9.79 NA August NA /11 September October November December January February Preliminary. 2 September-August 3 August-July 4 July-June NA = Not available. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 14

15 Table 9--U.S. vegetable oil and fats prices Marketing Soybean Cottonseed Sunflower Canola Peanut Corn Lard 6 Edible year oil 2 oil 3 oil 4 oil 4 oil 5 oil 6 tallow 6 Cents/lb. 1999/ / / / / / / / / / / / /10 October November December January February March April May June July August September /11 October November December January February Preliminary. 2 Decatur, IL. 3 PBSY Greenwood, MS. 4 Midwest. 5 Southeast mills. 6 Chicago. NA= Not available. Sources: Monthly Feedstuff Prices, Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 15

16 Table 10--U.S. oilseed meal prices Marketing Soybean Cottonseed Sunflower Peanut Canola Linseed year meal 2 meal 3 meal 4 meal 5 meal 6 meal 7 $/Short ton 1999/ / / / / / / / / NA / NA / NA / NA /10 October NA November NA December NA NA January NA February NA March NA April NA May NA June NA July NA August NA September NA /11 October NA November NA December NA January NA February NA Preliminary. 2 Hi-pro Decatur, IL. 3 41% Memphis. 4 34% North Dakota-Minnesota. 5 50% Southeast mills. 6 36% Pacific Northwest. 7 34% Minneapolis. NA= Not available. Source: Monthly Feedstuff Prices, Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 16