Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

Transcription

1 Washington, D.C. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Released March 26, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on call Nick Streff at , office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Hog Inventory down 3 Percent U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 2010 was 64.0 million head. This was down 3 percent from March 1, and down 2 percent from December 1,. Breeding inventory, at 5.76 million head, was down 4 percent from last year and down 2 percent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 58.2 million head, was down 3 percent from last year and down 2 percent from last quarter. The December -February 2010 pig crop, at 27.9 million head, was down 2 percent from and down 2 percent from. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2. million head, down 4 percent from and down 6 percent from. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 9.61 for the December -February 2010 period, compared to 9.48 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.40 for operations with 1- hogs and pigs to for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. Million Head U.S. Inventory March Mt An 4 (3-10)

2 U.S. hog producers intend to have 2. million sows farrow during the March-May 2010 quarter, down 4 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in and down 5 percent from. Intended farrowings for June-August 2010, at 2.89 million sows, are down 2 percent from and down 6 percent from. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 44 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, down from 45 percent last year. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for March through December were reviewed using slaughter, death loss and current import and export data. Based on this review, adjustments of less than one half of one percent were made to the June-August pig crop and September total inventory. An adjustment of less than one percent was made to the December total inventory. This report was approved on March 26, Acting Secretary of Agriculture Michael T. Scuse Acting Chairperson Joseph J. Prusacki March 2010 NASS, UA

3 Contents Page Quarterly U.S. Inventory by Class and Weight Group, Quarterly U.S. Sows Farrowed, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter, Quarterly U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation, Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by and U.S., March June September December Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, Pig Crop by and U.S.; December-February March-May June-August September-November Monthly U.S. Farrowings, December-November Reliability ment Information Contacts March 2010 i NASS, UA

4 March 1 Inventory 1 All Hogs and Pigs Kept for Breeding Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter, United s, Item as a % 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 65,819 5,2 59,828 63,8 5,760 58,228 Market Hogs and Pigs by Weight Groups Under 50 Pounds Pounds Pounds 180 Pounds and Over 19,809 16,426 12,732 10,862 19,017 15,3 12,477 10,742 June 1 Inventory 1 All Hogs and Pigs Kept for Breeding Market 66,809 5,8 60,842 Market Hogs and Pigs by Weight Groups Under 50 Pounds Pounds Pounds 180 Pounds and Over 19,554 17,838 12,604 10,847 September 1 Inventory 1 All Hogs and Pigs Kept for Breeding Market 66,716 5,875 60,842 Market Hogs and Pigs by Weight Groups Under 50 Pounds Pounds Pounds 180 Pounds and Over 19,758 17,148 12,684 11,253 December 1 Inventory 1 All Hogs and Pigs Kept for Breeding Market 65,327 5,850 59,477 Market Hogs and Pigs by Weight Groups Under 50 Pounds Pounds Pounds 180 Pounds and Over 1 May not add due to rounding. 19,085 17,062 12,079 11,252 March NASS, UA

5 Sows Farrowing Dec-Feb 1 Mar-May 2 Dec-May Farrowings: of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter, United s, Item ,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent Percent 3,071 3,052 6,123 3,011 3,018 6,029 2,1 2,8 5,7 Jun-Aug 2 Sep-Nov Jun-Nov 3 3,075 3,028 6, 2,9 2,4 5,933 2,887 Pig Crop Dec-Feb 1 Mar-May Dec-May ,388 28,631 57,019 28,552 29,012 57,564 27,873 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Jun-Nov 3 29,240 28,771 58,011 28,718 28,833 57,551 Pigs per Litter Dec-Feb 1 Mar-May Dec-May 1 Percent Percent Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Jun-Nov December preceding year. 2 Intentions for May not add due to rounding. 4 Actual farrowings for December -February 2010 plus intentions for March-May Dec-Feb 2 Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Pig Crop Pigs per Litter: By Size of Operation, United s, Pigs per Litter on Operations Having 1 1- Head -4 Head Head 1,000-1,9 Head 2,000-4,9 Head 5,000+ Head Dec-Feb 2 Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Pigs per litter rounded to the nearest tenth. 2 December preceding year. March NASS, UA

6 Head U.S. Quarterly Litter Rate December-February U.S. Pigs per Litter By Size of Operation, December-February 2010 Head All ,000-1,9 2,000-4,9 5,000+ March NASS, UA

7 Million Head U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed December-February Million Head U.S. Quarterly Pig Crop December-February March NASS, UA

8 Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by and United s, March 1, Breeding Market Total ,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 480 1, , ,820 3,280 18,460 1, ,820 2,585 2,815 8,420 1,810 1,0 1,020 1, ,920 3,310 17,8 1, ,650 2,645 2,635 8,220 1,880 1,880 1, ,300 3,550 19,500 1,820 1,040 7, 2,0 3,200 9, 1,0 2,340 1,110 1,310 1, , 3,600 18,0 1,810 1,0 7,200 3,000 3,000 9, 2,050 2,2 1,140 1, Sts ,3 2,803 3,389 3,238 US 2 5,2 5,760 59,828 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 May not add due to rounding. 58,228 65,819 63,8 Million Head U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs March 1 Inventory Market March NASS, UA

9 Under 50 Lbs. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Weight Group,, and United s, March 1, Lbs Lbs. 180 Lbs. and Over ,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 2 1,350 1,140 4, ,460 1, , ,240 1,140 4, ,320 1, , , 0 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Sts 1 9 1, US 2 19,809 19,017 16,426 15,3 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 12,732 12,477 10,862 10,742 March NASS, UA

10 Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by and United s, June 1, - Breeding Market Total 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent , , , ,8 3,360 18,320 1, ,920 2,720 3,020 9,080 1,725 1,0 1,085 1, ,8 3,330 18,780 1, ,920 2,5 2,910 8,710 1,840 1,8 1,060 1, ,350 3,650 19, 1,780 1,030 7,500 3, 3, 10, 1,8 2,360 1,180 1,430 1, ,350 3,600 19,800 1,7 1,060 7,500 3,050 3,300 9,0 2,010 2,2 1, 1,2 1, Sts ,114 2,2 3,630 3,439 US 2 6,131 5,8 61,269 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 May not add due to rounding. 60,842 67, 66,809 Million Head U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs June 1 Inventory Market March NASS, UA

11 Under 50 Lbs. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Weight Group,, and United s, June 1, Lbs Lbs. 180 Lbs. and Over 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 275 1,250 1,050 4, ,3 1,155 1,000 3, ,220 1, 4, ,3 1, , ,140 1,030 5, , , ,220 1,040 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Sts 1 1,092 1, US 2 19,807 19,554 17,711 17,838 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 12,892 12,604 10,860 10,847 March NASS, UA

12 Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by and United s, September 1, - Breeding Market Total 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent , , , ,930 3,320 18,730 1, ,030 2,775 2,925 9,300 1,755 2,060 1,035 1,210 1, ,780 3,320 18,6 1, ,740 2,0 2,920 9,020 1,8 1,0 1,030 1, , 3,600 19,800 1,810 1,050 7,600 3, 3,300 10,300 1,920 2,460 1,120 1,360 1, ,250 3,600 19,0 1,760 1,060 7,300 3,050 3,300 10,000 2,050 2,360 1,120 1,280 1, Sts ,145 2, ,656 3,3 93 US 2 6,061 5,875 62,135 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 May not add due to rounding. 60,842 68,1 66,716 Million Head U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs September 1 Inventory Market March NASS, UA

13 Under 50 Lbs. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Weight Group,, and United s, September 1, Lbs Lbs. 180 Lbs. and Over 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 280 1,2 1,0 5, ,5 1, , ,240 1,140 4, ,420 1, 0 3, ,140 1,000 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Sts 1 1,113 1, US 2 20,643 19,758 17,437 17,148 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 12,855 12,684 11,201 11,253 March NASS, UA

14 Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by and United s, December 1, - Breeding Market Total 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent , , ,860 3, 18,830 1, ,920 2,780 2,0 8,720 1,7 2,000 1,030 1,125 1, ,820 3,3 18,180 1, ,740 2,740 2,730 8,6 1,845 1,8 1,060 1, ,350 3,550 19,0 1,740 1,030 7,500 3, 3,350 9,0 1,0 2, 1,120 1,280 1, ,300 3,650 19,200 1,810 1,080 7,300 3, 3, 9,600 2,010 2,300 1,160 1, Sts ,052 2,892 3,548 3,347 US 2 6,062 5,850 61,087 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 May not add due to rounding. 59,477 67,148 65,327 Million Head U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs December 1 Inventory Market March NASS, UA

15 Under 50 Lbs. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Weight Group,, and United s, December 1, Lbs Lbs. 180 Lbs. and Over 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1, 1,0 4, ,420 1,200 1,010 3, ,230 1, 4, ,410 1, , , , , , ,1 1,000 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Sts 1 1,013 1, US 2 19,428 19,085 17,3 17,062 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 12,731 12,079 11,533 11,252 March NASS, UA

16 Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by and United s, December-February Sows Farrowing 1 Pigs Pig Crop per Litter ,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent ,375 1,302 4, ,779 1,777 1,804 5, , ,491 1,316 4, ,673 1,853 1,750 4, , Sts ,180 1,5 US 4 3,011 2,1 1 December preceding year. 2 of pigs born December-February that were still on hand March 1, or had been sold. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 4 May not add due to rounding ,552 27,873 March NASS, UA

17 Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by and United s, March-May Sows Farrowing Pigs Pig Crop 1 per Litter 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent ,151 1,320 4, ,8 1,786 1,776 5, , ,375 1,269 4, ,836 1,813 1,881 5, , Sts ,279 2,221 US 4 3,052 3,018 2, of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold ,631 29,012 2 Intentions. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 4 May not add due to rounding. March NASS, UA

18 Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by and United s, June-August Sows Farrowing Pigs Pig Crop 1 per Litter 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent ,268 1,341 4, ,793 1,892 1,7 5, , ,328 1,283 4, ,750 1,850 1,859 5, , Sts ,337 2, US 4 3,075 2,9 2,887 1 of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September 1, or had been sold ,240 28,718 2 Intentions. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 4 May not add due to rounding. March NASS, UA

19 Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by and United s, September-November - Sows Farrowing Pigs per Litter Pig Crop 1 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent ,3 1,288 4, ,807 1,930 1,813 4, , ,457 1,289 4, ,864 1,881 1,800 4, , Sts ,2 2,073 US 3 3,028 2,4 28,771 1 of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December 1, or had been sold. 2 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 3 May not add due to rounding. 28,833 March NASS, UA

20 Dec 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month Monthly Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop, United s, December-November Sows Farrowing 1 Pigs per Litter Pig Crop ,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 9 1,013 1,001 1,009 1,003 1, , ,475 9,576 9,501 9,650 9,644 9,718 9,673 9,567 9,478 9,7 9,574 9,465 9,425 9,292 9,156 Total 11, Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to rounding. 2 December preceding year. 115,115 March NASS, UA

21 Reliability of March 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 8,0 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of March 2010, data were collected from about 7,000 operations, 81 percent of the total sample. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of March 1, Estimation Procedures: Hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each field office. National and survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 64.0 million head by more than 1.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.7 percent. March NASS, UA

22 Item All Hogs & Pigs Root Mean Square Error Reliability of March 1 Hog Estimates % Confidence Level Difference Between First and Latest Estimates Average Smallest Largest First Above Latest Quarters First Below Latest Percent Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head , , Pig Crop , Expected Farrowings Next Quarter Following Quarter Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch... (202) Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section... (202) Jim Collom Dairy Products... (202) Joe Gaynor Dairy Products Prices... (202) Jason Hardegree Cattle, Cattle on Feed... (202) Sherry Bertramsen Livestock Slaughter... (515) Everett Olbert Sheep and Goats... (202) Mike Miller Milk Production and Milk Cows... (202) Nick Streff Hogs and Pigs... (202) March NASS, UA

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