How important is sugar in the global ethanol equation? (and vice-versa)
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1 How important is sugar in the global ethanol equation? (and vice-versa) Kingsman Indian Sugar Summit Tom McNeill 1 September 2010
2 Global sugar/ethanol picture Sugar Other Ethanol Sugar in 2010/11 crowding out ethanol prodn Global sugar prices out-compete Braz ethanol Oil prices are only soft support for ethanol Grain price rally pushing feedstock prices up Globally, mandated or price supported is fine Non-mandated usage more difficult
3 Global Ethanol S&D 2010
4 Global Ethanol Prodn has grown faster than consumption, causing a surplus mln litres World ethanol production and consumption Our latest forecasts: Prodn: bln l. Consn: bln l. 0 Production Consumption
5 Our forecast shows strong regional imbalance 4 3 bln litres Regional Fuel Ethanol Surplus/Deficit Europe N America C & S America Africa Asia & Middle East
6 Brazil Ethanol where the real sugar interface lies
7 Brazil major producer & exporter, using sugar cane CS Brazil - ethanol production by type bln litres Hydrous Anhydrous 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11f Prodn: 26.8 bln l 31.35% of global Cons: 23.4 bln l 28.02% of global Surplus: 3.4 bln l Compared to 1.98 bln l global
8 Brazil while ethanol prodn is well ahead of 2009/ bln litres CS Brazil - Fortnightly Ethanol Production Hydrous 09/10 Anhydrous 09/10 Hydrous 10/11 Anhdyrous 10/
9 Brazil sugar reduces potential ethanol production 75% 70% 65% 60% CS Brazil - Cumulative Prodn Mix Percentage of Cane to Ethanol 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 65% 60% 55% 50% CS Brazil - Ethanol & Sugar Split and Utilisation % ART mln mt Ethanol sucrose utilisation Sugar sucrose utilisation Sugar % Ethanol % % 50% 45% 40% % 35% 0 Mid Apr Mid May Mid Jun Mid Jul Mid Aug Mid Sep Mid Oct Mid Nov Mid Dec Mid Jan
10 Unsurprising, since sugar price more attractive US c/lb Brazil Ethanol v Sugar Export Price (US c/lb Equiv.) Hydrous ESALQ Anhydrous ESALQ Sugar Export Value Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10
11 Brazil Consumption is recovering slowly after a dip Brazil: Alcohol Consumption as Fuel bln litres/mth Hydrous Anhydrous 0.00 Jan 07 Jun 07 Nov 07 Apr 08 Sep 08 Feb 09 Jul 09 Dec 09 May 10
12 Brazil - Despite export availability, prices not competitive in US/EU 850 $/cu m Comparative Spot Ethanol Prices FOB Santos FOB Rdam T1 FOB NY Harbour Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10
13 Brazil As a result, reduced exports in mln litres Brazil Ethanol Exports (Williams data) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
14 Brazil Export window to Europe remains shut EN Spec Prices at Origin & Destination Brazil Ethanol Exports to Europe $/cu m Margin (RHS) FOB Rdam T1 FOB Santos $/cu m ,750 1,500 1,250 1, cumulative mln litres (Williams data) Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
15 Brazil Looking forward, more cane available mln mt CS Brazil Cane Production Question is in 2011, will there be more cane? More sugar? More ethanol?
16 Hydrous price highest ever at end Aug timing 1,400 Brazil ESALQ Hydrous Index Price R$ per cu metre 1,200 1, / / / / /10 '2010/ Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
17 Brazil - summary Ethanol playing catch-up from 2009/10 (so is sugar) Plenty of unmet ethanol demand in 2010 Domestic prices > export, record Aug highs Exports of fuel ethanol have suffered
18 Global Ethanol not all smooth sailing
19 Global Ethanol Feedstock prices on the rise 200 GBP/mt London Prompt Feed Wheat 850 CBOT Prompt Corn Futures Price US /bu Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10
20 Global Ethanol Feedstock prices on the rise (2) EU - Ethanol Feedstock Prices EUR/mt Corn Wheat Consecana cane price vs NY11 R$/t cane Cane Price NY11 Sugar USc/lb Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug
21 Global Ethanol Feedstock prices on the rise (3) 700 Thailand - Cassava Exports Price $/mt 200 USD /mt FOB Thai Molasses Prices Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 80
22 Commodity Price hike doesn t include oil $/bbl WTI Oil Prices Oil price probably insufficient to push new ethanol schemes
23 Global Ethanol where does sugar fit?
24 Other Major Producers (except Brazil) World Grain, Sugar cane, Sugar beet, Molasses, Cassava USA - Corn EU - Corn, Wheat, Sugar Beet China Corn, Cassava Canada Corn, Wheat Thailand Cassava, Molasses Australia Wheat residue, Molasses, other grains
25 Global Prodn Corn & Sugarcane the major feedstocks Other Grain, 2367, 3% World - Ethanol Production by Sugar Beet, 938, 1% Feedstock Molasses, 1775, 2% Cassava, 235, 0.27% Others, 1112, 1% Sugarcane, 26975, 32% Corn, 52079, 61% mln litre
26 Global Exports Sugarcane the major feedstock (2010) Sugar Beet, 234, 7% World - Ethanol Exports by Others, 214, 6% Feedstock Molasses, 224, 4% Cassava, 45, 1% Other Grain, 455, 13% Sugarcane, 1450, 42% Corn, 828, 24% mln litre
27 US Strong growth of ethanol production relies on mandates, gasoline price & corn price US Ethanol Operating & Listed Capacity US Ethanol Producer's Return on Capital bln gal Total Listed Capacity Operating Capacity 0.75 $/gal (Dry Milling) c/bu Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Return on Capital (LHS) Corn Price Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul
28 EU Crush Margin falling due to rising feedstock cost European Ethanol & Wheat Crush Margin 400 EUR/mt
29 EU beet feedstock the exception to rule? 36 UK - Beet price ( /mt)
30 China Corn is still the main feedstock 5,000 4, mt Chinese Ethanol Production China - Ethanol Production by Feedstock Molasses Ethanol 6% 3,000 2,000 Cassava Ethanol 19% 1,000 0 Corn Ethanol Cassava Ethanol Molasses Ethanol Corn Ethanol 75%
31 China despite this, a small increase in exports mln litre Chinese Ethanol Exports Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
32 Canada Corn accounts for over 70% of feedstock in ethanol 2000 mln litres Canada - Ethanol Production & Consumption Production Consumption Canada - Ethanol Capacity by Feedstock mln litre Wheat % Corn % Others %
33 Thailand making more ethanol from molasses litres/day Thai Ethanol Costs of Production baht/litre Quantity Cassava Quantity Molasses Mol. Ethanol COP Cass. Ethanol COP Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10 Aug 10 source: Thai Energy 15
34 Australia tiny market, but dominated by wheat residue & molasses 3.00% Australia: Sales of Ethanol Blended Petroleum Three Ethanol Producers 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 VIC NSW QLD Australia Feedstocks Capacity (mln litres/yr) wheat 150 molasses 60 sorghum 90
35 Global sugar/ethanol picture Sugar Other Ethanol Sugar in 2010/11 crowding out ethanol prodn Global sugar prices out-compete Brazil ethanol Oil prices are only soft support for ethanol Grain price rally pushing feedstock prices up Globally, mandated or price supported is fine Non-mandated usage more difficult
36 LAUSANNE BRISBANE SANTOS USA LONDON BANGKOK
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EUR/100 kg MAR FEB JAN * : provisional figures. Jan 14 MAR JAN FEB EUR/100 kg
EU Trade EU Productions Sources : EUROSTAT, Reg. (EU) 479/2010, Clal.it, USDA, Lto.nl, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Dairyaustralia, Dcanz, Global Trade Atlas, 01 02 1000 Tonnes 03 World Trade 04 05 06
Drought Forecast to Reduce Australian Rapeseed Exports in 2007
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FOP 11-06 November 2006 Drought Forecast to Reduce Australian Rapeseed Exports in 2007 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800
December. Next release: 13 February Oct/Sep Nov/Oct Dec/Nov Janu19 January Febru13 February 2018 Oct/Sep Nov/Oct Dec/Nov 2017
Oct/Sep Nov/Oct Dec/Nov 2017 19 Janu19 January 2018 13 Febru13 February 2018 Oct/Sep Nov/Oct Dec/Nov 2017 Next release: 13 February 2018 DecembDecember December TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Charts 1 Latest IEA
EUR/100 kg MAR FEB JAN * : provisional figures. Jan 15. Jan 16 JAN MAR FEB EUR/100 kg
GDT Auction EU Trade World Trade EU Productions World Productions 1000 Tonnes USD/Feed/Energy EUR/100 kg JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 01 02
EUR/100 kg JAN FEB APR * : provisional figures. Jan 18 JAN APR FEB MAR
GDT Auction EU Trade World Trade EU Productions World Productions 1 Tonnes 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 USD/Feed/Energy EUR/1 kg JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
EUR/100 kg FEB JAN MAR 29,7 26,1 25. * : provisional figures. Jan 13 JAN MAR FEB 36,0 21,7. EUR/100 kg
GDT Auction EU Trade World Trade EU Productions World Productions 1000 Tonnes USD/Feed/Energy EUR/100 kg JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 01 02
Market Report Series: Oil 2018 Analysis & Forecasts to Energy Community 10 th Oil Forum, Belgrade, 25 September 2018
Market Report Series: Oil 218 Analysis & Forecasts to 223 Energy Community 1 th Oil Forum, Belgrade, 25 September 218 Short term update: crude prices (excl. WTI) up strongly Aug/Sep $/bbl 8 Benchmark Crude
Copyright 2018 Renewable Energy Group, Inc. AFOA Biomass Based Diesel Market Trends
AFOA Biomass Based Diesel Market Trends Agenda Production Trends Modest and steady growth in biodiesel Potential Growth in RD, timeline is uncertain Co-processing volume yet to materialize Market Trends