Global Overview of Middle Distillates Supply and Demand ICE Market Forum Rotterdam, November 2012

Transcription

1 Global Overview of Middle Distillates Supply and Demand ICE Market Forum Rotterdam, November 2012

2 About Petromatrix Based in Switzerland (city of Zug) Publishes a daily newsletter on oil markets Mix of fundamentals, technicals, and analysis of investment flows Subscription basis Free trial: info@petromatrix.com mbpd = 000 b/d

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4 World Oil Demand Y-O-Y Growth myn b/d (source: IEA)

5 World Oil Demand 1.8 IEA estimate of 2012 Demand Growth (myn b/d)

6 World Oil Demand IEA, mbpd 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 OECD NON-OECD

7 World Oil Non-OECD Demand IEA, mbpd 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 East of Suez West of Suez

8 2012 Demand Growth by Products mbpd Resid Naphtha Others Jet Gasoline Distillates -200

9 Share of Diesel demand Source: OPEC 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Pacific Latam Mideast Others Other Asia China Nth Am Europe

10 West of Suez

11 Europe Distillates Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000

12 Europe Distillates Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Diesel Gasoil

13 Europe Driving Fuels Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000

14 Europe Driving fuel Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Diesel Gasoline

15 Europe % Diesel of Driving Fuels 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45%

16 Europe % Diesel of Driving Fuels 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% France Germany Spain Switzerland

17 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Europe % Diesel of Driving Fuels vs Distillates refinery yields (IEA) Diesel share of driving fuel Distillates yield

18 Europe Refinery runs (IEA, mbpd) 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000

19 Europe Diesel Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 1,700 Diesel dmd in SPA/POR/ITA/TKY mbpd 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20 Europe Diesel Demand % (source: IEA) 15% Diesel dmd in SPA/POR/ITA/TKY % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

21 Europe Diesel Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 Diesel dmd in FRA/GER/UK/NL mbpd 1,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

22 Europe Diesel Demand % (source: IEA) 15% Diesel dmd in FRA/GER/UK/NL % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

23 Demand vs prev year Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Mogas Diesel Mogas Diesel Mogas Diesel Mogas Diesel Germany -2.4% 3.8% -8.1% -2.0% France -0.6% 5.6% -5.7% -1.3% -11.9% -5.0% UK -5.6% 0.2% -3.8% 7.0% Italy -6.7% -5.5% -10.1% -9.7% -18.2% -15.6% Spain -8.5% -6.7% -6.0% -5.7% -14.0% -13.5%

24 30 Unemployment % by EU country NL DE SE UK PL IT FR PT GR ES

25

26 Europe net Distillates imports (IEA, mbpd) 1, Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan Med NWE

27 Spain net Distillates imports

28 Europe net Distillates imports (IEA,k MT) FSU US Asia

29 US Distillates Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA)

30 US Distillates Demand mbpd(source: IEA) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Diesel Other Gasoil

31 Nth Atlantic Basin Distillates Demand mb/d (source: IEA) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, USA Diesel Europe Diesel USA Gasoil Europe Gasoil

32 US & EUR % Diesel of Driving Fuels 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Europe USA

33 US & Europe Refinery runs (IEA,mbpd) 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 Europe USA

34 US Distillates S&D (mbpd) 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 Supply Demand

35 US Products exports (DOE,mbpd) 1,200 1, Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Distillates Gasoline

36 US Distillates exports (DOE,mbpd) Europe Latin America

37 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Floating Storage Distillates Distillate Floating Storage US onshore Distillate Stocks March 2008

38 US Midwest refinery economics

39 US, cheapest crude at market price

40 Latam Distillates demand (JODI, mbpd) Arg/Braz/Chi/Ecua/Mex/Per/Venz) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200

41 Latam Distillates demand & imports (JODI,mbpd) Arg/Braz/Chi/Ecua/Mex/Per/Venz) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1, Demand (LH) Imports (RH)

42 East of Suez

43 Asia Distillates demand (JODI,mbpd) (China/India/Jap/Skor/Thai) 7,200 6,700 6,200 5,700 5,200 4,700 4,200 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

44 China Internal Retail Prices Yuan/MT 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 Gasoline Diesel 5,500 5,000

45 China Passenger Car Sales

46 250 Imports of Distillates (JODI, IEA, 000 b/d) Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 China Switzerland

47 China refinery runs (mbpd) 10,200 9,700 9,200 8,700 8,200 7,700 7,200 6,700 6,200 5,700 5,200 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

48 China refinery runs vs year ago (mbpd) 800 China crude oil refinery runs vs previous year (mbpd) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct

49 Refinery runs (mbpd) 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Europe China+India

50 600 Exports of Distillates (JODI, mbpd) Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 China India

51 Saudi Arabia Distillates demand ( JODI,mbpd) Demand Imports

52 Large Refinery expansion in Middle East next two years (mbpd) Saudi Jubail End 2012 UAE Ruwais end 2013 Saudi Yanbu end 2014

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