Rice Global E&C Forum August 9, 2013

Transcription

1 Rice Global E&C Forum August 9, 2013

2 Midyear Forecast: July 1, 2013 Conglin Xu, Senior Editor-Economics Laura Bell, Statistics Editor Alan Petzet, Chief Editor-Exploration Forecast & Review: Jan. 7, 2013 Worldwide Gas Processing: June 3, 2013 Warren R. True, Chief Technology Editor Worldwide Pipeline Construction: Feb. 4, 2013 Christopher Smith, Senior Technology Editor

3 % % E 2013F Red figures are forecasts from 2013 Forecast & Review (Jan.) Non-OECD OECD Source: IEA

4 % % Biofuels Proc. Gains OECD Non-OECD OPEC NGL OPEC crude E 2013F Source: IEA; OGJ estimates for OPEC crude, 2013

5 Demand Less non-opec supply Less OPEC NGL Equals zero stock-change call on OPEC Plus/minus stock change (OGJ) Equals. call on OPEC crude (OGJ) F&R: OPEC crude: 1Q13: 30.4 MMbd; 4Q12: 30.7 MMbd.

6 OPEC spare production capacity (MMbd) OECD commercial crude oil stocks (days supply)

7 Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, July 2013

8 Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, July 2013

9 25 20 Red figures are forecasts from 2013 Forecast & Review % % Other LPG, ethane Resid Jet fuel Distillate Gasoline E 2013F Source: EIA for ; OGJ estimates for 2013.

10 % % % % Gasoline Distillate Ethanol E 2013F Source: EIA for ; OGJ for 2013 Note: Gasoline includes ethanol. About 90% of distillate is 15 ppm S or below.

11 % % Renewable NGL US c&c E 2013F Source: EIA for

12 E 2013F E 2013F MMbd Tot. input Op. cap % of op. cap. Utilization Source: EIA for ; OGJ for 2013.

13 E 2013F -6 Source: EIA for ; OGJ for % % Crude exports Product exports Crude imports Product imports Net product exports: 1.14 MMbd in 2013

14 % E 2013F % Consumption Source: EIA for ; OGJ for 2013.

15 % % Other Gulf OCS Louisiana Texas E 2013F Source: EIA for ; OGJ for 2013.

16 % E 2013F % LNG Mexico Canada Exports -2-3 EIA says US will become net exporter of natural gas about Source: EIA for ; OGJ for 2013.

17 EIA June projection for 2013 average: $93/bbl EIA June projection for 2013 average: $3.92/MMbtu Oil ($/bbl) to gas ($/MMbtu) ratio: 24:1

18 2012E 2013F Exploratory wells 2,118 1,809 Field wells 41,551 36,349 Total wells 43,669 38,158 2,018 40,138 42,156 Gas-drilling retreat continues. Big 1H declines: N. La., Arkansas, parts of E. Tex., Penn., Mont., Calif. 1H increases: Ohio, Alaska, Offshore La.

19 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook

20 REGION NUMBER OF PLANTS CAPACITY (MMcfd) North, East Texas West Texas, Perm. basin South Texas 15 3,770 Okla.-Texas Panhandle 13 1,355 Ohio-Penn.-W.Virginia 26 4,613 North Dakota Total 76 11,933 *Built, under construction, and planned as of Apr. 1, Based on company data and published information. Source: Stephen Gilbert, MapSearch, published in OGJ s Worldwide Gas Processing, June 3, 2013.

21 REGIONS NUMBER OF PLANTS CAPACITY (Mb/d) Texas 20 1,208.5 Louisiana (one TBA) Kansas 1 60 Ohio-Penn.-W.Virginia Total 37 1,849+ *Built, under construction, and planned as of Apr. 1, Based on company data and published information. Source: Stephen Gilbert, MapSearch, published in OGJ s Worldwide Gas Processing, June 3, 2013.

22 Bakken shale to Midcontinent Midcontinent to Gulf Coast Rockies to W.Tex., Conway, Kan W.Tex. to Gulf Coast Marcellus, Utica to Gulf Coast Source: Fasullo, P., from 2013 GPA convention, in OGJ, June 3, 2013.

23 15 projects (grassroots, expansions, debottlenecking, restarts) Total identified capacity addition: million tonnes/year Implied increase in total US ethylene capacity: 28% Source: OGJ Worldwide Construction Survey, Nov. 12, 2012; OGJ Ethylene Report, July 2, 2012; subsequent OGJ news articles.

24 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 US Asia- Pac. US Canada L.America Asia-Pac. Europe Mideast Africa *Projects planned to be completed in Values are forecasts for given years.

25 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Asia-Pa c. US US Canada L.America Asia-Pac. Europe Mideast Africa *Projects under way at start of or set to begin in 2013 and be completed after Values are forecasts in given year.

26 United States Source: Energy Information Administration Canada Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

27 Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

28 WCSB takeaway vs. supply (MMbd) CAPP forecast: More transport capacity needed by Canadian rail transport Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

29 Source: Suncor Energy Investor Information, November TransCanada proceeding with Energy East

30 CO2 standards for new, existing power plants CO2 threshold for Keystone XL More renewable energy mandates, subsidies End tax breaks for big oil companies Tighten energy efficiency standards End public financing of new coal plants overseas