The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Todd Onderdonk June 213 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Energy Outlook Development countries 15 demand sectors 2 fuel types technology & policy

3 Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Quadrillion BTUs 7 Other Renewables 6 Nuclear Hydro 5 Gas 4 3 Oil 2 Coal Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196)

4 Population Trends Impact Energy Use World Population Billions of people

5 Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP Trillion 25$ 125 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs AAGR % AAGR % World 2.8% Other Non 3.9% World 1.% Energy Saved ~5 75 China 5.6% 75 5 Other 1.8% United States 2.3%

6 Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Demand Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

7 Transportation

8 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 6 Rail Marine Demand by Region MBDOE Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty AP NA Europe LA ME ROW

9 Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles Advanced* CNG LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline North America Europe Other China India Middle East Latin America Other Non *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

10 Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles Advanced* CNG LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline North America Europe Other China India Middle East Latin America Other Non *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

11 Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles PHV/EV Full Hybrid CNG LPG Diesel Conv Mogas Conv North America Europe Other China India Middle East Latin America Other Non *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

12 U.S. Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift Transportation MBDOE 15 1 Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Million Cars CNG/LPG PHV/EV Hybrid Conv. Diesel 5 Light Duty 5 Conv. Gasoline

13 Gas Into Transportation By Sector BCFD by Region BCFD 1 15 Rail Marine Heavy Duty Light Duty AP NA LA ME EU RC AF

14 Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel Non MBDOE MBDOE Other Natural Gas 3 3 Fuel Oil Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline

15 Refining Converts Oil Into Many Products Refining: Link between crude oil production and products demand LPG / Propane Chemicals feed Gasoline Refinery Aviation fuels Crude Oil Input Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil Diesel Refinery Lubes/Other Wax/Asphalt Source: U.S. Department of Labor

16 Industrial Energy Demand By Region Quadrillion BTUs 25 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25 2 Rest of Non 2 Market Heat Electricity Renewables 15 India 15 Coal China Gas 5 5 Oil

17 Electricity generation

18 Electricity Demand by Region Non Thousand TWh Thousand TWh Russia/Caspian Southeast Asia Other Non Middle East 1 Africa India 1 Other Europe 5 China 5 North America

19 Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity Baseload, Startup cents/kwh 16 $6/ton of CO 2 12 Reliability Cost 8 4 $/ton Coal Gas Nuclear Onshore Wind* Utility Solar PV* *Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission

20 U.S. Changing Electricity Generation Fuel Mix Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs 4 3 Wind & Solar Other Renewables Nuclear Growth versus 21 by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Generation CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons Coal Gas -1.5 Oil '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 '

21 United States Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 8 Res/Comm Industrial 8 Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear 6 6 Coal 4 Electricity Generation 4 Gas 2 Transportation 2 Oil

22 Tale of Two Worlds Non Quadrillion BTUs 5 4 Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Quadrillion BTUs Coal 3 2 Gas 2 Oil

23 CO 2 Emissions Plateau By Region Billion Tons 4 Emissions per Capita Tons per Person 2 3 Rest of Non 15 2 India 1 1 China China India U.S. Europe

24 Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs % % Average Growth / Yr % 1.% %.4% % 1.8% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo

25 Supply

26 Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (BBO) ~1, ~1, ~1, ~ Russia/Caspian Europe North America ~65 Middle East ~15 ~4,3 ~2 Asia Pacific Latin America Africa Global Source: IEA

27 Liquids Supply Supply by Type MBDOE 12 Biofuels Other Liquids Resource* TBO 6 NGLs 5 8 Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater 4 Remaining Resource Conventional Crude & Condensate 2 1 Cumulative Production * Source: IEA

28 North America Liquids Supply Grows North America Liquids Supply and Demand MBDOE 3 25 Liquids Demand 2 Net Imports Canadian Oil Sands Biofuels 15 Other Petroleum 1 5 Crude & Condensate

29 Remaining Global Gas Resource Over 2 years coverage at current demand North America Europe Russia/ Caspian* 4.8 TCF Unconventional Middle East Asia Pacific Conventional Latin America Africa World Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non

30 Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts North America Gas Supply BCFD 12 Global Gas Supply BCFD 6 LNG 5 Rest of World Unconventional 8 4 North America Unconventional 6 Local Unconventional Rest of World Conventional 2 Local Conventional North America Conventional

31 North America Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs Net Imports Oil Net Exports 2 Regional Supply Gas 4 3 Net Exports Total Energy Balance Net Imports Net Exports Regional Supply 2 Regional Supply

32 Regional Energy Trends Evolve By Region Percent of World Total North America 8 6 Europe Russia/Caspian China 4 Other AP Africa Middle East Latin America

33 Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent Other Renewables 8 Nuclear Hydro Gas 6 4 Oil 2 Coal Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196)

34 Conclusions

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