Growing Latin America: Feedstocks and Competitiveness

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1 MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM CHEMICAL Presentation Growing Latin America: Feedstocks and Competitiveness November 216 ihsmarkit.com Dr. Nick Rados, Global Business Director, Feedstocks ,

2 Contents APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Globalization of US Shale Renaissance Feedstock Position of the Americas Regional Competitive Outlook 2

3 APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Tight Oil & Shale Gas Renaissance Has Gone Global Oversupplied feedstocks till at least 225 Presently, energy is cheap (crude oil ~$45/bbl) E&P crude replacement economics tell us that crude price rise toward $9/bbl will happen opportunity for cheaper feedstocks Weaker demand growth expectations complicate decisions, but opportunities exist particularly in Latin America 3

4 Dollars Per Barrel APLA Feedstocks / November 216 High Cost of Crude Exploration & Production Will Result In Increasing Crude Prices Regional Crude Prices Crude prices minimum is behind us Due to slower economic growth, crude demand and prices will be suppressed, in the near term. Volatile, but steadily increasing prices are in the forecast WTI Cushing Brent FOB Dubai FOB 216 IHS 4

5 Dollar per Ton / Dollar per Ton Dollar per Barrel / Dollar per Barrel APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Naphtha and Propane Price / Crude Ratios Have Been on the Slide Naphtha / Brent US Price NGL Ratio Prices by - Weight Annual 1,6 Shale Oil & Gas 28 Propane / Brent US Price NGL Ratio Prices by - Volume Annual 1, Shale Oil & Gas 28 1,4 21,8 21 1,2 14,6 14 1, 7,4 7, Brent USGC WEP NEA 216 IHS Naphtha will remain bound between prices of crude oil and gasoline, Brent USGC WEP NEA 216 IHS Propane will be supported by naphtha based steam cracking cash costs 5

6 Million barrels per day Million metric tons per year Million barrels per day* APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Most of US Ethane Will Be Consumed in US Steam Crackers. US LPG* Exports Will Continue to Increase. US Ethane Demand and Rejection LPG Exports by Selected Major Exporters 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Rejection Exports Chemical Substitution Base Chemical Russia Nigeria Algeria North Sea United States Qatar UAE Saudi Arabia US 3,9 3,2 2,6 1,9 1,3,5 2 1,6,, * LPG = Liquid Petroleum Gas, a blend of Propane and Butane 6

7 APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Many Americas Fields Have Ample Amount of NGL: Ethane, Propane, Butane, Natural Gasoline Americas + Duvernay (Can) + Marcellus (USA) + Eagle Ford (USA) + Gran Chaco (Bol) + Pre-Salt (Bra) + Vaca Muerta (Arg) INEOS Russia Aramco China 7

8 MTA of Ethylene APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Latin America Steam Cracking Is Based Mostly on Ethane and Naphtha Feedstock 216 Steam Cracking Ethylene Production 3, Steam Cracking by Feedstock 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,, USA CAN BRA MEX ARG Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha 216 IHS Announced US ethane exports to Brazil as cracker feedstock NGL production additions from Braskem Idesa (Mexico) Vaca Muerta - Dow (Argentina) Gran Chaco (Bolivia) S. America NGL growth is stimulating future capacity additions may push back imports 8

9 Million tons of ethylene per year Million tons of ethylene per year APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Globally Ethylene Producers Are Trying to Increase Processing of Ethane and LPG Europe Steam Cracking Feedstock Demand 25 S. America Steam Cracking Feed Demand Naphtha is being substituted with gas (ethane + LPG) cracking No growth - like in Europe. No feedstock substitution. Imports = 85% of steam cracker demand Ethane LPG Naphtha Gas Oil 216 IHS Ethane LPG Naphtha Gas Oil 216 IHS 9

10 Constant 214$ Per MMBtu APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Low Crude Oil Prices Drive Increase In Regional Competitiveness In the Next 5 1 Years Crude Oil vs. Natural Gas Based Energy & Feedstocks 25 Gas Liquid Ethane 2 Switching Propane Enigma $ Brent Crude Henry Hub Gas USGC Ethane NEA Naphtha Notes: China Coal is on a 6kcal/kg basis, Qinhuangdao FOB 216 IHS 1

11 Dollars Per Metric Ton APLA Feedstocks / November 216 The Era of Feedstock Competition Ethylene Steam Cracking Cash Costs 1.5 Shale Oil & Gas 1. 5 NEA WEP US US Ethane US Propane WEP Propane NEA Naphtha NEA Propane 216 IHS 11

12 Dollars Per Metric Ton APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Brazil Imported Ethane Will Be Competitive. Domestic Propane Could Be Competitive. Ethylene Cash Cost ~$85/ton Adv. 8 6 ~$2/ton Adv. 4 2 U.S. Ethane Brazil Ethane Notes: Brazil is based on U.S. netback prices Cash Cost = Feed + VC + FC coproducts Western Canada US GTO China CTO Brazil Propane West Europe Naphtha Northeast Asia Naphtha Brazil Naphtha 216 IHS 12

13 Cents Per Pound APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Invest In Integrated Assets US LLDPE Chain Margins Ethane Cracking Basis Ethylene Margin From Ethane Cracking (cpp PE) PE Contract Margin - LLDPE Non Integrated 216 IHS 13

14 Dollars Per Metric Ton Ratio APLA Feedstocks / November 216 US Integrated HDPE and PP Margins Will Remain The Most Competitive Integrated HDPE Margins Cheap US Ethane PP Price / HDPE Ratio 1,4 1,2 US Needs PP 4 1, US Ethane - HDPE WEP Naphtha - HDPE SEA Naphtha - HDPE 216 IHS, US PP / HDPE WEP PP / HDPE China PP / HDPE 216 IHS 14

15 Cents Per Pound Dollars Per Metric Ton APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Integrated Propane Based Polypropylene Investments in N. America Make Sense Polypropylene Margins NAM Non-integrated WEP Non-integrated NAM PDH Integrated NEA PDH Integrated SEA Non-integrated 216 IHS

16 APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Petrochemical Competitiveness Country Feedstocks Energy Know-How Product Demand Outlook USA Ethane, LPG, Naphtha NG, Crude Yes Strong, Export 1 Middle East LPG, Naphtha LPG, Crude Fair Small, Export 2 W. Europe LPG, Naphtha NG, Crude Yes Fair, Export 2-3 Russia Ethane, LPG, Naphtha NG, Crude Yes Fair, 3 Argentina Ethane, LPG NG, LPG Fair Fair 3-2 Mexico LPG* Crude Fair Fair, 3 Brazil Imports NG, Crude Some Fair 4 China Imports No Coal Fair Strong, 4 India Imports Naphtha No Some Strong 5 For the USA, the difference was made with tight oil and shale gas Latin America, has similar opportunity, and growing domestic demand Europe benefits from proximity of cheap feedstocks. China and India need cheaper feedstock and energy 16

17 APLA Feedstocks / November 216 Summary Increasing crude prices advantage ethane & propane cracking Global propane and naphtha will be long, putting downward pressure on prices Latin America should adopt shale learnings of US and Canada faster Investment opportunity with domestic shale gas and no new olefin capacity additions in South America prior to 22 17

18 IHS Markit Customer Care: Americas: +1 8 IHS CARE ( ) Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 () Asia and the Pacific Rim: IHS Markit TM COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS Markit. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS Markit permission must display IHS Markit legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS Markit shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. IHS Markit and the IHS Markit logo are trademarks of IHS Markit.

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