International Rubber Study Group, London Economic and Social Institute, Amsterdam

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1 The future for natural rubber in the world rubber industry: availability, prices and substitution Paper prepared for the meeting of the Finnish Rubber Industry Helsinki 23 April 24 Presented by Fazilet Cinaralp, BLIC Prepared by Kees Burger and Hidde P. Smit Economic and Social Institute Amsterdam

2 This paper is based on the study The future of the tyre and rubber sector of China and consequences for the world rubber industry International Rubber Study Group, London Economic and Social Institute, Amsterdam

3 Contents of the current paper Vehicles, tyres and rubber The model: structure and estimation The future of the world economy Vehicles Tyres Consumption of rubber Price formation and consumption shares

4 The future of the world economy: Economic development

5 Economic activity is represented by Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

6 Growth in GDP World %

7 Projections for selected countries

8 Growth in GDP North America %

9 Growth in GDP Europe %

10 Growth in GDP Japan %

11 Growth in GDP China %

12 Growth in GDP Other Asia %

13 Growth in GDP Rest of the World %

14 Population by region (millions) North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

15 GDP per capita (in US$ of 2 ) North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

16 Passenger cars

17 Passenger cars in use million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

18 New registrations of passenger cars 25 2 million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

19 Production of passenger cars 25 2 million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

20 Commercial vehicles

21 Commercial vehicles in use million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

22 New registrations of commercial vehicles mill lions North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

23 Production of commercial vehicles million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

24 Tyres

25 Passenger car tyre sales million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

26 Passenger car tyres production million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

27 Passenger car tyre production World million ns

28 Net exports of passenger car tyres million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

29 Commercial vehicle tyre sales million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

30 Commercial vehicle tyre production million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

31 Commercial vehicle tyre production World millions

32 Commercial vehicle tyre net export million ns North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

33 Consumption of rubber tyres and tyre products

34 Rubber consumption tyres and tyre products 6 5 million to onnes North America Europe Japan China Other Asia Rest of the World

35 Consumption of rubber for general rubber goods

36 Rubber consumption general rubber goods million tonnes North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World

37 Total rubber consumption

38 Rubber consumption total million tonnes North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World

39 Rubber consumption World 3 25 onnes million t tyre sector general products total

40 Total rubber consumption 22 Other Asia 23% Rest of the World 9% North America 12% Europe 21% China 29% Japan 6%

41 Pi Price formation and consumption shares for natural rubber and synthetic rubber

42 Growth rates % normal natural rubber production total rubber consumption

43 Crude petroleum prices US$/ barre el

44 Rubber prices kg US$/ SBR, e.u.v. USA natural rubber IR, e.u.v. USA

45 Natural rubber production World 12 1 onnes million t without t additional planting with additional planting

46 Natural rubber consumption World 12 1 onnes million t without t additional substitution with additional substitution

47 Share NR in total rubber consumption % tyres and tyre products general rubber goods total

48 Consumption of rubber

49 Natural rubber consumption tyres and tyre products onnes 1.5 million t North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World

50 Synthetic rubber consumption tyres and tyre products onnes million t North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World

51 Natural rubber consumption general rubber goods onnes million t North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World

52 Synthetic rubber consumption general rubber goods onnes million t North America Europe Japan an China Other Asia Rest of the World

53 Natural rubber consumption World 12 1 tonnes thousand tyre sector general products total

54 Synthetic rubber consumption World thousand tonnes tyre sector general products total

55 Natural rubber consumption 22 Other Asia 3% Rest of the World 6% North America 14% Europe 17% Japan 7% China 26%

56 Synthetic rubber consumption 22 Other Asia 19% Rest of the World 8% North America 11% Europe 24% China 32% Japan 6%

57 The End Thank you! Fazilet Cinaralp

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