The Outlook for Energy:

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Paul L. Tanaka November 9, 2015 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Energy Outlook Development 100 countries 15 demand sectors trade flows 20 fuel types technology & policy 2

3 Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion GDP Trillion 2010$ Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Energy Saved Non OECD OECD 3

4 Electricity Generation Leads Growth Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm 4

5 Tale of Two Worlds Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs OECD Quadrillion BTUs Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 5

6 Transportation 6

7 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE Commercial Transportation by Region MBDOE Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty 2010 Light Duty 7

8 U.S. Heavy Duty Demand and Natural Gas Heavy Duty Demand MBDOE HDV Gas Demand BCFD Gas LPG Buses Medium Trucks Diesel Heavy Trucks Gasoline 8

9 Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Global Fleet by Type Million Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon Average Fleet Europe U.S. 9

10 Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency U.S. Fleet by Type Million Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon Average Fleet Europe U.S. 10

11 Today s Vehicle Technology Choices U.S. 5-Year Cost of Ownership vs Conventional 2014 $k Cost above Conventional ~$30k Fuel Savings 11

12 Transportation Fuel Demand World MBDOE United States MBDOE Fuel Oil Natural Gas Other Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline 12

13 Supply 13

14 Global Liquids and Gas Supply Supply by Type MBDOE Biofuels Other Liquids Global Gas Supply BCFD NGLs Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater New Conventional C&C Development Rest of World Asia Pacific North America Unconventional Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate Conventional 14

15 Liquids Trade Russia/Caspian North America Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Latin America Africa MBDOE Net Exports Net Imports 15

16 Natural Gas Trade Russia/Caspian North America Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Latin America Africa BCFD Net Exports Net Imports 16

17 Regional Energy Trends Evolve Demand by Region Quadrillion BTUs North America Europe Russia/Caspian China Other AP Africa Middle East Latin America 17

18 For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app

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20 Heavy Duty Transportation Heavy Duty Demand by Region MBDOE Heavy Duty Demand by Fuel MBDOE Other Gas Rest of World Key Growth India Diesel China OECD* Gasoline *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 20

21 Heavy Duty Efficiency Tempers Growth Intensity BOE / 2010$ k GDP By Region MBDOE Non OECD Non OECD OECD OECD 21

22 Gas Into Transportation 2040 by Region BCFD *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth Countries 22

23 U.S. Refining Crude Supply Percent Source: U.S. EIA, through Aug

24 Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Demand Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate North America 24

25 Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 25

26 Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD Unconventional Production Conventional Production Demand North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 26

27 CO 2 Emissions 27

28 World Emissions CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion metric tonnes Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person Rest of World 10 Key Growth 40 India China OECD* *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 28

29 U.S. Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions By Sector Billion Tonnes By Fuel Billion Tonnes Res/Comm Industrial Coal Electricity Generation Gas Transportation Liquids 29