Linu Mathew Philip. Centre for Trade and Development (Centad), New Delhi, India

Transcription

1 Linu Mathew Philip Centre for Trade and Development (Centad), New Delhi, India Regional Dialogue in Biofuels in Asia 9-10 November 2009

2 Relevance of Biofuel in the new context Trends Production Consumption Trade Price Economics of Biofuel Future Prospects

3 Growing rural-urban divide Highly volatile crude oil prices Demand for growth Energy Option Green fuel and climate change adaptation Next

4 Biofuel can provide (UNEP Report 2009) Connectivity Renewable energy Multiple opportunities for additional income Rural development Access to energy Transport infrastructure Technology interface

5 Next

6 Renewable Energy share of GFEC (2006) Next

7 Comparison of Biofuel with fossil fuel for transport differentiated by phases Next

8 EU Leads in the Biodiesel production More than 50 percentage of the biodiesel production US also considerably expanding it growth (14% pa) High growth in biodiesel production Argentina Indonesia Ethanol USA producing more than 50 percentage EU also growing at a fast pace (around 10 % pa)

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10 US Biofuel Consumption highest with 47% Followed by Brazil with 30 percentage Ethanol Consumption in the world have been over 10 billion gallons Increasing at the rate of 5 percentage pa Biodiesel consumption 4 billion gallons Increasing at faster rate

11 Ethanol price increasing ($1.76/gl) Biodiesel price price increased to $5 Biofuel prices Joint demand with crude oil Move together Price have been linked to imports of key countries

12 6 Trend in Biofuel prices 5 4 $ per gallon 3 Ethanol Brazil Ethanol US Biodiesel Europe Biodiesel World Year FAPRI 2009

13 The biofuels an increasing trend Volume increased Ethanol ~1.5 billion gallons Biodiesel ~1 billion gallons Major gainers East asia countries on Biodiesel Brazil and China on Ethanol

14 Ethanol Trade (Million Gallons Net Exporters ) Brazil 1,165 1,169 1,466 1,820 2,124 2,395 2,818 3,268 3,647 4,236 4,896 China Total Net Exports * 1,216 1,201 1,479 1,820 2,124 2,395 2,818 3,268 3,647 4,236 4,896 Net Importers Canada European Union India Japan South Korea United States ,037 1,211 1,605 2,070 ROW Total Net Imports * 1,216 1,201 1,479 1,820 2,124 2,395 2,818 3,268 3,647 4,236 4,896

15 Biodiesel Trade (Million Net Exporters Gallons) Argentina Brazil Indonesia Malaysia United States Total Net Exports * Net Importers European Union Japan ROW Total Net Imports *

16 Rising prices of crude oil has made the biofuel more competitive Technology critical to the production Subsidies essential Cost of Biofuel Production (cost per barrel in USD) Year Crude Oil Biodiesel Bioethanol Note: One barrel = 159 litres Source: (assessed 9 June 2008)

17 Biofuel and EGS Mix up between Agricultural and NAMA Climate Change dimension Acceptance Compliance Stimulate a fresh investment Regional integration Supply chain of biofuel Stimulate flow of agricultural products Asia supply set to increase with technology and investment

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19 Upward trend With Climate Change EGS Supply and demand expected to converge Food prices and Biofuel Higher growth and need for transportation Technology will remain key

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21 Biofuel critical for bridging rural-urban divide Integrated Approach of Food and Energy Security Imports will be push factor in biofuel energisation Subsidies will remain a bone of contention in Biofuel May not restrict expansion of biofuel Biofuel and Environmental degradation Additional Research and Development needed Certification and regulation challenges Technology and investment flows