TABLE OF CONTENTS OECD/IEA, 2017

Transcription

1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword... 3 Acknowledgements... 4 Executive Summary Coal s decade of stagnation While some demand centres are in decline, others are taking off High prices endure, along with volatility Uncertainty is the main certainty for coal trade Understanding priorities in China Coal still advances in India Better times for US coal? New boost in CCUS is pivotal Recent trends in demand and supply Highlights Demand OECD demand trends OECD non-member demand trends Supply OECD supply trends OECD non-member supply trends References Recent trends in international coal trading Highlights The international coal market International thermal coal trade International met coal trade Regional analysis Exporters Importers Prices Seaborne thermal coal prices and regional arbitrage Seaborne met coal prices Coal forward prices COAL 2017

2 Coal derivatives Coal supply costs Development of input factor prices Currency exchange rates Dry bulk shipping market Development of coal supply costs References Medium-term forecast of demand and supply Highlights Methodology Assumptions Global coal demand forecast OECD coal demand forecast, OECD non-member coal demand forecast, Global coal supply forecast References Medium-term forecast of seaborne coal trade Highlights Methodology and assumptions Seaborne coal trade forecast Seaborne thermal coal trade forecast, Seaborne met coal trade forecast, References Capacity investment outlook Highlights Are coal prices high enough to trigger investment? Investment in export mining capacity Regional analysis Australia Colombia South Africa Mozambique Russia Indonesia COAL

3 Canada United States Mongolia References Annex Annex Glossary LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Figure 1.2 Figure 1.3 Figure 1.4 Figure 1.5 Figure 1.6 Figure 1.7 Figure 1.8 Figure 1.9 Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 2.4 Figure 2.5 Figure 2.6 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.8 Figure 2.9 Figure 2.10 Figure 2.11 Figure 2.12 Figure 2.13 Figure 2.14 Replacement of coal-fired generation in the United Kingdom, Coal-based electricity generation in selected OECD countries: Absolute changes, Monthly year-on-year differences in crude steel production in OECD member countries, Coal-based electricity generation in selected OECD non-member economies Capability of current flue gas treatment systems Monthly year-on-year differences in crude steel production in OECD non-member economies, CCP production and consumption in the Unites States, Monthly year-on-year differences in coal mining in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi, 2016 compared with Calorific value of Indonesian coal exports in Market development of seaborne thermal (left) and met coal (right), Australian exports of thermal coal (left) and met coal (right), Monthly y-o-y differences in Indonesian exports to China (2016 in comparison with 2015) Indonesian export destinations, Colombian export destinations, South African export destinations, US exports of thermal coal (left) and met coal (right), Chinese coal imports, Monthly year-on-year differences in Chinese imports, Indian coal imports by country, Marker prices for different types of coal, Weekly Qinhuangdao price evolution, Thermal coal price markers in Europe, China and Colombia, Colombian exports to Asia COAL 2017

4 Figure 2.15 Price markers for different thermal coal qualities in South Africa and Australia, standardised to an energy content of kcal/kg, Figure 2.16 Hard coking coal prices and developments affecting supply Figure 2.17 Coking coal price and monthly year-on-year BFI production growth, Figure 2.18 Forward curves of API 2 (left) and API 4 (right), Figure 2.19 Trade volumes for coal derivatives, Figure 2.20 Indexed nominal prices of selected commodities used in coal mining Figure 2.21 Average coal-mining fuel costs (left axis) and their share in total mining costs (right axis), Figure 2.22 Average coal-mining labour costs (left axis) and their share in total mining costs (right axis), Figure 2.23 Mining cash-cost components, averages and value ranges, Figure 2.24 Indexed development of the USD against selected currencies Figure 2.25 FOB steam coal prices in USD and local currency, Figure 2.26 Bulk carrier fleet, Figure 2.27 Selected freight rates, Figure 2.28 Indicative steam coal supply costs to north-western Europe, Figure 2.29 Indonesian steam coal supply cost curves, Figure 2.30 Indicative coking coal FOB cost curves and FOB prices, Figure 3.1 Implied marginal costs of coal- and gas-fired electricity generation, Figure 3.2 Projected thermal coal and lignite demand for OECD member countries Figure 3.3 Indicative merit order for the German electricity market Figure 3.4 Coal-to-gas competition in the German electricity market, historically (left) and in the future (right) Figure 3.5 Thermal coal and lignite demand shares, Poland and Germany Figure 3.6 Share of coal in EU countries power generation (2016), capacity and BREF votes Figure 3.7 Projected met coal demand for OECD member countries Figure 3.8 Projected thermal coal and lignite demand for OECD non-member economies Figure 3.9 Per capita electricity consumption of selected countries, Figure 3.10 Projected met coal demand for OECD non-member economies Figure 3.11 Projected thermal coal and lignite supply Figure 3.12 Projected met coal supply Figure 4.1 Projected total export volumes in international steam (left) and met coal (right) Figure 4.2 Projected seaborne thermal coal imports Figure 4.3 Southern Chinese seaborne domestic and import supply cost curve (FOB) in 2016 (left) and 2022 (right) Figure 4.4 Korean coal import tax scheme Figure 4.5 Korea s coal and gas generation capacity and load factor, Figure 4.6 Variable costs by case Figure 4.7 Thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants and gas-fired CCGTs COAL

5 Figure 4.8 Figure 4.9 Figure 4.10 Projected seaborne thermal coal exports Projected seaborne met coal imports Projected seaborne met coal exports LIST OF MAPS Map 2.1 Main trade flows in the seaborne thermal coal market, 2016 (Mt) Map 2.2 Main trade flows in the seaborne met coal market, 2016 (Mt) Map 3.1 Incremental global coal demand (Mtce) Map 3.2 Coal-to-gas switch in industrial boilers in China (Mt of coal avoided) Map 3.3 Coal power plants in Pakistan Map 4.1 Main Indian plants based on imported coal and ports, Map 5.1 Cumulative capacity of hard coal export mining projects, LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Coal demand overview Table 1.2 Hard coal and lignite consumption in selected OECD member countries (Mt) Table 1.3 Korean coal-fired power plants commissioned in Table 1.4 Hard coal and lignite consumption in selected OECD non-member economies (Mt) Table 1.5 Coal supply overview Table 1.6 Hard coal and lignite production in selected OECD member countries (Mt) Table 1.7 Hard coal and lignite production in selected OECD non-member economies (Mt) Table 2.1 Thermal coal exports in 2016 (Mt) and net changes from 2015 (colour-coded) Table 3.1 Remaining nuclear power plants in Germany and latest decommissioning dates Table 3.2 Japanese coal-fired power plants under construction Table 3.3 Korean coal-fired power plants older than 30 years Table 3.4 Korean coal-fired power plants under construction Table 3.5 Selected large Indonesian coal-fired power plants under construction Table 4.1 UHV lines commissioned in Table 4.2 Coal and gas tax scheme Table A.1 Coal demand, , forecast (million tonnes of coal equivalent [Mtce]) Table A.2 Thermal coal and lignite demand, , forecast (Mtce) Table A.3 Metallurgical (met) coal demand, , forecast (Mtce) Table A.4 Coal production, , forecast (Mtce) Table A.5 Thermal coal and lignite production, , forecast (Mtce) Table A.6 Met coal production, , forecast (Mtce) Table A.7 Seaborne steam coal imports, , forecast (Mtce) Table A.8 Seaborne steam coal exports, , forecast (Mtce) COAL 2017

6 Table A.9 Seaborne met coal imports, , forecast (Mtce) Table A.10 Seaborne met coal exports, , forecast (Mtce) Table A.11 Current coal mining projects LIST OF BOXES Box 1.1 Emissions, concentrations and air quality Box 1.2 Coal ash, turning a burden into value Box 2.1 Déjà vu in Queensland Box 3.1 Fuel switch in Germany: What prices are necessary? Box 3.2 European Union on its way out of coal Box 3.3 Pakistan switching on Box 3.4 Supply-side reforms in China s coal industry Box 4.1 Reducing coal imports through UHV line construction Box 4.2 Interpreting Indian acronyms Box 4.3 Korea s changing energy policy approach Box 5.1 Success and setbacks for CCS coal-fired power in COAL