Technology & investments responses to market and regulatory developments

Transcription

1 Technology & investments responses to market and regulatory developments Baudouin Kelecom JRC Conference 1 st October This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's 1 internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent 1 Other Renewables 8 Nuclear Hydro Gas 6 4 Oil 2 Coal Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196) 2

3 Regional Energy Trends Evolve 1 By Region Percent North America 8 Europe Russia/Caspian 6 China India Southeast Asia Other AP Africa Middle East Latin America 3 ExxonMobil 212 Outlook for Energy

4 Global Efficiency Minimizes Demand Growth Demand Quadrillion BTUs Energy per GDP MBTU / 25$ GDP What demand would be without efficiency gains ~5 Quads % Constant 21 Level % 4 2.9% Average Growth / Yr ExxonMobil 212 Outlook for Energy 4

5 Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector k TWh Fuel Into Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs 35 3 Transportation Renewables 3 25 Wind 25 2 Nuclear 2 15 Residential/Commercial 15 Coal Industrial 5 Gas Oil ExxonMobil 212 Outlook for Energy

6 Economic Choices for Europe Electricity 2 Baseload, Startup Eurocents/KWh $/ton CO 2 15 Residential PV 1 Large PV, Thermal 5 Coal Gas Nuclear Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Solar *1 Euro = 1.4 USD ExxonMobil 212 Outlook for Energy 6

7 Economic Choices for Europe Electricity 2 Baseload, Startup Eurocents/KWh $6/ton CO 2 15 Residential PV 1 Large PV, Thermal 5 Coal Gas Nuclear Onshore Wind *1 Euro = 1.4 USD ExxonMobil 212 Outlook for Energy Offshore Wind Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Solar *Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission 7

8 Commercial Transport drives WW Demand Growth Commercial MBDOE Personal MBDOE 5 5 Rail 4 Marine 4 3 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles 1 Light Duty Vehicles ExxonMobil 212 Outlook for Energy

9 Europe Personal Transportation Demand Falls Transportation MBDOE Demand Changes MBDOE 1 8 Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty 4 Fleet Distance per Vehicle Mandated Other 2 Light Duty 2 Fuel Economy ExxonMobil 212 Outlook for Energy

10 Dieselisation of EU demand Evolution of the middle distillate / gasoline demand ratio for refined products only Source: CONCAWE 1

11 Biodiesel GHG s* may be less positive than Ethanol ** Source: IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) study for the EU * GHG s Green houses Gases ** LUC Land Use Change 11

12 Integrated set of solutions increase efficiency Technology mitigate emissions expand supply 12

13 Expand supply: upstream technology opportunities evaluation success 4D Imaging Directional drilling Rapid Reservoir Performance Prediction Bitumen recovery Shale Oil Recovery Floating production storage, offloading vessel (FPSO) and minimize environmental 13 footprint Unlocking Tight & Shale Gas Large LNG Production Advanced Hydrocarbon Detection (R 3 M SM ) Breakthrough technologies help meet rising global energy demand

14 Increase efficiency well to tank crude recovery crude transportation crude refining to products product storage & transportation retail site fuel vehicle production of fuel 15% GHG fuel use 85% GHG Cogeneration X to Liquids Gasifier Carbon Sequestration 14

15 Historical Overview Antwerp 1953 Start-up of the Antwerp Refinery 1956 Expansion 1971 Commissioning of Rotterdam-Antwerp crude pipeline Installation of Ethylene Terminal 1976 Start-up of Modernized Refinery, 1981 Major investment for Energy Conservation 1984 Expansion of Ethylene Terminal 1985 Revamp FCCU for higher conversion 1991 Start-up Alkylation and Higher Olefins Plant 1993 Start-up 45 MW Cogen unit: co-investment with Electrabel 1997 Installation of VRU units 26 Capacity expansion to 28 Start-up new 13 MW Cogen 211 Start-up Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Unit 15

16 New Cogen in MW of electricity = needs of 3, homes = production of 23 wind turbines Steam and process heating CO2 emissions reduced by 2, tonnes/yr = removing 9, cars from the roads 16

17 New Diesel Desulphurization Unit in 211 Produces ultra low sulphur diesel The annual production of this lower sulphur diesel in Antwerp will be equal to the annual consumption of 2 million diesel cars 1 million workhours in construction phase 17 Modular built

18 Increase efficiency tank to wheel crude recovery crude transportation crude refining to products product storage & transportation production of fuel 15% GHG retail site fuel vehicle fuel use 85% GHG Combustion fundamentals Lithium battery films On board reforming Advanced Biofuels 18

19 Fuels for Advanced Combustion Motivation for CONCAWE s advanced combustion studies 1. Understand fuel needs of future advanced combustion engines 2. Explore whether efficient gasoline-fuelled engines could help correct the European diesel/gasoline imbalance Extensive test programme completed on bench engine and demo vehicle Diesel single-cylinder engine optimised for low temperature combustion Engine equipped with CLCC quite tolerant of a wide range of fuels Conclusion: a special fuel is NOT a requirement for advanced combustion diesel engines Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement Study results have been extensively published through CONCAWE Reports and technical papers CONCAWE Reports and Publications Part 1: Impact of engine on HCCI combustion (Rpt 9/1 & SAE ) Part 2: Impact of fuels on HCCI combustion (Rpt 1/1 & SAE ) Part 3: Advanced combustion in a demonstrator vehicle Results from the demo vehicle study (Part 3) presented at TAE Esslingen (1/211) and AEC-MOU Working Group on HCCI (9/21 and 9/211) 19

20 Demo Vehicle Study: Six Fuels Selected Total Aromatics (% m/m) Diesel Kerosene Gasoline-like Dieseline Naphtha Refinery Naphtha 1 Dieseline Refinery Naphtha 2 Kerosene PRF Derived Cetane Number (DCN) EN59 Baseline Diesel Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement See SAE and -245 for bench engine results on other fuels 2

21 Demo Vehicle: Fuels for Advanced Combustion Fuel flexibility achieved through Closed Loop Combustion Control of injection timing and sophisticated engine control system Vehicle was able to operate on diesel and other fuels without recalibration Efficiency matched or exceeded current diesel capability Euro 6 NOx limit could be met engine-out without catalyst for four fuels PM varied between fuels but was treatable by DPF A good oxycat would be needed to reduce HC and CO emissions 18 Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement CO 2 and NOx emissions over the NEDC measured on FEV s advanced combustion vehicle without NOx aftertreatment Duplicate tests on same fuel are shown CO2 [g/km] g CO 2 /km for reference 2.2L vehicle 145g CO 2 /km target Baseline Diesel1 Kerosene PRF 25 'Dieseline1' Refinery Naphtha 1 Refinery Naphtha 2 Euro 6 NOx Limit NOx [g/km] Diesel engine-based vehicle runs on a wide range of fuels, but higher octane gasoline presented problems achieving NOx and CO 2 targets 21

22 Implications summary Global energy demand will increase by 3% Energy savings through 24 will be 3 times the projected energy growth Europe energy consumption in transport will be essentially flat World fuels and especially European fuels are moving towards Diesel An engine with diesel-like efficiency operating on gasoline-range fuel would offer substantive WTW (Well to Wheel) benefits All economic energy sources should be pursued towards 24 Science, WTW cost/benefit analyses should inform legislative initiatives When countries legislate GHG, economy-wide, predictable GHG costs shape business plans and investments Market prices including CO 2 costs allocate resources most efficiently to help ensure reliable, affordable energy 22

23 Annexes 23

24 CO 2 Abatement Economic in Europe Europe Cost of CO 2 Avoidance /Ton 1 st Gen Ethanol 4 CNG PHVs Fuel Cells vs. Existing Light Duty Vehicles vs. New Coal 3 2 nd Gen Ethanol Solar PV 2 Full Hybrids 1 Coal + CCS Solar Thermal Existing Gas* Gas Nuclear Wind Gas + CCS Start-Stop Hybrids -1 *Higher utilization of existing gas vs. existing coal Conventional Engine Improvements Source: JEC (27), CARB (March 29), EIA AEO 24

25 Electricity Supply Varies Globally United States k TWh k TWh Europe China k TWh Gas w/ CCS 4 Gas 4 4 Coal w/ CCS 2 Coal Nuclear 2 2 Wind Oil Other Renewables * Generation by Type ExxonMobil 212 Outlook for Energy

26 Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases Production by Type BCFD 6 Demand by Region BCFD 6 5 Conventional Unconventional 5 Rest of Non OECD 4 4 Russia/Caspian Middle East 3 3 AP Non OECD 2 2 Rest of OECD 1 1 North America ExxonMobil 212 Outlook for Energy

27 Demo Vehicle Study: Objectives and Fuel Properties Objectives: Meet Euro 6+ NOx emissions levels by using high levels of cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) and without using additional NOx aftertreatment Diesel Demonstrator Vehicle over the regulatory New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) Similar hardware to that used in the single-cylinder engine study CO 2 and regulated emissions, with focus on engine-out NOx & PM Achieving study objective required more air/fuel pre-mixing and lower combustion temperatures Study the impact of fuel properties on advanced diesel combustion performance 1, including the effects of: Ignition Quality: by varying Derived Cetane Number (DCN) Volatility: by testing diesel, kerosene, & naphtha fuels Composition: by varying the Total Aromatics Content Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement 1) Source: CONCAWE Report 4/8 (28) 27

28 Demo Vehicle: FEV s High Efficiency Combustion System Properties Demonstrator Vehicle Stroke 88.3 mm Bore Diameter 75 mm Swept Volume 156 cm³ Compression Ratio 15 Valves per Cylinder 4 Valve Lift 8 mm Cylinder Peak Pressure 2 bar Fuel Injection System Bosch Piezo Common Rail System Maximum Injection Pressure 2 bar Nozzle 8 x 153 Nozzle Hole Diameter 19 µm Hydraulic Flow Rate 31 cm³ / 3 seconds Charge Air Cooling Level Valeo Euro 6 System Constant Center of Combustion Combustion Control for all fuels by means of Closed Loop Combustion Control Glow Plug BERU Pressure Sensor Glow Plug EGR System High Pressure & Low Pressure Loops Aftertreatment Diesel Particulate Filter & Oxycat Emission Level Euro 6 Vehicle Weight 159 kg Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement 28

29 How to Fuel the Advanced Combustion Vehicle? Gasoline & Diesel Delivered to Station New Product Delivered to Station Blending Pump at Service Station? Refinery Separate Pump at Service Station? Diesel or Gasoline Fuel Low Cetane Fuel: or a Dieseline Blend Fossil or BTL Naphtha Both options would require a new fuel grade and vehicle modifications Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement 29