A pathway for the evolution of the refining industry and liquid fuels in Europe

Transcription

1 VISION 2050 A pathway for the evolution of the refining industry and liquid fuels in Europe September 2018 Liesbeth Jansen Industry Liaison Officer, Kuwait Petroleum Research & Technology

2 About Q8 Research Over 50 years of petroleum research & development experience Centre of Excellence for (alternative) fuels, lubricants & bitumen Expertise in catalysis for e.g. hydrodesulphurisation State of the are analytical & characterization laboratories 40+ scientist & support staff 2

3 Changing Landscapes ULSFO ULSDiesel COP21 New car technology Major Events: Majors to change strategy 1. Paris COP 21 Climate agreement max. 2 C temperature rise 2. Diesel gate (Volkswagen scandal) / Ban of diesel vehicles in various cities (e.g. Paris, London) 3. IMO decision: ultra low sulphur fuel oil introduction in Electrification vehicles - alternative fuel sources 3

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5 FuelsEurope represents 41 Member Companies 100% of EU Refining Page 5

6 Vision preamble FuelsEurope: climate change is real and warrants action Challenge: increasing energy demand & limiting GHG emissions The EU refining industry contribution to this challenge: Gradually transitioning to low carbon feedstocks Further increasing GHG efficiency in refineries Page 6

7 Change in world oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario of IEA WEO 2017 Source: IEA WEO 2017 Page 7

8 EU refineries are important 0.9% of the EU GDP (1) 1. FOR THE EU ECONOMY 2. FOR GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT 3. FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY Every 100 units of CO2 emissions reduced in the EU are replaced by 135 units outside the EU (2) 1.3 million 1.3 mln jobs EU in jobs the in EU. total (1) (1) Source: EU Refining Fitness Check (EU Commission, Jan. 2016) (2) Source: Vivid Economics for UK DECC Case study on Refining - Carbon leakage prospects under Phase III of the EU ETS and beyond Page 8

9 Consumption of oil EU-28, 2015 (1) Petchem feedstock Others 10% 25% 65% T r a n s p o r t 48% 9% 8% Road Aviation Shipping (1) Based on EUROSTAT, Page 9 and WoodMackenzie product markets long-term outlook H Demand in EU 28, NOR, CH, ISL for 2015

10 Considerations Transport modalities are based on liquid fuels High political incentives for electrification Not all transport modes can be electrified On a well-to-wheel bases there is no zero emission vehicle Page 10

11 CO2eq EMISSIONS (TONNES) The competitiveness of European refining: facing the challenges A technology-neutral regulatory framework is needed 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 - (5,0) 13,6 6,6 6,6 New Nissan Leaf 16,7 16,9 10,7 Toyota Prius Hybrid Urban cycle Mercedes A Class DISTANCE (km) 27,2 19,9 14,8 28,3 23,3 38,0 Toyota Prius Hybr. Mixed cycle 19,4 Nissan Leaf - TTW Source: Concawe 2017, based on studies from Trondheim University, JEC & ICCT Page 11

12 There are no zero-emission vehicles well-to-wheel GHG emissions (gco 2 eq/km) Internal combustion engine Electric Fuel cell H2 (e_lysis, wind) BEV (EUmix) H2 (NG, 7000 km) PHEV (EUmix) B7 CNG Diesel LPG BEV (coal) E10 H2 (e_lysis, EU mix) Gasoline Source: JEC / NEDC based C-segment cars Page 12

13 The answer: low carbon liquid fuels and products Page 13

14 Not only fuels EU policy 2050: zero emission fuels However, still need for other fuels and other products, e.g. lubricants Page 14

15 Combined Carbon Intensity Reduction The competitiveness of European refining: facing the challenges We have the technologies Refinery Efficiency CCS/CCU Multiple technologies can be deployed together to give significant reduction in carbon intensity of liquid fuels Green Hydrogen Fuel Quality Sustainable Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Power-to- Liquids Reduced carbon footprint of Petroleum refining Increasing substitution of Petroleum with new feedstocks and components Standard Current first examples New proposed strategy Page 15

16 Examples: Refinery Efficiency Refineries gradually use more energy: - Increased complexity - Tighter product specification However, more efficient operations: - 13 % efficiency improvement since 1992 EU refineries energy consumption and efficiency trends relative to 1992 (Source: Solomon Associates, reported in [Concawe 3/13]) Page 16

17 Examples: Fuel Quality & Sustainable Fuels High Octane Fuels - CO 2 benefit by allowing optimisation engine technology Sustainable Fuels already in place e.g.: 1 st generation biofuels such as biodiesel, (FAME), hydrogenated vegetable oil and ethanol 2 nd generation biofuel from waste and used cooking oil Page 17

18 Example: CCS applied to a cluster of industries CCS in the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) Page 18

19 Example: waste-to-fuel Integration of different kits of waste into oil refining processes. Page 19

20 Example: Algae could be the fuel of tomorrow Page 20

21 Example: e-fuels - Liquid electricity for existing infrastructure Carbon Capturing CO 2 from unavoidable sources Conversion! Sunfire Ready-to-Use Direct effect on existing EU fleet Infrastructure compatible No-regret measure Source: Page 9

22 The refinery as an ENERGY HUB within an INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER Renewable Electricity CCS / CCU Low GHG Petrochemicals Crude oil Bio-feedstocks CO2 Waste Low-GHG products Low-GHG fuels Residual heat Standard Current first examples New proposed strategy Page 22

23 Why is this an attractive solution for the EU? Industrial clusters exploit synergies & jointly develop innovative low carbon technologies Low carbon liquid fuels reduce emissions of all the vehicles in circulation immediately Continuation of well established Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) technologies Continuation automotive lubricant technology Full utilisation of existing infrastructure from refineries to service stations Industrial opportunity for EU to export technologies to the rest of the world Skilled jobs, energy security, technological leadership for EU economy Page 23

24 Thank you for your attention.