DECARBONISATION OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR CONSIDERING GLOBAL LEARNING AND FLEXIBILITY POTENTIAL FOR THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM

Transcription

1 DECARBONISATION OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR CONSIDERING GLOBAL LEARNING AND FLEXIBILITY POTENTIAL FOR THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM Stephanie Heitel, Dr. Michael Krail - Fraunhofer ISI Katrin Seddig, Dr. Patrick Jochem - KIT-IIP Final REFLEX Stakeholder Workshop Brussels,

2 3 main strategies to decarbonize the transport sector 1. Shift to more efficient transport modes Diffusion of low/zero-emission technologies Alternative fuels Batteries & electrification Synthetic PtX fuels via electrolysis Further alternative fuels Cars Trucks Busses Ships Light trucks & urban busses: Batteries BEV, PHEV Long-distance trucks: Electric Trolley FCEV with PtG-H2 P t G - m et h a n e PtLdiesel & PtL-gasoline C N G LPG L N G B io m et h a n e Bioethanol & Biodiesel Airplanes Rail Further electrification PtL-kerosene Biokerosene 2

3 EFFICIENCY Flexibility potential and efficiency of decarbonisation options HIGH Mode shift to rail, IWW, public transport and active modes Further electrification of rail Trolley trucks BEV without load shifting BEV with fast charging share of BEV car owners allowing load shifting BEV with load shifting, charging at home... at home & at work MEDIUM FCEV & imported PtH 2 FCEV & H 2 electrolysis in Europe LOW Imported PtX-fuels and biofuels 0 0 FLEXIBILITY 3

4 Selected options for decarbonisation in High-RES scenarios Batteries & electrification Synthetic PtX fuels via electrolysis Further alternative fuels Cars BEV, PHEV LPG B io Trucks Busses Ships Light trucks & urban busses: Batteries Longdistance trucks: Electric Trolley H2 P t G - m et h a n e C N G L N G - m e t h a n e FCEV with PtG- PtLdiesel & PtLgasoline Bioethanol & Biodiesel Airplanes PtL-kerosene Bio-kerosene Rail Further electrification Selected technology and fuel options considering efficiency and flexibility 4

5 Scenario assumptions Mod-RES Reference High-Res central High-Res decentral Goal Transport policies Technology diffusion & deployment CO 2 -Emission reduction Efficiency of transport system Pushing low-/zeroemission vehicles Diffusion of electric cars Diffusion of fuel cells for trucks Hydrogen production Low Low Slight Low Low Central High High Strong Fast Fast Decentral Roadmap COM : -54 to -67% Target -60% by using digital technologies, smart pricing, etc. by fuel and vehicle taxation, investments in refuelling infrastructure, stricter fuel efficiency standards, etc. Battery price decline simulated via experience curves, EVs favourable for roof-top PV owners, phase-out based on infrastructure deployment, policies, R&D and subsidies, higher perceived reliability in centralized energy system large plants vs. on-site Behavioural aspects Share of electric vehicles allowing load Low shifting, use of car sharing & active modes High consumers more familiar with demand side management in decentralized energy world 5

6 Methodology: Modelling Approach ASTRA - Assessment of Transport Strategies Main characteristics: System Dynamics - Vensim software 1995 to 2050 EU28 + CH/NO Modular structure Simulation of single policy measures and bundles Technology diffusion based on an adapted total cost of ownership approach 6

7 Simulating the vehicle technology choice in ASTRA Drivers of the choice Total Cost of Ownership Investment costs incl. experience curves Discrete choice to estimate the behav iour Fuel / electricity prices Consumption per vkm Taxes, insurance, road charges, maintenance costs Cost for energy consumption Logit function Technology share Filling/ Charging station infrastructure Range of vehicles Fuel procurement cost residual disutility 7

8 Simulating global learning for electric cars by model coupling ASTRA Sales Europe exchange of sales numbers until prices are stable Accumulated sales Experience curve Battery price per kwh TE3 Sales Rest of World Katrin Seddig, Patrick Jochem - KIT-IIP 8

9 Mod-RES High-RES Mod-RES High-RES Mod-RES High-RES Mod-RES High-RES Mod-RES High-RES Mod-RES High-RES Mod-RES High-RES Million expected industry experience Scenario results of TE3 development of key non-eu car markets 50 B 400 Development of total car stock of BEV until 2050 in key non-eu car markets kw*h 37.5 BEffects on cumulative battery capacity TWh expected industry experience by type of EV 25 B 50 B B 200 kw*h 12.5 B 25 B China INDIA JAPAN US China has by 2050 the dominant BEV stock, both in Mod-RES and High-RES scenario 12.5 B Time (Yea Time (Year) expected industry experience by type of EV[PHEV] : AS4 expected industry experience by type of EV[PHEV] : RS7 expected industry experience by type of EV[BEV] : AS4 expected industry experience by type of EV[BEV] : RS7 expected industry Cumulated experience battery by type capacity of EV[PHEV] PHEV: High-RES : AS4 expected industry Cumulated experience battery by type capacity of EV[PHEV] PHEV: Mod-RES : RS7 expected industry Cumulated experience battery by type capacity of EV[BEV] BEV: High-RES : AS4 expected industry Cumulated experience battery by type capacity of EV[BEV] BEV: Mod-RES : RS7 Battery capacity doubled for High-RES in comparison to Mod-RES for BEV Katrin Seddig, Patrick Jochem - KIT-IIP 9

10 Scenario results for EU28: Emissions and drivers Modal shift for freight & passengers Diffusion of electric drives & fuel efficiency improvements for all road vehicles Increase of biofuel share, in particular for non-road modes + 6% - 60% - 60% Tank-to-wheel CO 2 emissions in Mt 10

11 Scenario results for EU28: Fleet technology composition Cars Trucks Main drivers of the BEV/PHEV diffusion Soon competitive prices due to worldwide production of batteries Charging infrastructure and increased ranges Inducements for PV-owners to buy BEV/PHEV Phase-out implementation of pure Internal Combustion Engine cars by 2040 Main drivers of the FCEV diffusion R&D and subsidies for acceptable prices Reliable H 2 -refueling infrastructure deployment for trucks along motorways including sufficient H 2 supply or on-site production Policies increasing costs for diesel trucks (e.g. stricter CO 2 -standards, emission-based registration taxes and road tolls) 11

12 Scenario results for EU28: Modal share for freight & passengers Passengers on local level Freight transport Modal shift from private cars to public transport, car sharing, biking and walking Shift to rail and ships, rebound effects back to road transport towards 2050 with the diffusion of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks 12

13 Scenario results for EU28: Energy demand in Mtoe Total energy demand is decreasing strongly in High-RES due to increased efficiency improvements and electrification 13

14 Scenario results for EU28: Energy demand by energy carrier Electricity demand in TWh Hydrogen demand in TWh Biofuel demand in Mtoe Train Light duty vehicles Trucks Buses Cars Light duty vehicles Trucks Buses Cars Biokerosene Biomethane Bioethanol Biodiesel Ten times higher in 2050 vs due to the diffusion of electric vehicles Demand strongly increasing from 2030 due to the diffusion of fuel cell trucks Growing demand, mainly because of increasing blend in kerosene 14

15 Strong and timely responses are required to meet the GHG emission reduction targets while transport demand is growing MEASURES TO BOOST THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM MEASURES TO SUPPORT THE ELECTRIFICATION OF ROAD TRANSPORT ALTERNATIVE FUELS TO COPE WITH LACK OF MATURE LOW- EMISSION TECHNOLOGIES Strict fuel efficiency and CO 2 standards for all new road vehicles, forcing the automotive industry to innovative vehicles with zero-/ low-emission drives Supporting modal shifts to more efficient modes, e.g. rail and public transport systems but also active modes and sharing mobility in urban areas Complementary measures aiming at increasing car occupancy rates (sharing mobility) and optimizing the city logistic chain in urban areas Subsidies, tax and pricing strategies to support the transition to new drive technologies by increasing their financial attractiveness in the first years of market entry Charging infrastructure incl. fast-charging capability to be deployed sufficiently and timely to reduce range anxieties Phase-out of pure internal combustion engines for cars, urban buses and vans Alternative fuels in form of biofuels or synthetic Power-to-X fuels based on electrolysis and additional treatments for modes for which mature lowemission drive technologies will not be developed in the near future (i.e. aviation and ships) 15