Alternative Powertrain and Challenges for Next Decade

Transcription

1 Alternative Powertrain and Challenges for Next Decade Prof. Dr. Willi Diez Director Institute for Automotive Research at the University of Applied Sciences Nuertingen (Germany) SIAM Annual Convention th September 2011, Hotel Taj Mahal Palace, New Delhi

2 Motor Vehicles in Mio. Global Car Parc is growing fast % Source: IEA 2010 Chart 2

3 Global Growth is driven by Emerging Markets - Anteile in vh RoW 2% 2010 RoW 2% Asien 20% Europa 35% Asien 37% Europa 29% Amerika 43% 2025 RoW 1% Amerika 32% Asien 55% Europa 18% Amerika 27% Triade Märkte Emerging Markets Source: Institute for Automotive Research Chart 3

4 Sustainable Growth in the Automotive Industry: Two Challenges Managing Climate Change Reduction of oil dependency Chart 4

5 Challenging political goals for reducing Carbon dioxide emissions and Fuel consumption 182 g CO 2 /km (~ 7,7 l/100 km) 144 g CO 2 /km (~ 5,4 l/100 km) 2015 EU regulation 2020 EU planning after 2020 Target value projections 130 g CO 2 /km (~ 5,2 l/100 km) 95 g CO 2 /km (~ 3,6 l/100 km) 60 g CO 2 /km (~ 2,4 l/100 km) Gasoline vehicles Diesel vehicles Chart 5

6 Road map to Sustainable Mobility on a global scale Bio Fuels 1st Gen. Bio Fuels 2nd Gen. Electric Drive Renewable Energy Fuel Cell Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) Diesel Otto Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Age of Oil Age of Renewables Chart 6

7 Powertrain Vehicle Powertrain Vehicle CO 2 emissions (g/km) Optimisation of Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) 200 7,7 l/100 km 160 5,4 l/100 km 120 4,7 80 3,8 3,2 2, Otto technology Diesel technology Source: Robert Bosch GmbH Chart 7

8 Advanced Electrification of the Powertrain Plug-in-Hybrid Plug-in-Hybrid mit Range Extender Battery-driven electric vehicle (BEV) Fuel cell vehicle (FCV) Internal combustion engine Electric range: 20 km Charging battery possible ( plug-in ) Electric engine with internal combustion engine as generator Limited electric range Range with REEV: km Electric engine only Range: km Charging times: 8 hours / 2-3 hours Fuel cell on hydrogen basis Electric drive Range: 500 km Chart 8

9 Evaluation of alternative Powertrains: The Customer`s voice Convenience Efficiency Affordability Chart 9

10 Strength & weaknesses of electrified Powertrains Convenience Efficiency Affordability*) Plug in Hybrid (PHEV) like ICE <80g/km Comparable to Full Hybrid Plug in Hybrid with RE (PHEV-REEV) like ICE <50g/km, zero emission possible >20-30 per cent Battery Electric (BEV) Fuel Cell (FCV) Limited range; long charging times like ICE, but lack of infrastructure Local zero emission >50+ per cent Local zero emission >50+ per cent *) on TCO basis Chart 10

11 Gravimetric Energy Density (Wh/kg) Energy desitny of Batteries vs. Petroleum Gasoline H Bar Diesel Li-Ion NiMH Lead-Acid Volumetric Energy Density (Wh/l) Quelle: General Motors 2010 Chart 11

12 Cost comparison: BEV vs. ICE TCO-Comparison monthly costs Citroën C-Zero Citroën C1 List price Fuel price 0,21 / kwh 1,22 / l 3 years / km p.a. Residual Value 40% % 37 % Depreciation Insurance Taxes - 1 Fuel Cost Cost per km 0,86 0,41 Source: EurotaxSchwacke 2011 Chart 12

13 Cost, Storage capacity Progress in Storage capacity and costs of Battery Technology 400 /kwh 180 Wh/kg 100 Wh/kg 200 /kwh Chart 13

14 Diffusion of new technologies: A forecast ICE HEV PHEV BEV/FCV ICE : Internal Combustion Engine HEV : Full-Hybrid PHEV : Plug-In-Hybrid (with Range Extender) BEV : Battery Electric Vehicle FCV : Fuell Cell Quelle: Institut für Automobilwirtschaft (IFA) Chart 14

15 Re-Inventing the Automobile: Changing value chain in the age of electrification Pistons Fuel injection systems Tanks 60% 25% Radiators Ignition systems Oil filters Interior concepts 75% 40% Cylinder heads Motor gaskets Gear units Safety systems Exhaust systems ICE BEV Share of electonic components at total value of car Share of other components at total value of car Chart 15

16 Battery technology is the key for succesful electrification Full Hybrid Plug-in-Hybrid Plug-in-Hybrid with Range Extender Battery-driven electric vehicle (BEV) Chart 16

17 Summary: Automotive industry in transition Automotive industry faces two main challenges to ensure sustainable growth in the Future: Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and Reduction of oil dependency To match this challenges the industry must follow multiple technology pathways Optimisation of ICE plus electrification of powertrain (plus alternative fuels) Transition to a elecetrified powertrains will completely change the value chain in the automotive industry New players have a huge chance to enter global automotive markets Chart 17