Energy Economics Group

Transcription

1 Energy Economics Group Vienna University of Technology

2 Electric Vehicle related Projects ELEK TRA Project ( ): Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbh AVL ListGmbH Hybrid & Electric Vehicles Technological Assessment Ecological Assessment Economic Assessment Model Based Scenarios of market & fleet penetration Vehicle to Grid Strategies ( ) AIT ICT Vienna University of Technology Interaction of EV an Grid Grid Requirements Load Profiles Charging Infrastructure Business Models Salzburg AG Vehicle to Grid Interfaces ( ) ICT Vienna University of Technology CURE Interfaces for EV use Slb Salzburg AG

3 MARKET AND FLEET PENETRATION OF HYBRID AND ELECTRIC CARS IN AUSTRIA MODEL BASED ANALYSIS Maximilian Kloess Energy Economics Group Vienna University of Technology

4 Batteries control unit Motor/ Generator Transmission Control Unit Battery 12V Battery 12V Battery 12V Battery 12V Battery 12V Background Background: ELEK TRA Project 2008/2009: Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbh AVL ListGmbH Hybrid & Electric Vehicles Technological Assessment Ecological Assessment Economic Assessment Model Based Scenarios of market & fleet penetration Electric vehicle Plug In Hybrids Series dirve Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrids Full Hybrids Plug In Hybrids Conventional Drive ICE CE IC Inverter Control Unit ICE Motor Generator Control Battery 200V INV Unit Tank mission Motor Transm ICE ICE INV Motor Tank otor Mo Generator Control Unit Inverte Battery 120V er Tank Transmission Motor Inverter ICE Motor Inverter Inverter Batteries 200V Tank clutch ssion Transmis Batteries 200V Tank DC/DC DC/DC Tank on Transmissi y DC/DC

5 Methodology Combination of bottom up and top down modelling approaches Bottom up vehicle technology model Bottom up fleet model dl Top down modeling of transport demand and service level Dynamic cost comparison of propulsion systems and fuels Logit model dlapproach for consumer decision i modelling ( market ktshares of technologies) Input parameters Fuel prices Income level Costs of technologies (components vehicles) Political i lframework conditions i Scenarios Market and fleet penetration of vehicle technologies mean vehicle characteristics (mass, power, efficiency) Energy Consumptions (well to wheel) Greenhouse gas emissions (well to wheel)

6 Scheme of the model Vehicle Technology Model Bottom Up Fleet Model global le earning cost of component 1 cost of component n Net costs of vehicles: 3 vehicle classes 8 propulsion systems Greenhouse Gas Emissions Specific Service Costs & Determination of Market Shares Investment costs /km: Acquisition costs Vehicle life time Interest rate Kilomtres driven per year Biofuel Blending Energy Consumption & Fuel Mix Political Framework conditions: Tax on onwnership Tax on acquisition Fuel tax Subsidies service cost /km Market Shares (logit model) Annual vehicle registration By vehicle class Overall vehicle stock By propulsion system Fuel costs /km: Vehicle efficiency Net Fuel price taxation Technology Improvement: Efficiency of vehicles Technological learning effects (fuels) Exogenous Parameters: Income Fossil Fuel Price (Scenarios) Diffusion Barriers: Infrastructure Availability Top Down Demand Model D d Transport Demand & Service Level: Vehicle registrations Vehicle use (kilometrage) Vehicle characteristics Statistic Parameters: Fuels Technologies Age structure Distribution of classes Driving distances Transport demand figures

7 Scenario Settings Scenario framework conditions: Fossil fuel price development (scenarios) 014 0,14 0,12 0,10 /kw Wh 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 Gasoline/Diesel CNG Electricity 0,00

8 Scenario Settings Scenario framework conditions: Fossil fuel price development (scenarios) Political framework conditions (taxes, subsidies etc) Fuel Taxes: gasoline: 0,45 diesel: 0,35 Tax on acquisition: 0 16% Tax on ownership: Policy Scenarios

9 Scenario Settings Scenario framework conditions: Fossil fuel price development (scenarios) Political framework conditions (taxes, subsidies etc) Technological Learning of alternative powertrain technologies (key components) Fuel supply scenarios: Biofuel blending Sources of Electricity

10 Scenario Settings Assumptions for presented results: Policy Business as usual (BAU) Policy Active + low fuel price scenario Tax On Ownership Engine Power Businenss as Usual Policy Active Policy Vehicle Taxes Fuel Taxe es Tax on Acquisition Status 2010 CO2 threshold 140g/km CO2 threshold 120g/km CO2 threshold 100g/km Fuel Tax Status 2010 Scheme 1 Scheme 2 Scheme 3 Scheme 4 Status 2010 Scheme 1 Scheme 2 Scheme 3 Scheme 4 Gasoline kwh Diesel kwh CNG kwh Electricity kwh

11 Results Business as usual (BAU) Fleet development: vehicle es Conventional Drive Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrid Hbid Full Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Series Hybrid EV Final energy consumption: TWh Gasoline Diesel CNG Electricity LR = 17,5% LR = 12,5%

12 Results Business as usual (BAU) WTW Energy Consumption: renewable TW Wh fossil LR = 12,5% LR = 17,5% 0 WTW Greenhouse Gas Emissions: t CO2 equivalent WTT Fuel Production TTW Fuel Burning TTW Vehicle Production LR = 12,5% LR = 17,5%

13 Results Policy Active Fleet development: 2050: 70% Electric or Plug In Hybrid Cars veh hicles Conventional Drive Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Series Hybrid EV Final energy consumption: 2050: 50% electricity in the energy supply TWh Gasoline Diesel CNG Electricity LR = 17,5% LR = 12,5%

14 Results Characteristics of new cars in the two scenarios: Average mass: kg BAU Scenario Policy Scenario Greenhouse gas emissions: BAU Scenario Policy Scenario Average power: g km kw BAU Scenario Policy Scenario 50

15 Results Policy Active WTW Energy Consumption: renewable 40 fossil : 50% fossil energy demand with with 100% renewable electricity TW Wh LR = 12,5% LR = 17,5% renewable 100% RES 0 WTW Greenhouse Gas Emissions: : 2050: 50% with fossil electricity (nat. gas) 65% with 100% renewable electricity 1000t CO O2 equivalent WTT Fuel Production TTW Fuel Burning TTW Vehicle Production LR = 12,5% LR = 17,5% 100% RES electricitiy 0

16 Results Business as usual (BAU) Fleet development: veh hicles Conventional Drive Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Series Hybrid EV Active Policy Scenario Fleet development: icles vehi Conventional Drive Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Series Hybrid EV

17 Thank you for your attention! Maximilian KLOESS (Msc) Energy Economics Group Vienna University of Technology Gusshausstraße 25 29, 1040 Wien, +43 (1)