Global EV Outlook 2017 Two million electric vehicles, and counting

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1 Global EV Outlook 217 Two million electric vehicles, and counting Pierpaolo Cazzola IEA Launch of Chile s electro-mobility strategy Santiago, 13 December 217

2 Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) Government-to-government forum comprising 13 countries Currently co-chaired by Canada and China, and coordinated by the IEA Released several analytical publications (Global EV Outlook, City casebook) Engaged stakeholders in high-level roundtables (CEM8 and Pilot City Forum in Beijing, June 217) Instrumental to mobilize action and commitments (Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change at COP21, Government Fleet Declaration at COP22) Just launched the Campaign (aim for a 3% market share for EVs by )

3 Global EV Outlook 217 Annual EVI report drafted at IEA Data reporting (EV stock, sales, EVSE, battery costs) Policy analysis and TCO assessment CO 2 impact and role of EVs in low carbon scenarios ( timeframe) Insights on grid integration (next reports: Nordic EV Outlook, Global EV Outlook 218)

4 Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical Global electric car fleet Number of vehicles on the road (Thousands) Others Germany France United Kingdom Netherlands Norway Japan USA China The global electric car fleet reached 2 million units in circulation last year, but sales growth went from 7% in to 4% in 216, suggesting an increasing risk of falling off track

5 New electric car registrations reach 75 units in 216 Electric car sales, market share, and BEV and PHEV sales shares in selected countries, BEV sales (%) 35 35% 216 PHEV sales (%) New electric car registrations (thousands) China United States Norway United Kingdom France Japan Germany Netherlands Sweden Others 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Market share (216) market share 95% of global electric car sales in 216 took place in 1 countries, and 6 countries had a market share above 1%: Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, France, United Kingdom, China

6 Electric car sales are correlated to changes in EV policies BEV and PHEV changes in incentives in a selection of countries, 216 vs. 216 policy vs. 216 sales Country developments growth 216 sales BEV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV PHEV China ~ 75% 3% United States ~ 22% 7% Norway ~ 6% 164% United Kingdom ~ 4% 42% France ~ 26% 36% Japan ~ 48% -34% Germany ~ -6% 2% Netherlands ~ 47% -5% Sweden ~ % 86% Canada ~ 19% 147% Denmark -71% -49% South Korea ~ 75% -4% Changes in electric car incentives, especially for vehicle purchase, can have an immediate and sizeable impact on electric car sales and steer the market towards either BEV or PHEV preference.

7 EVSE deployment rates were higher than e-car adoption rates in 216 Global charging outlets, Charging outlets (thousands) Slow chargers: AC level 1 and 2 (<22kW) Fast chargers: AC 43kW, DC, CHAdeMO, Tesla Superchargers, inductive chargers 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Year-on-year growth rate Private chargers Publicly available fast chargers Publicly available slow chargers Growth rate of publicly available fast chargers Growth rate of publicly accessible slow chargers % Growth rate of private chargers Publicly accessible infrastructure is growing to support the emerging EV market, especially publicly accessible fast chargers. This shows encouraging signs in addressing the chicken-and-egg issue.

8 E-mobility is also gaining ground in non-car modes; China leads the way Electric 2-wheelers: > 2 million, mainly in China. In other countries: ~2 in India, ~3 in the Netherlands, ~1 in the UK Low-Speed Electric Vehicles: ~4 million in China Electric buses: 35 in China. In Europe: deployment stage and ambitious procurement plans

9 Battery costs and range as key factors for the success of e-mobility Evolution of battery energy density and cost, 29-16, and future prospects 1 5 Conventional lithium ion 9 45 Advanced lithium ion Beyond lithium ion 8 4 Battery cost (USD/kWh) Battery energy density (Wh/L) US DOE battery cost (BEV) US DOE battery cost (PHEV) Cost claimed by GM and Tesla (BEV) GM battery cost target (BEV) Tesla battery cost target (BEV) US DOE battery cost target (PHEV) 2 1 US DOE energy density (PHEV) 1 5 US DOE energy density (BEV) Potential US DOE energy density target (PHEV) Battery costs and energy density progresses are expected to keep delivering positive outcomes. This will further help lowering adoption barriers.

10 Cost-competitiveness prospects and policy needs Comparative cost of passenger car technologies by country/region in the 2DS, and Powertrain and fuel costs over 3.5 years of use (USD) ICE PHEV BEV ICE PHEV BEV ICE PHEV BEV ICE PHEV BEV Engine Engine improvements Battery Electric motor Home charger Fuel Fuel Tripling mileage case United States China Japan Europe Achieving cost-competitiveness over the next decade will require policy instruments to allow market scale-up, reflect the cost of externalities of ICEs, and encourage synergies with new mobility models.

11 EV support policies CO 2 -based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates Feebates VAT exemptions Purchase incentives Circulation incentives Differentiated plates Access to bus lanes Free/dedicated parking Circulation/congestion charge exemption Fuel economy standards Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates Fuel taxes Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives Standards, regulations and mandates Charging infrastructure roll-out Direct public investment Public-private partnerships Charger standards harmonization Fast and slow charging network planning Large scope for city-level action Close monitoring of the effect of EV support policies are paramount to avoid adverse effects

12 EVs benefit the environment and are essential to CO 2 emissions reduction On-road WTW CO 2 emissions for various technologies by country/region, RTS and 2DS, to 3 ICE gasoline 25 ICE gasoline hybrid 2 ICE diesel gco2/km 15 PHEV - 2DS improvement 1 5 RTS 2DS FRANCE UNITED STATES CHINA JAPAN EUROPE PHEV - RTS improvement BEV - 2DS improvement BEV - RTS improvement If coupled to low-carbon power, the high energy efficiency of EVs offers prospects for substantial CO 2 emissions reductions. This complements their air quality, energy security and noise reduction benefits.

13 Grid integration and synergies with variable renewables Local demand profile and EV charging in the EU on a typical day, B2DS, 5 Solar PV and controlled EV charging 4 GW 3 2 EV charging coincident with renewables EV charging reducing generation ramping Hours Demand load PV generation Electric car charging Net load with PV and electric car charging Flexible charging will ensure minimal investment needs in grid reinforcements and optimized load synchronization with high shares of variable renewables.

14 Impacts on the grid? (slow vs. fast charging) Slow charging: Potential for flexibility through variable charging: requires price signal, demand-side management tools, but not necessarily vehicle-to-grid operations. Synergies with the integration of variable renewables Fast charging: Potentially disruptive locally for distribution grids Does not offer flexibility Business model? However, fast charging is not likely to take place in the evening demand peak (home chargers are slow chargers) The availability of slow and fast chargers must make EV charging easy and convenient to customers, but this deployment must be made in the most cost-effective way possible.

15 Prospect for EV uptake in different scenarios Global electric car fleet Electric cars in the vehicle stock (millions) Consistent with the ambition of the EV3@3 campaign IEA B2DS IEA 2DS Paris Declaration IEA RTS Historical Cumulative country targets (as of 216) Cumulative OEMs announcements (estimate) EVs will be needed to meet sustainability goals, as suggested by the EV3@3 campaign target. Early action, active government support and industry commitment are essential.

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