APERC Transport Modelling: BAU

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1 APERC Transport Modelling: BAU 44 Meeting of the APEC Expert Group on Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EGEE&C) Martin Brown-Santirso October 2014

2 Outline Brief on APERC s transport model Results of BAU case Total transport energy demand by transport mode by fuel type Road energy demand by vehicle type Vehicle stock by technology 2

3 Transport Energy Demand in APEC Region APEC Final Energy Demand by Sector in 2010 (5 th Ed. APEC Energy Outlook) APEC Transport Final Energy Demand in 2011 (IEA Energy Data 2013) 24% 10% 4% 4,931 Mtoe 32% 30% Industry Other Non-Energy Domestic Transport International Transport 14% 13% 1,448 Mtoe 73% Domestic Road Transport Domestic Non-Road Transport International Transport 3

4 Transport Sector Modelling Techniques Transport sub-sector Sub-mode/ vehicle class Model Energy Demand in 2011 (Mtoe) Percent Domestic Road Transport - Light and Heavy vehicles - Motorcycles Bottom-up (Fleet Model) 1,053 73% Domestic Non-Road Transport - Rail - Pipeline - Water - Air - Non-specific Top-down (Econometric Model) % 4% 2% 6% 0.4% International Non-Road Transport - Maritime - Aviation Top-down (Econometric Model) % 5% 4

APERC s Vehicle Fleet Model (1980-2011) (2011-2040) Macroeconomic data GDP & Population Urbanisation Crude oil

distance Energy data Retail fuel prices Blend ratio of biofuel IEA road energy use Input (Microsoft Excel) Vehicle

urban density) Vehicle stock turnover model -> vehicle sales and vehicle retirement (vehicle population by type and

prices, driving range, refueling infrastructure, etc.

5 APERC s Vehicle Fleet Model ( ) ( ) Macroeconomic data GDP & Population Urbanisation Crude oil price Vehicle data Vehicle population Vehicle age distribution Vehicle sales Vehicle fuel economy Vehicle travel distance Energy data Retail fuel prices Blend ratio of biofuel IEA road energy use Input (Microsoft Excel) Vehicle ownership model -> vehicle stock (GDP per capita, vehicle saturation, total vehicle population, income elasticity, urban density) Vehicle stock turnover model -> vehicle sales and vehicle retirement (vehicle population by type and vehicle distribution by age) Vehicle consumer choice model -> share of vehicle technologies (fuel cost, purchase prices, driving range, refueling infrastructure, etc..) Vehicle travel model -> travel distance (fuel cost, income, vehicle ownership, efficiency improvement, urban density) Main Model (STELLA System Dynamic Software) Output (Microsoft Excel) 5

6 oil price (USD per bbl) real GDP (millions USD 2005 PPP) population (millions) Key Assumptions: GDP, Population, Oil price Thailand s GDP and Population 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 - Real GDP in USD 2005 PPP Pop = 0.17% CAGR GDP = 3.91% CAGR projection Population Crude oil price projection (WEO, IEA 2013) CAGR = 0.97% projection 6

7 Vehicle Ownership Model Gompertz Function V t e e GDPt V t Vehicle population saturation of shapecoefficient ratecoefficient GDP t GDP(real) vehicle ownership PPP *Source - Dargay J, Gately D and Sommer M (2007) Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide:

8 Historical vehicle ownership curves of APEC economies ( ) (Source: APERC, 2014) 8

9 Vehicle ownership (unit / 1,000 people) Vehicle Ownership Curves Thailand case Total vehicle ownership (excld motorcycle) Light vehicle ownership Heavy vehicle ownership Vehicle ownership by Gompertz function Estimated total vehicle ownership up to 2040 Ownership 2040 = 492 (95%) Saturation = y = x R² = Ownership 2011 = 173 (33%) 0 1,000 10, ,000 Real GDP per capita in USD 200 PPP (Source: APERC, 2014) 9

10 Survival rate Vehicle Stock Model Vehicle Sales t = Expected Stock t (Vehicle Stock t-1 Vehicle Retirement ) 100% Surviving Stock 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Light vehicle survival rate data Light vehicle survival probability by Weibull fnc Light vehicle survival curve (input) Vehicle Age Vehicle survival curve 10

11 Vehicle Consumer Choice Model Market Share (S) = Type of Vehicle Technology Powertrain Technology Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) e (β FCU FC +β PP U PP +β DR U DR +β CMDD U CMDD +β PLDD U PLDD ) e (β FCU FC +β PP U PP +β DR U DR +β CMDD U CMDD +β PLDD U PLDD ) i Fuel Type Gasoline Diesel LPG CNG Gasoline/Diesel Gasoline/Diesel Electricity Electricity Hydrogen = vehicle choice coefficient U = utility coefficient Note: Fuel cost (FC) Purchase price (PP) Driving radius (DR) Convenient medium distance destinations (CMDD) Possible long distance destinations (PLDD) Logit vehicle choice coefficient ( ) Variable Coefficient Fuel cost Purchase price Driving radius CMDD PLDD

12 Results of BAU case - APEC Region -

13 Mtoe 11% 0% Total Transport Energy Demand by Mode % 0% 10% 4% 2% 1,450 Mtoe 3, ,500.0 CAGR = 1.79% 3% 2% 10% 2,430 Mtoe 73% 2, , , % Road Rail Pipeline Water Air Others 13

14 Mtoe Total Transport Energy Demand by Mode (excd. Inter) 3% 6% 0% 4% 3% ,264 Mtoe 3, ,500.0 CAGR = 1.71% 2% 7% 1% 3% 2% 2,069 Mtoe 84% 2, , , % Road Rail Pipeline Water Air Others 14

15 Mtoe 1% 5% 1% Total Transport Energy Demand by Fuel Type % 7% 2% 1% 34% 1,450 Mtoe 57% 3, ,500.0 CAGR = 1.79% 40% 2,430 Mtoe 47% 2% 2, , , % Gasoline Bioethanol Diesel Biodiesel LPG Natural Gas Electricity Hydrogen Others 15

16 Mtoe Road Transport Energy Demand by Vehicle Type % 6% 26% 1,060 Mtoe 69% 3, , ,000.0 CAGR = 1.78% 28% 1,760 Mtoe 66% 1, , Light Vehicle Heavy Vehicle Motorcycle 16

17 Million Vehicles Light Vehicle Stock by Technology % 1% 11% 9% 3% 570 Million 1,600 1,400 CAGR = 3.08% 18% 1,370 Million 50% 87% 1,200 1,000 4% 2% % ICE-Gasoline ICE-Diesel LPG CNG HEV PHEV BEV FCEV 17

18 Million Vehicles Heavy Vehicle Stock by Technology % 1% 8% 4% 2% 1% 7% 51 Million CAGR = 3.09% 122 Million % % ICE-Gasoline ICE-Diesel LPG CNG HEV PHEV BEV FCEV 18

19 Million Vehicles Motorcycle Stock by Technology % 0% 268 Million CAGR = 2.05% 482 Million 100% % ICE Motorcycle Electric Motorcycle 19

20 Vehicle Ownership by Economy 20

21 Vehicle Stock by Economy 21

22 Vehicle Sales by Economy 22

23 Road Transport Energy Demand by Economy 23

24 Thank you Questions & Comments 24

Road Transport Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions in APEC Economies through 2040

The 34 th edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW) June 03 05, 2015, Abu Dhabi Road Transport Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions in APEC Economies through 2040 Atit Tippichai Asia Pacific Energy