Aviation Industry Roadmap to Sustainability. Thomas Rötger IATA

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1 Aviation Industry Roadmap to Sustainability Thomas Rötger IATA

2 Air transport climate change contribution Our carbon footprint is small but growing From 2% today to 3% in 2050 (IPCC)

3 Aviation faces emissions challenge CO 2 emissions from the global fuel burn of commercial airlines Pre-recession ICAO forecast Post-recession IATA forecast Million tonnes CO Mt (2010F) Source: IATA

4 ..but our track record is strong Fuel efficiency, litres/100 TKP Fuel efficiency CO 2 Emissions at frozen 1990 technology 3.3 Billion tonnes of CO 2 saved Actual Emissions CO2 million tonnes

5 Our four pillar strategy Invest in new technology Fly more efficiently Build and use efficient infrastructure Use effective economic measures

6 Global industry targets % p/a fuel efficiency Working towards Carbon Neutral Growth CNG from 2020 Implementation of global sectoral approach 50% reduction in net CO2 emissions over 2005 levels

7 Global Industry Targets Agreed among all aviation stakeholders: ACI, CANSO, IATA, IBAC, ICCAIA Short and mid term goals reflected in Climate Change Resolution of 37 th ICAO Assembly 2010 Good first step, but States need to go further

8 Emissions reduction roadmap CO 2 emissions Business as usual emissions Aircraft technology (known), operations and infrastructure measures Biofuels and additional technology Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Gross emissions trajectory Economic measures Tech Ops Infra No action Biofuels + add. Tech CNG 2020 (schematic) -50% by

9 Technology Fuel saving potential Retrofits: Wingtips More efficient APU Engine retrofits Composite secondary structures 0% -10% -20% Baseline 2005 Retrofit Modifications Around 2020 Well beyond 2020 New aircraft types (around 2020): New engine architecture (geared turbofan / counterrotating fan / open rotor) Natural and hybrid laminar flow Serial modifications: Composite primary structures Engine upgrades Active load alleviation -30% -40% New aircraft types (well beyond 2020): Variable cycle Hybrid wing body Truss-braced wing Fuel cell -50% TERESA project (TEchnology Roadmap for Environmentally Sustainable Aviation) Partners: IATA, DLR, Georgia Tech around 25 35% improvement for new aircraft generation around 2020 in good agreement with ICAO independent expert study

10 Operations and Infrastructure Operations Improved maintenance techniques Flight and fuel planning accuracy Taxiing with one engine out Ground power instead of APU Infrastructure SESAR / Single European Sky RVSM, RNP, flex tracks, etc Limitations related to safety, capacity, noise, weather, etc Improvement potential in congested airspace (Europe) above worldwide average

11 Sustainable biofuels Potential to reduce aviation s carbon footprint by up to 80% Suitability proven by various test flights Technical certification: Biomass to Liquid (Fischer Tropsch) already certified for commercial use HRJ*: certification expected Summer 2011 Sustainability standards emerging Next steps: production scale up and commercialisation *Hydrogenated renewable jet fuel

12 Sustainability requirements Land use AVIATION BIOFUELS Water & air quality Food security Societal development Soil & biodiversity IATA member of Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels Upcoming regulations in EU and US global harmonisation desirable

13 Aviation biofuels Industry next steps Consolidate aviation business case Attract investors Demonstration plants Synergies with automotive biofuel production Scale up capacity

14 Governments must do their part Globally agreed sustainability standards Public incentives for aviation biofuel production and use Allow to compete on equal basis as land transport User friendly biofuel accounting methods Increased R&D funding De risking of pilot projects Public / Private Partnerships Transport & Energy policy

15 Thank you!