Marc Laughlin Associate Director, Methanol & Acetone for the Americas June 5, 2013
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1 Methanol Marc Laughlin Associate Director, Methanol & Acetone for the Americas June 5, 2013
2 Value Chain - Methanol Feedstocks Product Derivatives Products / End Uses Sectors Natural Gas Coal Methanol Formaldehyde Acetic Acid MMA MTBE DME Gasoline MTO/MTP Biodiesel UF/PF Resins Polyacetals MDI VAM Acetate Esters Acetic Anhydride PTA Gasoline Additive Olefins Fuels Construction Automotive Electronics Appliances Paints/ Coatings Insulation Pharma Packaging (PET Bottles) Solvents
3 World Methanol Supply & Demand Million Metric Tons 180 Operating Rate 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% % Demand Total Capacity Operating Rate
4 Global Methanol Nameplate vs. Effective Capacity Million Metric Tons Operating Rate 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Global Capacity Total Operating Rate Effective Global Capacity Effective Global Operating Rate
5 Global Capacity Expansion & Closures Million Metric Tons N. America S. America Europe Africa/Middle East Indian Subc. Northeast Asia Southeast Asia 5
6 Global Methanol Demand Growth 2012 Methanol Demand By End Use 2017 Methanol Demand By End Use MTO/MTP 8% Solvents 4% DMT/Others 6% Formaldehyde 29% Solvents 3% DMT/Others 4% Formaldehyde 20% Chloromethanes 3% Methylamines 3% Dimethyl Ether 13% MTO/MTP 38% Acetic Acid 10% Acetic Acid 6% MTBE/TAME 6% Methyl Methacrylate 1% Gasoline/Fuel 13% Methyl Methacrylate 2% Demand = 63 Million Metric Tons MTBE/TAME 9% Chloromethanes 1% Methylamines 2% Dimethyl Ether 8% Gasoline/Fuel 11% Demand = 120 Million Metric Tons 6
7 World Methanol Demand Forecast Million Metric Tons Operating Rate 100% DMT/Others Solvents MTO/MTP Chloromethanes Methylamines Dimethyl Ether Gasoline/Fuel Methyl Methacrylate MTBE/TAME Acetic Acid Formaldehyde Operating Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 7
8 Major Methanol Derivatives World Methanol Consumption Formaldehyde 30% DMT 0.9% Acetic Acid 9.9% MTBE/TAME 9.7% Typical Derivative End Uses UF/ PF: Adhesives for Wood products (fiberboard, plywood, particleboard. Polyacetyl resins:thermoplastic engineering resins in automotive and industry MDI: Flexible & rigid foams (polyurethanes) for appliances and automotive, construction BDO: elastomers and electronics PET for containers PETG for thick sheet- display cases, large signs Films & textile fiber Solvent for oxidation of paraxylene to PTA Films for packaging and adhesives caulks to textile adhesives LCD s; filter tow for cigarettes NAM Growth with gasoline is flat while capacity is expanding for increased exports of MTBE. Global gasoline demand growth is 2.0% in 2012 and 1.1% in 2013 MMA 1.9% Construction components- skylights & signs Automotive demand for acrylic sheets and coatings Gasoline/Fuel 13.6% Biodiesel driven by U.S. RFS-2 regulations DME 9.7% Diesel fuel substitute Methylamines 3.4% Pesticides & solvents Growth for Silicone intermediates for elastomers, fluids, and Chloromethanes 2.5% solvents Construction demand for Methylene chloride for paint removers MTO/MTP 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, 8.2% reused, or otherwise Ethylene distributed in and any form propylene without prior for written plastics consent. Solvents 4.7% Windshield washer fluid and oil drill anti-freezing fluid
9 World Methanol Demand By Region Million Metric Tons N. America S. America Europe CIS & Baltics Africa/Middle East Indian Subc. NE Asia SE Asia 9
10 Global Methanol Demand China vs. ROW Million Metric Tons China Demand AAGR : 23% ROW Demand AAGR : 0.45% China Demand AAGR : 22% ROW Demand AAGR : 3% Demand - ROW Demand - China 10
11 World Methanol Consumption Million Metric Tons Fuel Demand AAGR : 15% MTO/MTP Demand AAGR : 0% Other Demand AAGR : 3% Fuel Demand AAGR : 7% MTO/MTP Demand AAGR : 56% Other Demand AAGR : 5% Percent Fuel Use Demand - Other Demand - Fuel Demand - MTO/MTP Percent Fuel Use Merchant Methanol 11
12 Methanol & MTO/MTP Million Metric Tons Integrated Methanol Capacity MTO/MTP Merchant Methanol Demand 12
13 West Europe
14 West Europe Methanol Supply & Demand Million Metric Tons Operating Rate % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 0% Production Domestic Demand Total Capacity Operating Rate 14
15 West Europe Demand Forecast Million Metric Tons Operating Rate 100% Formaldehyde Acetic Acid MTBE/TAME Methyl Methacrylate Gasoline Fuel Dimethyl Ether Methylamines Chloromethanes Solvents DMT/Others Operating Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
16 Middle East
17 Middle East Methanol Supply & Demand Million Metric Tons Operating Rate % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0.0 0% Production Domestic Demand Total Capacity Operating Rate
18 Asia
19 Southeast Asia Methanol Supply & Demand Million Metric Tons 7.0 Operating Rate 100% % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Production Domestic Demand Total Capacity Operating Rate
20 Southeast Asia Methanol Demand Forecast Million Metric Tons 3.5 Operating Rate 100% Formaldehyde Acetic Acid MTBE/TAME Methyl Methacrylate Gasoline/Fuel Dimethyl Ether Solvents DMT/Others Operating Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
21 Northeast Asia Methanol Supply & Demand Million Metric Tons Operating Rate 100% % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Production Domestic Demand Total Capacity Operating Rate
22 Northeast Asia Methanol Demand Forecast Million Metric Tons Operating Rate 100% Formaldehyde Acetic Acid MTBE/TAME Methyl Methacrylate Gasoline/Fuel Dimethyl Ether Methylamines Chloromethanes MTO/MTP Solvents DMT/Others Operating Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
23 Americas
24 South America Methanol Supply & Demand Million Metric Tons 16.0 Operating Rate 100% % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Production Domestic Demand Total Capacity Operating Rate
25 South America Methanol Demand Forecast Million Metric Tons 3.0 Operating Rate 100% % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Formaldehyde MTBE/TAME Methyl Methacrylate Gasoline/Fuel Methylamines Solvents DMT/Others Operating Rate
26 North America Energy Price Trends Dollars Per MMBtu Gas as % of Crude, Btu Basis 20 60% % 14 40% % % 4 10% 2 0 0% Crude (WTI) Natural Gas Gas as % of Crude
27 North America Methanol Production By Feedstock Forecast Million Metric Tons Natural Gas Coal Feedstock Petcoke 27
28 North America Methanol Demand Forecast Million Metric Tons 10 Operating Rate 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Formaldehyde Acetic Acid MTBE/TAME Methyl Methacrylate Gasoline/Fuel Methylamines Solvents DMT/Others Operating Rate 0% 28
29 North America Methanol Net Trade Million Metric Tons Percentage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Imports Exports Net Imports as % of Total Supply 0%
30 Methanol Regional Net Trade Thousand Metric Tons NAM SAM NEA SEA ISC MDE AFR WEP CEP CIS US China Net Exports - Thousand Metric Tons 2012 (5397) 6264 (8832) 1254 (1006) (4299) (874) 1128 (5206) (4375) 2015 (3517) 7692 (15684) 2129 (1093) (4620) (954) 1461 (3250) (10771) 2017 (1407) 8127 (18430) 2445 (1141) (5000) (1052) 1934 (1100) (13312)
31 Price
32 2013 Methanol Industry Production Cash Cost Dollars Per Metric Ton Global Methanol Demand = 67.3 MMT China NG South America, CIS & Baltic Advantaged Gas (China Coking, Saudi Arabia, Iran) West Europe China NG & Coal Cumulative Production Capacity, Million Metric Tons 32
33 Methanol Global Price Determination Mechanism - Middle East Netback to the West North America ME price to North America = China price + Freight differential + Duties South America South American producers price to N. America at a price to discourage ME imports to N. America West Europe ME Price to Europe = China price + Freight differential + duties + handling W. European producers marginal cost may force upward adjustment Middle East Global price taker Balances exports to regions for highest netback (NB) NB ME China = China price less freight ME to China Incremental cost to deliver to WE vs. China Incremental Cost to deliver to NA vs. China China Global marginal cost production block Global price setter The global equilibrium price setting mechanism is driven by Middle East producers seeking the optimum netback value. Regional adjustments may occur due to transient regional Supply/Demand imbalances.
34 Methanol Annual Regional Price Comparison Dollars Per Metric Ton U.S. Contract Net Trans. U.S. Spot WEP Contract T2 WEP Spot T1 WEP Spot T2 NEA Spot 34
35 Price Going Forward
36 2013 Methanol Industry Production Cash Cost Dollars Per Metric Ton Global Methanol Demand = 67.3 MMT China NG South America, CIS & Baltic Advantaged Gas (China Coking, Saudi Arabia, Iran) North America West Europe China NG & Coal Cumulative Production Capacity, Million Metric Tons 36
37 Methanol Global Price Determination Mechanism A Shift in the Flow? North America Potential market competition and import displacement leads to modestly lower prices West Europe Maintains ME Price to Europe = China price + Freight differential + duties + handling W. European producers marginal cost may force upward adjustment Middle East China Global marginal cost production block Global price setter South America Global price taker Balances exports to regions for highest netback (NB) Traditionally swing supplier, however.. Lower flexibility going forward NB ME China = China price less freight ME to China The global equilibrium price setting mechanism is driven by Middle East producers seeking the optimum netback value. Regional adjustments may occur due to transient regional Supply/Demand imbalances.
38 Methanol Annual Regional Price Comparison Dollars Per Metric Ton U.S. Contract Net Trans. U.S. Spot WEP Contract T2 WEP Spot T1 WEP Spot T2 NEA Spot 38
39 Equivalent Price of Energy Products Valued as Methanol Dollars Per Metric Ton Methanol Industry Spot Methanol Price Methanol Gasoline No. 2 Oil Propane Crude Oil
40 Developments
41 Developments Will methanol capacity additions spur derivative demand growth? Acetic acid or its derivatives Fuels Biodiesel Direct blending Maritime MTO
42 Five Key Points for the Methanol Industry Traditional methanol derivative demand tracks GDP on average 1.7x Conventional derivatives drive base demand Fuels have potential for step-out growth Energy differentials drive fuels applications Non integrated MTO/MTP units bring potential balance shocks Economic volatility creates price volatility through end-use demand patterns, inventory management, and credit availability Process technology advancing with feedstocks diversity, increased scale, yield improvement, and integration options Feed stock dynamics affect supply location End-use options for feedstocks Sustainability criteria for option selection
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