May 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook

Transcription

1 May 2018 for Williston Basin Petroleum Conference Bismarck, N.D. by Dr. Linda Capuano Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average about $71/b in 2018 and $66/b in 2019, with WTI prices $5/b lower in both years Crude oil spot price dollars per barrel forecast Annual Energy Outlook ($100/b) Brent crude oil WTI crude oil 0 price difference Source: EIA, May 2018, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018, and Thomson Reuters

3 Various events could lead to physical changes to global supply or demand that could push future crude oil prices higher or lower than in the current STEO forecast Potential Events Reduction in Iranian oil production because of renewed sanctions Increase Prices Venezuela s oil production declines faster than expected U.S. crude oil production rises more slowly than expected Major geopolitical or weather related unanticipated supply disruption U.S. crude oil production continues to increase faster than expected Decrease Prices Weaker than expected economic and oil demand growth OPEC increases production in 2019 following expiration of the supply reduction agreement Removal of price subsidies creates greater price sensitivity, reducing demand 3

4 EIA has four main reports estimating domestic crude oil production Petroleum Supply Monthly Survey Data (PSM) Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) (STEO) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) 4

5 Main sources of monthly oil and natural gas data are the EIA-914 survey and state administrative data EIA-914 survey requires roughly 375 operators, representing a minimum of 85% of production, to report state-level oil and natural gas production Data is report individually for 15 states (AR, CA, CO, KS, LA, MT, NM, ND, OH, OK, PA, TX, UT, WV, WY), the Federal GOM, and an other states group excluding AK Responses due 40 days after the close of the production month. Published monthly 60 days after the close of the production month. EIA forecasts are benchmarked to this data State agencies also collect and release state-level data, plus well or lease level production data Available 45 days to 2 years (or more) after close of the production month EIA uses this data for analysis of decline rates and sub-state production rates (e.g., how Eagle Ford differs from Permian within Texas) 5

6 Forecasts improved with expanded EIA-914 survey in 2015 because revisions to historical data dropped to generally less than half a percent % difference between PSM with first EIA-914 data and most recent data in the PSM 4% 2% Expanded EIA-914 survey began January % -2% -4% -6% Expanded data became available August 2015 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). EIA-914 FAQs 6

7 Monthly average FracFocus well completion filings have substantially greater variation than production data U.S. reported completions and recompletions filings Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 U.S. Weekly Reported Fracs 5wk Average Percent change month over month 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 m/m change Source: FracFocus weekly reported completion and recompletion filings 7

8 Sample timeline of PSM and STEO oil and natural gas production data reporting and releases January February March April January 1-31 Oil and natural gas is produced March 12 Operator reports are due for January production EIA-914 survey 40 days after the last day of the production month March 30 EIA releases January production in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) Last day of the month April 11 EIA monthly forecast with January data is released in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) First Tuesday after the first Thursday of the month March PSM (data through Jan) February and March estimates 8

9 Global oil markets are expected to be relatively balanced in 2018, with some inventory growth expected in 2019, putting modest downward pressure on oil prices Global liquid fuels market balance million barrels per day forecast world production world consumption Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2 1 implied stock build 0-1 implied stock draw -2 Source: EIA, May

10 Global oil supply growth is forecast to increase in compared with , the United States and Canada are key drivers of the increase Annual change in total liquid fuels production million barrels per day OPEC Countries North America Eurasia Latin America Other Non-OPEC World Source: EIA, May

11 Crude oil and hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) production growth particularly of ethane and propane support total U.S. liquids production growth in U.S. total liquid fuels production million barrels per day Components of annual change million barrels per day total production Source: EIA, May fuel ethanol & biodiesel HGL (ethane, propane, butane, pentanes) crude oil (net change)

12 Strong HGL consumption growth contributes to an expected increase in U.S. liquid fuels consumption growth in 2018 U.S. total liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day total consumption Components of annual change million barrels per day Source: EIA, May distillate fuel HGL (ethane, propane, butane, pentanes) gasoline other (net change)

13 With strong expected growth in crude oil production and high levels of refinery runs, EIA forecasts that net imports of petroleum will continue to decline U.S. total crude oil and petroleum product trade million barrels per day gross imports gross exports Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Source: EIA, May 2018 and EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly. forecast net imports 13

14 Henry Hub prices are forecast to average $3.01/MMBtu in 2018 and $3.11/MMBtu in 2019 Henry Hub natural gas price dollars per million British thermal units historical Henry Hub spot price STEO forecast Source: EIA, May 2018, and Thomson Reuters. 14

15 EIA forecasts marketed natural gas production to grow by a record 7.4 Bcf/d on average in 2018 U.S. marketed natural gas production billion cubic feet per day total production Source: EIA, May Components of annual change billion cubic feet per day Haynesville Permian Appalachia other (net change)

16 The regular-grade gasoline retail price forecast averages $2.90 per gallon in summer 2018 compared with $2.41 per gallon last summer Regular-grade gasoline retail price dollars per gallon Avg. $ Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Source:, May Brent crude oil price (summer avg) Wholesale gasoline - crude oil price difference (summer avg) Retail - wholesale gasoline price difference (summer avg) Monthly retail price 2016 Avg. $ Avg. $ Forecast Avg. $

17 Household transportation expenditures in 2018 are projected to be higher than last year but similar to the average expenditures over the past decade Average annual household expenditures on gasoline and motor oil dollars $3,000 $2,500 forecast $2,000 $1,500 All consumer units $1,000 $500 $ Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey; EIA, May

18 For more information Petroleum Supply Monthly EIA-914 survey expansion and Weekly Petroleum Status Report Drilling Productivity Report Webinar STEO 11/16/ Webinar WPSR 1/29/ or 18