UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) Oil and Gas Production and the UK Economy. Mike Earp
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1 UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) Oil and Gas Production and the UK Economy Mike Earp 15 June 215
2 Outline Production and Reserves Expenditure, Income and Taxation Gross Value Added Trade Recent Production History Production (and Demand) Projections
3 Outline Production and Reserves Expenditure, Income and Taxation Gross Value Added Trade Recent Production History Production (and Demand) Projections
4 Major Oil and Gas Producing Countries 214 US Russian Federation Saudi Arabia Canada China Iran Qatar United Arab Emirates Mexico Norway Kuwait Venezuela Iraq Nigeria Algeria Brazil Indonesia Kazakhstan Malaysia Angola Egypt Turkmenistan United Kingdom Oman Oil Gas The UK was ranked 23rd overall, 24th in oil and 21st in gas Production in million tonnes (of oil equivalent)
5 million barrels of oil equivalent/day UK Oil and Net Gas Production Oil & NGLs Natural Gas Total Hydrocarbon Production
6 billion boe UK Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Reserves and Production Cumulative production to end of year Possible Reserves at end of year Remaining Proven plus Probable Reserves at end of year Production in year
7 New Offshore Field Approvals by year
8 New Offshore Field Approvals by year 25 2 Gas Fields Condensate Fields Oil Fields
9 Number of Offshore UK Oil & Gas Field Start-Ups by Year
10 Thousand tonnes 13, UK Crude Oil Production by start-up year of field 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,
11 Number of UK Onshore and Offshore Oil Fields in Production Ceased Production Start-ups Number of fields in production
12
13 million tonnes UK Continental Shelf Oil Reserves and Production 4,5 4,25 4, 3,75 3,5 3,25 3, 2,75 2,5 2,25 2, 1,75 1,5 4,5 4,25 4, 3,75 3,5 3,25 3, 2,75 2,5 2,25 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 1, Cumulative production to end of year Possible Reserves at end of year Remaining Proven plus Probable Reserves at end of year Production in year 1,25 1,
14 million tonnes 55 Evolution of Estimated Ultimately Recoverable UK Oil Reserves Proven Reserves Probable Reserves Central estimate of Potential Additional Resources Central estimate of Undiscovered Resources Cumulative Production Production
15 million tonnes 55 UK Oil Resources and Production Cumulative Production Dummy Estimate of ultimately recoverable resources Actual/Projected Production
16 bcm UK Continental Shelf Gas Reserves and Production 3,25 3,25 3, 3, 2,75 2,75 2,5 2,5 2,25 2,25 2, 2, 1,75 1,75 1,5 1,5 1,25 1,25 1, 1, Cumulative production to end of year Possible Reserves at end of year Remaining Proven plus Probable Reserves at end of year Net Production in year
17 bcm Evolution of Estimated Ultimately Recoverable UK Gas Reserves Proven Reserves Probable Reserves Central estimate of Potential Additional Resources Central estimate of Undiscovered Resources Cumulative Production Production
18 bcm UK Gas Resources and Production Cumulative Production Dummy Estimate of ultimately recoverable resources Actual/Projected Production
19 Outline Production and Reserves Expenditure, Income and Taxation Gross Value Added Trade Recent Production History Production (and Demand) Projections
20 billion (213 prices) UKCS Income and Expenditure Exploration & Appraisal Expenditure Development Capital Expenditure Operating Costs Decommissioning Costs Government Take on top of Post-Tax Income Post-Tax Income
21 Government revenues from UK oil and gas production ( billion, 213/14 prices) Licence Fees Royalty Supplementary Charge Ring Fence Corporation Tax Supplementary Petroleum Duty Petroleum Revenue Tax 213/14 212/13 211/12 21/11 29/1 28/9 27/8 26/7 25/6 24/5 23/4 22/3 21/2 2/1 1999/ 1998/ / / / / / / /92 199/ /9 1988/ / / / / / / /82 198/ /8 1978/ / /77
22 UKCS Offshore Drilling Activity : number of wells started each year including geological sidetracks Development (cumulative total: 6784; total all wells: 1178) Appraisal (cumulative total: 1835; total E&A: 4294) Exploration (cumulative total: 2459) Real Sterling oil price ( /bbl, 215 prices)
23 /bbl IHS CERA UCCI and UOCI vs Brent Oil Price (all nominal) Q1 2 Q3 21 Q1 21 Q3 22 Q1 22 Q3 23 Q1 23 Q3 24 Q1 24 Q3 25 Q1 25 Q3 26 Q1 26 Q3 27 Q1 27 Q3 28 Q1 28 Q3 29 Q1 29 Q3 21 Q1 21 Q3 211 Q1 211 Q3 212 Q1 212 Q3 213 Q1 213 Q3 214 Q1 214 Q Index Oil Price (Brent) Upstream Capital Cost Index ( ) Upstream Operating Cost Index ( )
24 Outline Production and Reserves Expenditure, Income and Taxation Gross Value Added Trade Recent Production History Production (and Demand) Projections
25 GVA ( million) 3, Upstream Oil and Gas Gross Value Added (GVA) 3.% 25, 2.5% 2, 2.% 15, 1.5% % of total GDP 1, 1.% 5,.5% %
26 Outline Production and Reserves Expenditure, Income and Taxation Gross Value Added Trade Recent Production History Production (and Demand) Projections
27 billion (213 prices) Value (Cost) of UK Oil & Gas Exports (Imports) Oil Natural Gas Oil & Gas
28 mtoe Net UK Exports (Imports) of Oil & Gas Oil Natural Gas Oil & Gas
29 million tonnes 55 Destination of UK crude oil production and sources of UK supply, Imports from other countries (26%) Exports to other countries (21.8%) Exports to France (9.3%) Exports to South Korea (11.5%) Exports to Germany (17.5%) Imports from Algeria (6.9%) Imports from Nigeria (1.7%) Imports from Russia (11.6%) Exports to The Netherlands (32.5%) Imports from Norway (39.2%) Domestic Use (7.5%) UKCS Production UKCS (5.6%) UK Refinery Crude Supply
30 Outline Production and Reserves Expenditure, Income and Taxation Gross Value Added Trade Recent Production History Production (and Demand) Projections
31 January 1998 May 1998 September 1998 January 1999 May 1999 September 1999 January 2 May 2 September 2 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 22 May 22 September 22 January 23 May 23 September 23 January 24 May 24 September 24 January 25 May 25 September 25 January 26 May 26 September 26 January 27 May 27 September 27 January 28 May 28 September 28 January 29 May 29 September 29 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 211 May 211 September 211 January 212 May 212 September 212 January 213 May 213 September 213 January 214 May 214 September 214 January 215 million tonnes p.a UK Oil (including NGL) Production
32 January 1998 May 1998 September 1998 January 1999 May 1999 September 1999 January 2 May 2 September 2 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 22 May 22 September 22 January 23 May 23 September 23 January 24 May 24 September 24 January 25 May 25 September 25 January 26 May 26 September 26 January 27 May 27 September 27 January 28 May 28 September 28 January 29 May 29 September 29 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 211 May 211 September 211 January 212 May 212 September 212 January 213 May 213 September 213 January 214 May 214 September 214 January 215 million tonnes p.a UK Oil (including NGL) Production
33 January 1998 May 1998 September 1998 January 1999 May 1999 September 1999 January 2 May 2 September 2 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 22 May 22 September 22 January 23 May 23 September 23 January 24 May 24 September 24 January 25 May 25 September 25 January 26 May 26 September 26 January 27 May 27 September 27 January 28 May 28 September 28 January 29 May 29 September 29 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 211 May 211 September 211 January 212 May 212 September 212 January 213 May 213 September 213 January 214 May 214 September 214 January 215 million tonnes pa UKCS Oil Production Current month (annual equivalent) 12 months to date % change (12 months to date vs previous year) 34% 32% 3% 28% 26% 24% 22% 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% -14% -16% -18% -2% -22% -24% -26%
34 January 1998 May 1998 September 1998 January 1999 May 1999 September 1999 January 2 May 2 September 2 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 22 May 22 September 22 January 23 May 23 September 23 January 24 May 24 September 24 January 25 May 25 September 25 January 26 May 26 September 26 January 27 May 27 September 27 January 28 May 28 September 28 January 29 May 29 September 29 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 211 May 211 September 211 January 212 May 212 September 212 January 213 May 213 September 213 January 214 May 214 September 214 January 215 bcm p.a UK Net Gas Production
35 January 1998 May 1998 September 1998 January 1999 May 1999 September 1999 January 2 May 2 September 2 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 22 May 22 September 22 January 23 May 23 September 23 January 24 May 24 September 24 January 25 May 25 September 25 January 26 May 26 September 26 January 27 May 27 September 27 January 28 May 28 September 28 January 29 May 29 September 29 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 211 May 211 September 211 January 212 May 212 September 212 January 213 May 213 September 213 January 214 May 214 September 214 January 215 bcm p.a UK Net Gas Production
36 January 1998 May 1998 September 1998 January 1999 May 1999 September 1999 January 2 May 2 September 2 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 22 May 22 September 22 January 23 May 23 September 23 January 24 May 24 September 24 January 25 May 25 September 25 January 26 May 26 September 26 January 27 May 27 September 27 January 28 May 28 September 28 January 29 May 29 September 29 January 21 May 21 September 21 January 211 May 211 September 211 January 212 May 212 September 212 January 213 May 213 September 213 January 214 May 214 September 214 January 215 bcm pa UKCS Net Gas Production Current month (annual equivalent) 12 months to date % change (12 months to date vs previous year) 34% 32% 3% 28% 26% 24% 22% 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% -14% -16% -18% -2% -22% -24% -26%
37 January 1996 July 1996 January 1997 July 1997 January 1998 July 1998 January 1999 July 1999 January 2 July 2 January 21 July 21 January 22 July 22 January 23 July 23 January 24 July 24 January 25 July 25 January 26 July 26 January 27 July 27 January 28 July 28 January 29 July 29 January 21 July 21 January 211 July 211 January 212 July 212 January 213 July 213 January 214 July 214 January 215 mcm/day 4 UK Monthly Gas Demand Net storage injections Net monthly exports via IUK 5 Exports to the Republic of Ireland (and Isle of Man) Implied UK consumption including downstream operators' own use and metering differences
38 December 1996 June 1997 December 1997 June 1998 December 1998 June 1999 December 1999 June 2 December 2 June 21 December 21 June 22 December 22 June 23 December 23 June 24 December 24 June 25 December 25 June 26 December 26 June 27 December 27 June 28 December 28 June 29 December 29 June 21 December 21 June 211 December 211 June 212 December 212 June 213 December 213 June 214 December 214 bcm 12 UK Gas Demand over previous 12 months Net storage injections Net monthly exports via IUK 2 Exports to the Republic of Ireland (and Isle of Man) 1 Implied UK consumption including downstream operators' own use and metering differences
39 December 1996 June 1997 December 1997 June 1998 December 1998 June 1999 December 1999 June 2 December 2 June 21 December 21 June 22 December 22 June 23 December 23 June 24 December 24 June 25 December 25 June 26 December 26 June 27 December 27 June 28 December 28 June 29 December 29 June 21 December 21 June 211 December 211 June 212 December 212 June 213 December 213 June 214 December 214 bcm 12 UK Gas Demand and Supply over previous 12 months Net storage injections Net monthly exports via IUK Exports to the Republic of Ireland (and Isle of Man) Implied UK consumption including downstream operators' own use and metering differences Net UK production excluding direct exports
40 January 1996 July 1996 January 1997 July 1997 January 1998 July 1998 January 1999 July 1999 January 2 July 2 January 21 July 21 January 22 July 22 January 23 July 23 January 24 July 24 January 25 July 25 January 26 July 26 January 27 July 27 January 28 July 28 January 29 July 29 January 21 July 21 January 211 July 211 January 212 July 212 January 213 July 213 January 214 July 214 January 215 mcm/day 4 UK Monthly Gas Supply Net storage withdrawals Total Imports Net UK production excluding direct exports
41 December 1996 June 1997 December 1997 June 1998 December 1998 June 1999 December 1999 June 2 December 2 June 21 December 21 June 22 December 22 June 23 December 23 June 24 December 24 June 25 December 25 June 26 December 26 June 27 December 27 June 28 December 28 June 29 December 29 June 21 December 21 June 211 December 211 June 212 December 212 June 213 December 213 June 214 December 214 bcm 12 UK Gas Supply over previous 12 months Net storage withdrawals Total Imports Net UK production excluding direct exports
42 January 1996 July 1996 January 1997 July 1997 January 1998 July 1998 January 1999 July 1999 January 2 July 2 January 21 July 21 January 22 July 22 January 23 July 23 January 24 July 24 January 25 July 25 January 26 July 26 January 27 July 27 January 28 July 28 January 29 July 29 January 21 July 21 January 211 July 211 January 212 July 212 January 213 July 213 January 214 July 214 January 215 mcm/day 4 UK Monthly Gas Supply Net storage withdrawals Imports of LNG 1 Imports via BBL Net monthly imports via IUK 5 Direct imports by pipeline from Norway Net UK production excluding direct exports
43 December 1996 June 1997 December 1997 June 1998 December 1998 June 1999 December 1999 June 2 December 2 June 21 December 21 June 22 December 22 June 23 December 23 June 24 December 24 June 25 December 25 June 26 December 26 June 27 December 27 June 28 December 28 June 29 December 29 June 21 December 21 June 211 December 211 June 212 December 212 June 213 December 213 June 214 December 214 bcm 12 UK Gas Supply over previous 12 months Net storage withdrawals Imports of LNG Imports via BBL Net monthly imports via IUK Direct imports by pipeline from Norway Net UK production excluding direct exports
44 December 1996 June 1997 December 1997 June 1998 December 1998 June 1999 December 1999 June 2 December 2 June 21 December 21 June 22 December 22 June 23 December 23 June 24 December 24 June 25 December 25 June 26 December 26 June 27 December 27 June 28 December 28 June 29 December 29 June 21 December 21 June 211 December 211 June 212 December 212 June 213 December 213 June 214 December 214 bcm UK Gas Demand and Supply over the previous 12 months Net Exports to the Continent via Bacton Zeebrugge Interconnector Exports to the Republic of Ireland and the Isle of Man UK Consumption Net UK production excluding direct exports Direct exports of UK production to The Netherlands and Norway (as negative) Producers' own use (as negative)
45 Jan 1996 Jul 1996 Jan 1997 Jul 1997 Jan 1998 Jul 1998 Jan 1999 Jul 1999 Jan 2 Jul 2 Jan 21 Jul 21 Jan 22 Jul 22 Jan 23 Jul 23 Jan 24 Jul 24 Jan 25 Jul 25 Jan 26 Jul 26 Jan 27 Jul 27 Jan 28 Jul 28 Jan 29 Jul 29 Jan 21 Jul 21 Jan 211 Jul 211 Jan 212 Jul 212 Jan 213 Jul 213 Jan 214 Jul 214 Jan 215 mcm/day UK Monthly Gas Supply and Demand Storage Injections Net Exports except to Ireland and direct to The Netherlands & Norway Storage Withdrawals Net Imports Indigenous Net Gas Supply UK & net Irish Demand
46 Outline Production and Reserves Expenditure, Income and Taxation Gross Value Added Trade Recent Production History Production (and Demand) Projections
47 Oil (million tonnes) Actual/Projected UKCS Oil and Gas Production Gas (billion therms) Actual Oil March 211 Oil Mar 214 Oil Mar 215 Oil Actual Gas March 211 Gas Mar 214 Gas Mar 215 Gas
48 Actual/Projected UK Oil and Gas Production and Demand (million tonnes of oil equivalent) Oil Production Oil Demand Gas Production Gas Demand Net Oil and Gas Exports/(Imports)
49 billion barrels (resources) UK Oil Resources and Production million barrels/day (production) Cumulative Production Lower estimate of ultimately recoverable resources Upper estimate of ultimately recoverable resources Actual/Projected Production (5% pa decline 22 )
50 billion barrels of oil equivalent (resources) 65 UK Oil and Gas Resources and Production million barrels/day of oil equivalent (production) Cumulative Production Lower estimate of ultimately recoverable resources Upper estimate of ultimately recoverable resources Actual/Projected Production (5% pa decline 22 )
51
52 Thank you for your attention Mike Earp Senior Economist, UK Upstream Oil and Gas Authority Kings Buildings, 16 Smith Square, London SW1P 3HQ +44 () Further information is available from:
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