Petroplus. Overview & Outlook: Independent Refining February 17, 2009

Transcription

1 Petroplus Overview & Outlook: Independent Refining February 17, 29

2 Disclaimer While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated herein are accurate and that the opinions contained herein are fair and reasonable, this presentation is selective in nature and is intended to provide an introduction to, and overview of, the business of the Company. Any opinions expressed in this document are subject to change without notice and neither the Company nor any other person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which include all matters that are not historical facts. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that the Company s actual financial condition, results of operations and cash flows, and the development of the industry in which the Company operates, may differ materially from those made in or suggested by forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. No obligation is assumed to update any forward-looking statements. This presentation does not constitute an offer of securities in any jurisdiction. Securities cannot be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from registration. 2

3 Company Overview (1) Petroplus at a Glance Ticker Market Capitalization Number of Shares PPHN VX CHF 1,626 MM 69.6 MM Free Float 1% Head Office Location Zug, Switzerland Employees 2,88 Refinery Throughput Capacity 864, bpd PBF: Investment-In ownership (2) 33% (1) As of February 9, 29 (2) The Company entered into a partnership with the Blackstone Group and First Reserve to pursue acquisitions in North America. 3

4 Petroplus Growth Petroplus Refinery Acquisitions Net Debt to Net Capitalization 1 mbpd Petroplus 185, +59% 295, BRC 11, +55% +37% 45, Ingolstadt 11, +38% 625, Coryton 172,+ 7, 864, Pt. Couronne & Reichstett 239, % 46% June 26 Dec 28 Acquisition Criteria: Meaningfully accretive to earnings Cash flow positive from day 1 Maintain healthy balance sheet Improved trade credit Position for future acquisitions 4

5 Petroplus: Pure Play Multi-Site Refiner North Sea Refining System Inland Refining System Coryton Capacity: 172, bpd Other Input: 7, bpd Complexity: 12. Commissioned: 1953 Acquired: 27 Petit Couronne Capacity: 154, bpd Complexity: 7.3 Commissioned: 1929 Acquired: 28 Ingolstadt BRC Capacity: 11, bpd Complexity: 4.5 Commissioned: 1968 Acquired: 26 Teesside Capacity: 117, bpd Acquired: 2 Antwerp Processing Plant Acquired: 1997 Average complexity Capacity: 11, bpd Complexity: 7.3 Commissioned: 1963 Acquired: 27 Reichstett Capacity: 85, bpd Complexity: 5.3 Commissioned: 1963 Acquired: 28 Cressier Capacity: 68, bpd Complexity: 6.4 Commissioned: 1968 Acquired: 2 Source: Petroplus, Wood Mckenzie Including Teesside 7.2 Excluding Teesside 8. Europe 6. 5

6 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 6 Neste Bayernoil OMV Saras GALP StatoilHydro Mineralolref Oberrhein Preem Hellenic Ineos CEPSA ERG Eni ConocoPhillips Repsol BP Petroplus Nelson Complexity (2) Shell ExxonMobil Total Europe s Largest Independent Refiner (1) Sources: Oil and Gas Journal, Harts (1) Western European refining companies (EU15) with installed capacity greater than 25 mbpd mbpd

7 Millions of Barrels Petroplus Product Slate (4) 14 47% % 6 4 $ (1.) (2.) Net NWE 4:1:2:1 (1) in 28 Average 4 to date: $ : $ : $ 3.44 Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 11% (3) 2 4% 6% 4% 1% (2) 5% LPG Gasoline Naphtha Middle Distillates Low Sulfur Straight Run Petrochemicals Fuel Oil Fuel Consumed (1) Consists of: four Dated Brent/ one gasoline/two middle distillate/one heavy fuel oil net of fuel consumed in-production of 5%. 4 to-date and 9 contains data through 1/31/29. (2) Lubes represents 2% of the petrochemicals (3) Bitumen represents 22.5% of the fuel oil (4) Sources: Bloomberg, Petroplus 7

8 Peer analysis Product Mix % 6% 55% 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% * 92 Valero * Tesoro Frontier Sunoco Petroplus Saras ERG Neste mbpd Gasoline (%) Mid dist (%) Mbpd mid dist Source: Company filings Q3 28. The displayed data represent the first 9 months of operations in 28. * Valero production of mid dist at 92 Mbpd changes scale. 8

9 Balance Gasoline and Mid dist , mbpd Mid Dist Europe Gasoline North America Source: Cera Europe is structurally short of mid dist and North America is short of gasoline. 9

10 Expected Demand by Region mpbd CAGR, % 35 4.% Drivers of Demand Worldwide GDP growth Population growth Vehicle affordability % 3.% 2.5% 2.% % 1 1.%.5% 5.% Asia Pacific Middle East North America Latin America Greater Europe FSU Sub-Saharan Africa -.5% Grow th Rate Source: Wood Mackenzie 1

11 GDP & Oil Demand Growth Correlation between GDP & Oil Demand Growth 4.25% GDP Growth Oil Demand Growth 3.75% 3.25% 2.75% 2.25% 1.75% Recovery after the recession in the early 199 s Emerging markets driving strong world growth Global Economic Crisis 1.25%.75%.25% Asian financial crisis Technology bubble bursts -.25% -.75% Sources: Euromonitor, BP, Wood Mckenzie 11

12 Announced vs Expected Capacity Additions 7, mbpd Africa Asia Pacific FSU Europe Latin America Middle East North America mbpd 2,5 6, 2, 1,5 5, 1, 5 2,95 4, , 1, , 1, Source: Pira Jan 29 [call-out = Average (Firm, Firm + Probable)] Firm Firm + Probable Firm + Probable + Less likely 12

13 Continued Delays in Capacity Additions Cost inflation, regulatory hurdles, economics and financing are resulting in delays mbpd 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Cancelled and Delayed Projects 29 Status Essar Oils Refinery Expansion, India Marathon Upgrading Project, Detroit, USA Jubail Refinery, Saudi Arabia Ceyhan Refinery, Turkey Cilacap Refinery Expansion, Indonesia Balikpapan Refinery Expansion, Indonesia Fujairah Refinery, U.A.E. Completion pushed back to 211 Completion pushed back to 212 & costs increased Aiming to reduce project costs $1.2 billion Capacity (Mbpd) 32-4 Project pushed back 2 Project pushed back due to the economic crisis Project pushed back due to the economic crisis Project pushed back due to the economic crisis Outlook 12 months ago 24 months ago Source: Wood Mckenzie, Hart Energy Representing the capacity gap resulting from delays and cancellations in the Middle East. 13

14 Utilization Utilization Rate (%) 1% 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% 65% 6% 55% 5% Dec-8 Average Utilization Rate Europe Average Utilization Rate US Utilization rates have most likely peaked as safety, reliability and environmental requirements require more attention Sources: BP, IEA, EIA 14

15 Evolution of Product Specifications ppm Diesel & Gasoline ppm Bunker fuel 1 5, 45, 8 4, 35, 3, 5 5 2, 3 15, 15* , 1, Diesel & Gasoline EU Gasoline US Diesel US 1, Worldwide ECA California Refining cleaner fuels results in additional hydrogen costs for desulphurization, further investment, costs to ensure product quality in-transit and increased turnaround activity. Sources: Hart Energy, Wood Mackenzie, Petroplus * 8% of the on-road diesel in the U.S. was capped at 15 ppm in

16 Freight cost of moving mid distillates Antwerp to New York Ras Tanura to Yokohama Jamnagar to Antwerp year average (24-28) USD / bbl Source: Pira 16

17 Alternative fuels - globally Refinery vs non-refinery supply of gasoline & diesel and gasoil mbpd 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 2% 8% 9% 3% % % 2% 2% Non-refinery Gasoline Refinery Gasoline Non-refinery Diesel/Gasoil Refinery Diesel/Gasoil Source: Wood Mackenzie The displayed % is representing non-refinery supply s part of total supply. 17

18 Tightness in Global Refining Capacity Global Supply, Demand and Capacity Capacity Surplus 3% mbpd 1, Capacity Surplus 23% Capacity Surplus 9% 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Global Product Supply Global Refining Capacity Global Product Demand Source: BP 18

19 Refining Industry Factors Regional capacity/regional demand (& population) Refining capacity additions Delays in discretionary capital programs (economics) Utilization GDP & Oil Demand growth Individual refined product demand Local product demand Alternative fuels/biofuels Fuel Specifications Logistics/Economics of importing/exporting Car fleet 19

20 Key Values Enhanced Stakeholder Value Leading Pure Play Multi-Site European Refiner Appropriate Capital Structure Focus on Safety and Operational Excellence Disciplined Acquisition Strategy Strong Track Record of Management Team 2

21 Everything Depends on Safety & Environmental Compliance 21