Focus on Refinery Product Flows

Transcription

1 December 14, 2016 Focus on Refinery Product Flows Stratas Advisors Gasoline Imports in 2014 CIS and the Middle East are the largest gasoline exporters to Asia. While China and India do not import gasoline as they have enough refinery capacity to meet domestic demand, other countries remain importers. For example, Malaysia has a substantial deficit in domestic gasoline production and relies heavily on gasoline import to meet over 50% of demand. Gasoline Exports in 2014 Small volumes of gasoline are exported to Europe, Middle East and Africa. India is the only major gasoline exporter of gasoline to markets outside of Asia-Pacific. Most of other Asian countries are gasoline importers. One of the reasons is the lack of light oil processing capacity and deep conversion capacity. The closing of the gap will require major investments, which presents a problem for the smaller Asian economies. Middle Distillate Imports in 2014 CIS is essentially the only region to complement domestic supply. China had been a major importer due to heavy industrialization in last decade and has represented about half of the region s imports. Investments in refinery capacity within CIS have enabled exports to Asia-Pacific. In particular, Russian investment in hydroprocessing to meet more stringent fuel specification coupled with additions of deep conversion capacity have resulted in Russia being a major supplier to Asian countries.

2 Middle Distillate Exports in 2014 India s share of exports is about two-thirds of total exports from Asia-Pacific. India has invested heavily in deep conversion capacity and additional refinery capacity since The investment in hydroprocessing and deep conversion has helped Indian refiners to meet more stringent fuel specifications and meet the growing demand. Middle East and Europe are the major exporter of naphtha to Asia. Europe has been able to increase the supply of naphtha because of its availability stemming from the declining demand for gasoline. Three-quarters of naphtha imports are routed to China. China s import of naphtha is needed for its petrochemical industry. As with the rest of Asia, China s petrochemical industry is mostly naphtha based. Most of the naphtha-based petrochemical industry has been added in Asia to meet domestic demand with investments taking place in China, South Korea and India.

3 Naphtha Exports in 2014 Asia has essentially no exports of naphtha. Fuel Oil Import to Asia in 2014 Africa, Europe and Middle East are major suppliers of fuel oil. Half of fuel oil imports move to India and China (China fuel oil import is three times more than India) with the rest of Asia importing the other half of fuel oil. The investment in deep conversion capacity in China and India to meet higher middle distillate demand and the resulting reduction in fuel oil production has led to higher imports for fuel oil in China and India. Fuel Oil Exports in 2014 Only limited export of fuel oil is reported in Asia. Exports are mainly from India. Product Flows The outlook for the imports and exports of products to and from the Asia-Pacific region is provided below for 2020 and Gasoline Imports in 2020 Imports from CIS are expected to decline, while imports from Europe and North America are expected to increase in comparison with the levels of Imports from North America will be the result of elevated refinery runs in the U.S. because of cost-advantaged refinery inputs. Imports from Europe will increase because European refineries will have excess capacity in comparison to the needs of Europe. In contrast, CIS would need to make investments in light oil processing capacity to increase gasoline production and to meet future gasoline specifications. Gasoline Exports in 2020 Gasoline exports from Asia will decline. Only India is expected to remain a gasoline exporter.

4 Gasoline Imports in 2030 Gasoline imports from Europe will decline while imports from Middle East and North America will increase. It is expected that China and India will not any imports. Instead, the import requirement will be associated with the rest of the region, including Australia, which is expected to increase its level of imports. Gasoline Exports in 2030 Gasoline exports will be essentially eliminated from Asia in Middle Distillate Imports in 2020 Imports from the CIS region are expected to increase. Additionally, the Middle East is expected to emerge as a supplier of middle distillates to Asia-Pacific by Middle distillate imports to China are expected to remain stable while imports to rest of Asia-Pacific (except for India, which is expected to remain an exporter) are expected to increase. Middle Distillate Exports in 2020 Exports from Asia to Middle East are expected to be eliminated by The focus of exports is expected to shift toward Africa while the overall level of exports is reduced. India s share of exports is expected to be about two-thirds of the total for Asia-Pacific. China is not expected to be an exporter of middle distillates outside of the region. Middle Distillate Imports in 2030 Imports from the Middle East are expected to increase significantly by Imports to China are expected to remain stable with the increase in imports associated with the rest of Asia-Pacific (except for India, which will remain an exporter of middle distillates). Middle Distillate Exports in 2030 By 2030, essentially only Arica will remain an outlet for exports from Asia-Pacific. Furthermore, it is expected that almost all of the exports will come from India. Naphtha Imports in 2020

5 The Middle East and Europe will be major providers of naphtha to Asia-Pacific. Imports to the region are expected to increase slightly in comparison with 2014 with three-quarters of naphtha imports going to China. With ethane expected to remain cheaper than naphtha as petrochemical feedstock, the addition of more ethylene capacity in the U.S. will have an impact on naphtha imports. Instead of importing naphtha, the Asian countries will import some petrochemicals directly from the U.S. Naphtha Exports in 2020 Since Asia-Pacific will be short of naphtha, essentially no exports are expected. Naphtha Imports in 2030 Imports of Middle East naphtha are expected to continue to grow. China is expected to remain the major importer of naphtha representing approximately three-quarters of the region s imports. Naphtha Imports in 2030 With Asia-Pacific expected to remain short of naphtha, essentially no exports are expected from the region. Fuel Oil Imports in 2020 Asia-Pacific is expected to remain an importer of fuel oil with the region adding conversion capacity. Imports to India and China are expected to represented approximately half of the region s imports with China s imports some four times that of India. Fuel Oil Exports in 2020 Only limited exports of fuel oil are expected with the exports mainly from India.

6 Fuel Oil Imports in 2030 Imports from Russia are expected to increase significantly. China is expected to be the major importer (representing approximately half of the region s imports) with imports to India remaining stable and imports to the rest of the region declining. Fuel Oil Exports in 2030 Exports from region are expected to be essentially non-existent by You May Also Like... North American Oil North America Natural Gas Global Natural Gas 2018 Stratas Advisors South Voss Road Suite 675 Houston, TX United States stratasadvisors.com