Sunflower & Soybean Forum

Transcription

1 Sunflower & Soybean Forum 11 October 2017 Nico Hawkins General Manager

2 Sunflower

3 Sunflower: Supply & Demand National vs. International Marketing season SAGIS NAMC (S&D) International (USDA) Marketing year Final: 2016/17 (c ) '000t Projection: Final: 2016/17 (d) 2017/18 (d) Mt Mt Opening stocks Production Imports Processed (b1) (b) Exports Closing stocks (a) (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users ( (b) t - (b1) t) (c) Source: SAGIS 27 Sep '17 & NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '17 (d) Source: USDA - 29 Sep '17 Mar - Feb Projection: 2017/18 (c ) '000t Sept - Aug

4 Sunflower: Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer deliveries Sunflower 2016/ /16 CEC Production * SAGIS Deliveries Difference * Final estimate ** SAGIS Progr: Mar - Aug ' /18 Ton

5 Sunflower: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries Ton SUNFLOWERSEED : CEC Crop Est., Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Source: S&DEC Yield /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Aug 17/18 Proj. 0.00

6 Sunflower: Imports & Exports 2017/18 Progressive Summarised info Marketing year 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Aug' / /16 Import Export *Progr: Mar - Aug '17 Source: SAGIS Sunflower Ton

7 Sunflower: Imports & Exports per marketing year Ton SUNFLOWERSEED: Imports & Exports Imports Exports Source: S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Aug 17/18 Proj.

8 Sunflower: Imports for RSA (2017/18: 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Month Argentina China Egypt Malawi Ton Month Total Progr. Total 2017/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ TOTAL 2017/ /18 - Mar - Aug '17 Source: SAGIS SARS: t Sunflower seeds Whether or not broken

9 Sunflower: RSA Exports (2017/18: 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Month Botswana Namibia Swaziland Ton Month Total Progr. Total 2017/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ TOTAL 2017/ /18 - Mar - Aug '17 Source: SAGIS SARS: 667 t Sunflower seeds Whether or not broken

10 Sunflower: Processed Sunflower Processed 2017/18 * 2016/17 ** Firms Tons Firms Tons Human Consumption Animal Feed Oil and Oilcake * 2017/18: Mar - Aug '17 Source: SAGIS ** 2016/17: Mar - Aug '16

11 Sunflower: Consumption Ton SUNFLOWERSEED : Crushed Source: S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Aug 17/18 Proj.

12 Sunflower: 2017/18 Marketing Year SUNFLOWER: 2017/18 Season - Mar to Aug' S&DEC Deliveries 500 S&DEC Imports S&DEC Processed 300 S&DEC Exports CEC (Crop Est) Prod deliveries Imports Processed Exports 121

13 Sunflower: Opening & Ending Stocks Ton SUNFLOWERSEED: Stocks Opening stock Ending Stock Source: S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Aug 17/18 Proj.

14 Sunflower: Price Movements SAFEX Local prices Sunflower - SAFEX Latest prices vs previous prices Future prices for: 2017/10/ /09/ /10/03 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year R/Ton R/Ton R/Ton Dec ' Mar ' Source: SAFEX

15 Sunflower: Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices 2017/10/03 French Sunflower Bordaux $/t FOB value $/t Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 1.15 Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t Converted to R/t: Exhange R/$ (2017/10/03) Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t Discharge cost - Durban Import tariff 0.00 Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban Railage: Durban - Randfontein DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein Delivered: Durban - Randfontein (2016/10/04) Current SAFEX spot price (2017/10/03) R/t

16 Sunflower Oil: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Sunflower Oil - Crude ( ) Sunflower Oil - Crude Other ( ) Sunflower Oil - Cooking ( ) Sunflower Oil - Other ( ) Quantity Imports (T on) FOB Total value of imports R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Sunflower Oil - Crude ( ) Sunflower Oil - Crude Other ( ) Sunflower Oil - Cooking ( ) Sunflower Oil - Other ( ) Quantity Exports (T on) FOB Total value of exports R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Source: SARS

17 Sunflower Oilcake: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Oilcake - Sunflower seeds ( ) Imports Total value of imports Quantity (T on) FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Oilcake - Sunflower seeds ( ) Exports Total value of exports Quantity (T on) FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Source: SARS

18 Sunflower: SARS FOB Prices Imports per country Sunflower seeds whether or nor broken (2017/18 : 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Imports T ariff Line Sunflower seeds - whether or not broken Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Argentina Bulgaria Chile China Hungary India Israel Malawi Thailand Turkey Ukraine Unknown Zimbabwe Total /18: Mar - Aug '17 Souce: SARS

19 Sunflower : SARS FOB Prices Exports per country Sunflower seeds whether or not broken (2017/18 : 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Exports T ariff Line Sunflower seeds - whether or not broken Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Angola Austria Botswana Chile Congo Dem Rep Of France Ghana Kenya Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Sierra Leone Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Uganda United States Zambia Zimbabwe Total /18: Mar - Aug '17 Source: SARS

20 Soybeans

21 Soybeans: Supply & Demand (National vs. International Marketing season SAGIS NAMC (S&D) International (USDA) Marketing year Sept - Aug Final: Projection: 2016/17 (d) 2017/18 (d) Mt Mt Opening stocks Production Imports Processed (b1) (b) Exports Closing stocks 84.8 (a) (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users ( (b) t - (b1) t) (c) Source: SAGIS 27 Sep '17 & NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '17 (d) Source: USDA - 29 Sep '17 Mar - Feb Final: Projection: 2016/17 (c ) '000t 2017/18 (c ) '000t

22 Soybeans: Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries Soybean 2016/ /16 CEC Production * Less Retentions Total available SAGIS Deliveries ** Difference * Final estimate ** SAGIS Progr: Mar - Aug ' /18 Ton

23 Soybeans: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries Ton SOYBEANS: CEC Crop Est., Ha, Yield & SAGIS Deliveries SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Source: S&DEC Yield /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Aug 17/18 Proj. 0.00

24 Soybeans: Imports & Exports 2017/18 Progressive Summarised Info Marketing year 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Aug' / /16 Import Export *Progr: Mar - Aug '17 Source: SAGIS Soybean Ton

25 Soybeans Imports & Exports per marketing year Ton SOYBEANS: Imports & Exports Imports Exports 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Aug Source: S&DEC 17/18 Proj.

26 Soybeans: Imports for RSA (2017/18: 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Month Ethiopia Malawi Zambia Month Total Progressive Total 2017/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ TOTAL 2017/ /18 - Mar - Aug '17 Source: SAGIS Ton SARS: t Soybean Whether or nor broken

27 Soybeans: RSA Exports (2017/18: 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Month Botwana Mozambique Month Total Ton Progressive Total 2017/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ TOTAL 2017/ /18 - Mar - Aug '17 Source: SAGIS SARS: t Soybean Whether or nor broken

28 Soybeans: Processed Soybeans Processed Firms Tons Firms Tons Human Consumption Animal Feed Oil and Oilcake * 2017/18: Mar - Aug '17 Source: SAGIS ** 2016/17: Mar - Aug ' /18 * 2016/17 **

29 Soybeans: Consumption Ton SOYBEANS: Processed Human Animal feed (full fat soya) Crush (oil/oilcake) Source: S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Aug 17/18 Proj.

30 Soybeans: Opening & Ending Stocks Ton SOYBEANS: Stock Opening stock Ending Stock 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Aug Source: S&DEC 17/18 Proj.

31 Soybeans: Price Movements SAFEX Local prices Soybean - SAFEX Latest prices vs previous prices Future prices for: 2017/10/ /09/ /10/03 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year R/Ton R/Ton R/Ton Dec ' Mar ' Source: SAFEX

32 Soybeans: Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices 2017/10/03 Argentine Soybeans Up River $/t FOB value $/t Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 1.13 Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t Converted to R/t: Exhange R/$ (2017/10/03) Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t Discharge cost - Durban Import tariff Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban Railage: Durban - Randfontein DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein Delivered: Durban - Randfontein (2016/10/04) Current SAFEX spot price (2017/10/03) R/t

33 Soybeans: Price Movements CBOT International prices Soybean - CBOT Latest prices vs previous prices Contract: 2017/10/ /09/ /10/03 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton November ' January ' Source: CBOT

34 Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Oilcake : Soybeans Oilcake: Soybeans ( ) Imports Quantity (T on) Total value of imports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Oilcake: Soybeans ( ) Exports Quantity (T on) Total value of exports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Source: SARS

35 Source: SARS Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Soybeans Crude Oil & Other Soybean Oil - Crude ( ) Soybean Oil - Other ( ) Soybean Oil - Other Food ( ) Soybean Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Imports (T on) Total value of imports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Soybean Oil - Crude ( ) Soybean Oil - Other ( ) Soybean Oil - Other Food ( ) Soybean Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Exports (T on) Total value of exports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on

36 Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Palm Oil Crude & Other Palm Oil - Crude ( ) Palm Oil - Other ( ) Palm Oil - Other Food ( ) Palm Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Imports (T on) Total value of imports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Palm Oil - Crude ( ) Palm Oil - Other ( ) Palm Oil - Other Food ( ) Palm Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Exports (T on) Total value of exports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on

37 Palm oil: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Palm Kernel Oil: Crude & Other Palm Kernel Oil - Crude ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Other ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Crude Other ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Imports (T on) FOB Total value of imports R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Palm Kernel Oil - Crude ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Other ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Crude Other ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Exports (T on) FOB Total value of exports R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on

38 Cottonseed: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Oilcake: Cottonseed Oilcake: Cottonseed ( ) Imports Total value of imports Quantity (T on) FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Oilcake: Cottonseed ( ) Exports Quantity (T on) Total value of exports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Source: SARS

39 Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Imports per country Soybeans whether or not broken (2017/18 : 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Imports T ariff Line Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton FOB value R'000 FOB Rand/ton Argentina China Ethiopia France Malawi Namibia Nigeria Taiwan, Prov of China Thailand United States Zambia Zimbabwe Total /18: Mar - Aug '17 Source: SARS

40 Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Exports per country Soybeans whether or not broken (2017/18 : 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Exports Tariff Line Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton FOB value R'000 FOB Rand/ton Angola Botswana Canada Lesotho Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Swaziland Zambia Zimbabwe Total /18: Mar - Aug '17 Source: SARS

41 All oil cake: Price Movements (2017/18 : 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Imports Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS All oil cake: Cotton seed Groundnut oil Linseed Rape or colza seeds (All) Soybean Sunflower ALL OIL CAKE Quantity (T on) FOB R'000 FOB R/T on 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ /

42 All oil: Price Movements (2017/18 : 1 Mar 31 Aug 17) Imports Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS All oil: Soybean oil (All) Groundnut oil (All) Palm oil (All) Sunflower oil (All) Palm kernel oil (All) Vegetable oil (All) ALL OIL Quantity (T on) FOB R'000 FOB R/T on 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Aug 2016/ /

43 Oilseeds Products

44 Oilseeds: Products Manufactured (1 Nov Aug 17) Manufactured Aug '17 Tons Progressive: Nov '16 - Aug '17 Tons Palm Oil and Derivatives 0 0 Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Cottonseed Oil 0 0 Coconut Oil/ Groundnut Oil/ Canola Oil/ Corn (Maize) Oil/ Blends or mixes of Oils which includes one of the above Oils/ Biodiesel Cottonseed Oilcake 0 0 Sunflower Oilcake Coconut Oilcake 0 0 Palmnut Oilcake 0 0 Soybean Oilcake/ Canola Oilcake Soybean Flours and Meals/ T extured Vegetable Protein Soybean Fullfat Peanut Butter and Paste Total

45 Oilseeds: Crushing percentage Progr. Dec '16 to Jul '17 Crushing % Oil Oilcake Rest % % % Soybeans Sunflowerseed

46 Oilseeds: Products Imported (1 Nov Aug 17) Imported Aug '17 Tons Progressive: Nov '16 - Aug '17 Tons Palm Oil and Derivatives Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Cottonseed Oil Coconut Oil/ Groundnut Oil/ Canola Oil/ Corn (Maize) Oil/ Blends or mixes of Oils which includes one of the above Oils/ Biodiesel Cottonseed Oilcake Sunflower Oilcake Coconut Oilcake 0 0 Palmnut Oilcake 0 0 Soybean Oilcake/ Canola Oilcake Soybean Flours and Meals/ T extured Vegetable Protein 0 0 Soybean Fullfat 0 0 Peanut Butter and Paste Total

47 Oilseeds: Products Exported (1 Nov Aug 17) Exported Aug '17 Tons Progressive: Nov '16 - Aug '17 Tons Palm Oil and Derivatives Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Cottonseed Oil 0 0 Coconut Oil/ Groundnut Oil/ Canola Oil/ Corn (Maize) Oil/ Blends or mixes of Oils which includes one of the above Oils/ Biodiesel Cottonseed Oilcake 0 0 Sunflower Oilcake Coconut Oilcake 0 0 Palmnut Oilcake 0 0 Soybean Oilcake/ Canola Oilcake Soybean Flours and Meals/ T extured Vegetable Protein 0 27 Soybean Fullfat Peanut Butter and Paste Total

48 Price Movements Products: Year on year price changes August % Year % Year Price Price Price on Year on Year R R R Brick Margarine 500g Peanut Butter 400g Sunflower Oil 750ml Source: SA Statistics

49 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Price Movements Products: prices: (Aug 08 Aug 17) Rand Sunflower oil 750ml Margarine Brick 500g Peanut butter 400g PRICES: OILSEEDS PRODUCTS

50 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Price Movements Products: Index (Jan 08 Aug 17) % 300 OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX % Sunflower Oil 750 ml Peanut Butter 400 gr Margarine Brick 500 gr

51 Oilseeds Admin

52 Sunflower & Soybean: Inspection Mass over declared Mass under declared Total mass incorrectly declared Total utilized audited Mass incorrectly declared as % of total utilized Net effect of (under) / over declared Ton % Ton a b c d c : d a - b Canola Groundnuts (397) Soybeans (2 051) Sunflower

53 Sunflower & Soybean: Co-workers Sunflower: Firms registered with SAGIS Traders % Storers % Soybeans: Firms registered with SAGIS Traders % Storers % Harbour silo owners 7 6.6% Processors % Total firms: 106 Harbour silo owners % Processors % Total firms: 109

54 Sunflower & Soybean: Member basis Member basis of subscription -1 March 2016 to 28 February T he Oil & Protein Seeds Dev. T rust 15.5% The Maize T rust 66.1% Sorghum T rust 4.7% Winter Cereal T rust 13.7%

55 Acknowledgement Board of Directors Dr John Purchase Chairperson Mr Anton Nebe Vice-Chairperson The Oil and Protein Seeds Dev. Trust & Oilseeds Industry is represented by: Mr Gerhard Scholtemeijer Mr De Wet Boshoff Ms Marie vd Merwe (Alternate)

56 Acknowledgement Gratitude The following parties makes it possible to fulfil SAGIS commitments: Oilseeds Forum Advisory Committee Oil and Protein Seeds Development Trust Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff

57 Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS website under Presentations Thank you