Advance Trading, Inc. Supply/Demand Summary

Transcription

1 Advance Trading, Inc. Supply/Demand Summary Corn Planted Acres % Harvested 91.8% 92.2% 91.7% 91.7% 91.7% 91.7% Harvested Acres Yield (BU/AC) Begin Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2, ,182 2,102 (80) Production 13,602 15,148 14,604 14, ,040 14,040 0 Imports (5) TOTAL SUPPLY 15,401 16,942 16,947 16,942 (5) 16,272 16,192 (80) Exports 1,901 2,293 2,225 2, ,100 2,100 0 Feed Use 5,114 5,472 5,500 5, ,375 5,350 (25) Food/Ind./Seed 6,648 6,883 7,040 7, ,115 7, Ethanol for Fuel 5,224 5,432 5,575 5, ,625 5, TOTAL USAGE 13,664 14,649 14,765 14, ,590 14, END STOCKS 1,737 2,293 2,182 2,102 (80) 1,682 1,577 (105) Stocks to Use 12.7% 15.7% 14.8% 14.2% 11.5% 10.8% U.S. Farm Price $3.61 $ Soybeans Planted Acres % Harvested 98.8% 99.2% 99.3% 99.3% 99.1% 99.1% Harvested Acres Yield (BU/AC) Begin Stocks (25) Production 3,926 4,296 4,392 4, ,280 4,280 0 Imports TOTAL SUPPLY 4,140 4,515 4,718 4, ,835 4,810 (25) Crush 1,886 1,901 1,990 2, ,995 2,000 5 Exports 1,942 2,174 2,065 2, ,290 2,290 0 Seed Residual TOTAL USAGE 3,944 4,213 4,188 4, ,420 4,425 5 END STOCKS (25) (30) Stocks to Use 5.0% 7.2% 12.7% 12.0% 9.4% 8.7% U.S. Farm Price $8.95 $9.47 $9.35 $

2 Soybean Oil (Million Pounds) Begin Stocks 1,855 1,687 1,711 1, ,896 2, Production 21,950 22,123 22,885 23, ,040 23, Imports TOTAL SUPPLY 24,092 24,129 24,896 25, ,236 25, Domestic Disap. 20,162 19,862 20,700 20,600 (100) 21,300 21,300 0 Biodiesel 5,670 6,200 6,800 6, ,300 7,300 0 Food,Feed&Other 14,492 13,661 13,900 13,800 (100) 14,000 14,000 0 Exports 2,243 2,556 2,300 2, ,100 2,100 0 TOTAL USAGE 22,405 22,418 23,000 23, ,400 23,400 0 END STOCKS 1,687 1,711 1,896 2, ,836 2, Stocks to Use 7.5% 7.6% 8.2% 9.5% 7.8% 9.3% Average Price Soybean Meal (Thousand Short Tons) Begin Stocks Production 44,672 44,787 47,099 47, ,250 47, Imports TOTAL SUPPLY 45,336 45,400 48,000 48, ,900 48, Domestic Disap. 33,118 33,399 35,000 35, ,200 35, Exports 11,954 11,601 12,700 13, ,400 12,400 0 TOTAL USAGE 45,072 45,000 47,700 48, ,600 47, END STOCKS Average Price

3 Sorghum Planted Acres % Harvested 92.9% 92.5% 89.3% 89.3% 86.4% 86.4% Harvested Acres Yield (BU/AC) Begin Stocks Production Imports TOTAL SUPPLY Feed/Residual FSI (50) Exports (15) TOTAL USAGE END STOCKS Stocks to Use 6.3% 6.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% U.S. Farm Price $3.31 $ All Wheat Planted Acres % Harvested 86.0% 87.6% 81.7% 81.7% 82.2% 84.1% Harvested Acres Yield (BU/AC) Begin Stocks ,181 1, ,070 1, Production 2,062 2,309 1,741 1, ,821 1,827 6 Imports TOTAL SUPPLY 2,927 3,402 3,076 3, ,027 3, Food Seed Feed/Residual Exports 778 1, (10) TOTAL USAGE 1,951 2,222 2,006 1,996 (10) 2,072 2, END STOCKS 976 1,181 1,070 1, (9) Stocks to Use 50.0% 53.2% 53.3% 54.1% 46.1% 45.1% U.S. Farm Price $4.89 $3.89 $4.70 $

4 Wheat by Class USDA USDA May/Jun ATI** May Jun Change Est. 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 17/18 17/18 18/19 Hard Red Winter Begin Stocks Production , TOTAL SUPPLY 1, ,130 1,533 1,347 1, ,181 Domestic Use Exports TOTAL USAGE END STOCKS (10) 401 Stocks to Use 27.2% 42.5% 65.1% 62.5% 69.2% 67.1% 51.4% Hard Red Spring Begin Stocks Production TOTAL SUPPLY Domestic Use Exports (5) 225 TOTAL USAGE (5) 492 END STOCKS Stocks to Use 30.0% 36.6% 48.9% 41.2% 39.1% 40.5% 67.1% Soft Red Winter Begin Stocks Production TOTAL SUPPLY Domestic Use Exports TOTAL USAGE END STOCKS Stocks to Use 18.8% 36.1% 41.9% 67.2% 74.1% 74.1% 73.5% **July is the first published wheat-by-clas projections for 18/19.

5 Cotton Planted Acres % Harvested 94.1% 94.4% 88.0% 88.0% 82.6% 82.6% Harvested Acres Yield (Pounds/AC) Begin Stocks (0.50) Production Imports TOTAL SUPPLY (0.50) Domestic Use Exports TOTAL USAGE Unaccounted END STOCKS (0.50) (0.50) Stocks to Use 30.2% 15.1% 24.9% 21.7% 27.5% 24.9% U.S. Farm Price This material is a solicitation to enter into a derivatives transaction. The information and data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Advance Trading Inc. ("Advance") does not warrant their accuracy or completeness. Recommendations and opinions contained herein reflect the judgment of Advance as of the date hereof, are subject to change, and are based on certain assumptions, only some of which are noted herein. Different assumptions could yield substantially different results. You are cautioned that there is no universally accepted method for analyzing financial instruments. Advance does not guarantee any results and there is no guarantee as to the liquidity of the instruments involved in our analysis. Advance, itsaffiliates, and its and their officers, directors, and employees may sell or purchase, for their own account or for customers, positions in futures, options or other instruments which may be similar or different from the positions referred to herein. As a matter of policy, Advance does not give tax, accounting, regulatory or legal advice to clients. Clients therefore should consult their own advisors regarding the tax, accounting and legal implications of the recommended strategies before transactions are affected. Trading commodity futures and options involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Information relating to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Reproduction in any form without Advance's express written consent is strictly forbidden.