2011 Indiana Agricultural Outlook

Transcription

1 2011 Indiana Agricultural Outlook Corinne Alexander & Chris Hurt September 13, 2010

2 World Economic Growth Ethanol Dollar Value

3 Surprises and Uncertainty! Change Wheat Production 2010 vs World -5.6% Canada -15.1% FSU % EU -22.4% Ukraine -2.2% U.S %

4 10% 8% Quarterly Real GDP: % 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10%

5 Percent 6 3 Month, 3 Year, 10 Year, and 20 Year Treasury Rates Year Treasury 10 Year Treasury 3 Year Treasury 3 Month Treasury JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND

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8 Corn: USDA 9/10/10 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Million Bu. Carryin 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,386 Production 13,074 12,092 13,110 13,160 Total Supply 14,398 13,729 14,791 14,556 Feed & Residual 5,974 5,205 5,525 5,250 FSI Non-Fuel 1,338 1,316 1,365 1,390 FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 3,026 3,677 4,535 4,700 Export 2,436 1,858 1,980 2,100 Total Use 12,774 12,056 13,405 13,440 Ending Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,386 1,116 US Farm Price $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $4.00-$4.80 $4.40

9 Percent of Use Corn: Ending Stocks U.S. World

10 $/Bu. $5.00 $4.90 $4.80 $4.70 $4.60 $4.50 $4.40 $4.30 $4.20 $4.10 $4.00 Futures Estimates of Cash Prices: $4.72 $4.63 $4.47 Dec Futures = $4.78 U.S. Central Ind Avg U.S. Central Ind. Avg Southern indiana S. Ind Avg S O N D J F M A M J J A

11 $5.00 $4.90 $4.80 $4.70 $4.60 $4.50 $4.40 $4.30 $4.20 $4.10 $4.00 Central Indiana Cash Corn Futures Forecast: $ Dec Futures = $ S O N D J F M A M J J A $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00 -$0.20

12 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/ Corn + Soybean Biofuel Acres by 2020 (Millions) Crop Years

13 700 China Corn Trade: Million Bushels Imports Exports

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15 Soybeans:USDA 9/10/10 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Million Bushels Carryin Production 2,676 2,967 3,359 3,483 Total Supply 3,260 3,185 3,512 3,643 Seed & Residual Crush 1,801 1,662 1,750 1,650 Exports 1,161 1,283 1,495 1,485 Total Use 3,055 3,047 3,362 3,293 Ending Stock Farm Price $10.10 $9.97 $9.60 $9.15-$10.65 $9.90

16 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 Percent of Use Soybean Carryover Stocks-to-Use U.S. World

17 $10.80 Futures Estimates of Cash Prices: $10.60 $ $10.20 $10.00 $9.80 $9.60 $9.85 $10.11 Nov Futures = $10.31 U.S. Central Ind Avg U.S. Avg Central Ind Southern Ind Cash S. Ind Avg S O N D J F M A M J J A

18 $10.60 $10.40 $10.20 $10.00 $9.80 $9.60 $9.40 Central Indiana Cash Soybean Futures Forecast: $ Nov Futures = $ Returns to On- Farm Storage 0.00 S O N D J F M A M J J A $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00 -$0.20 -$0.40

19 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, China Soybean Trade: Million Bushels Imports Exports

20 Soybean Imports from the U.S.: 1990/ /11 (Million Bu.) FAS Data China Mexico Japan

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22 Wheat: USDA 9/10/10 07/08 08/09 09/10 09/11 Million Bushels Carryin Production 2,067 2,499 2,216 2,264 Total Supply 2,635 2,932 2,991 3,338 Feed & Residual Other Domestic 1,035 1, ,016 Exports 1,264 1, ,250 Total Use 2,329 2,275 2,018 2,436 End Stocks Farm Price $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $ $5.65 $5.30

23 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Percent of Use Wheat: World and U.S. Endings Stocks U.S World

24 With $5.10 U.S. price averages expect about $42/acre of 10 Crop ACRE Payments. Crop in 2009 will average around $58/acre

25 700 China Wheat Trade: Million Bushels Imports Exports

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27 Variable Costs (Average Cropland) Crops 2009 $/acre 2010 $/acre 2011 $/acre % 10 to 11 Continuous Corn % Rotation Corn % Rotation Soybeans % Wheat % Double Crop Soybeans %

28 Prices 2011 Estimated Crop Budget: Indiana: September 10, 2010 Corn Soybeans Wheat HarvestBasis $4.58 $10.26 $7.43 Expected Basis Expected Cash Price $4.23 $9.86 $6.63 Estimated Yield/Acre and Returns/Acre Above Variable Costs Corn $4.23 Soybeans $9.86 Wheat $6.63 Wheat/DC Beans Land Quality bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre $/acre Low $ $ $260 $329 Average $ $ $301 $422 High $ $ $371 $544 Budget: Purdue Id-166 (August 2010)

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30 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Domestic Per Capita Availability: % 3.0% 1.3% 1.7% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Beef Pork Broilers Turkey -0.8% -2.3% -2.3% -5.7%

31 $58 $56 $54 $52 $50 $48 $46 $44 $42 $40 $38 Barrow & Gilt prices and Per Capita Supplies $54.50 $55.00 $50.05 $47.84 $47.26 $47.09 Price Per Capita Supply $

32 $/cwt Estimated Hog Prices and Costs Per Live Hundredweight: $60 $55 $ $45 $ $35 Hog Price Costs $

33 $98 $93 Choice Steer per Capita Supplies and Prices $91.82 $92.27 $94.00 $ $88 $83 $78 $87.28 $85.41 $83.25 Price Per Capita Supply

34 $/Cwt. $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 U.S. All Milk Price

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36 $4,750 $4,500 $4,250 $4,000 $3,750 $3,500 $3,250 $3,000 $2,750 $2,500 $2,250 $2,000 $1,750 $1,500 $1,250 $1,000 $750 $500 Indiana Land Values and Cash Rents: Purdue Land Value Cash Rent $2,100 $913 $2,945 $2,173 $4,240 $4, $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60

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