Dynamics of Cottonseed Oil Price
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- Asher Maxwell
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1 Dynamics of Cottonseed Oil Price By Govindbhai G. Patel Managing Partner Cottonseed Conclave 2017 On 16 th December, 2017 At Ahmedabad (Gujarat) 1
2 India s Cotton Sowing Area (Figures in Lakh Ha.) During last seven years highest Cotton sowing area reported during 2014/15 at lakh Ha. and lowest Cotton sowing area reported during 2016/17 at lakh Ha. During the year 2017/18 Cotton sowing increased 19% to lakh Ha. against 2016/17 2
3 India s Cotton Production (Figures in Lakh Bales.) During last seven years highest Cotton production reported during 2013/14 at 400 lakh bales. and lowest Cotton production reported during 2010/11 at 325 lakh bales. It is estimated that Cotton Production may increase 11% during 2017/18 to 375 lakh bales. 3
4 Gujarat Cotton Area (Figures in Lakh Ha.) During last seven years highest Cotton sowing area in Gujarat reported during 2014/15 at lakh Ha. and lowest Cotton sowing area in Gujarat reported during 2016/17 at lakh Ha. During the year 2017/18 Cotton sowing in Gujarat increased 10% to lakh Ha. against 2016/17. 4
5 Gujarat Cotton Production (Figures in Lakh Bales.) During last seven years highest Cotton production reported in Gujarat during 2013/14 at 129 lakh bales. and lowest Cotton production reported during 2012/13 at 87 lakh bales. It is estimated that Cotton Production in Gujarat may increase 12% during 2017/18 to 100 lakh bales. 5
6 India s Cottonseed Production (Figures in Lakh MT) During last seven years highest Cottonseed production was during 2013/14 at 124 lakh MT. and lowest Cottonseed production was during 2010/11 at lakh MT. It is estimated that Cottonseed production may increase 11% during 2017/18 to lakh MT. 6
7 India s Monthly Cotton Arrival (Figures in Lakh Bales.) Month 2010/ / / / / / /17 Avg. (2010/11 to 2016/17 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct TOTAL % 17% If you take average of last 7 years, 83% of Cotton arrives during Nov to Apr and remaining 17% arrives in May to Oct. 7
8 India s Monthly Cottonseed Crushing (Figures in Lakh MT) Month 2010/ / / / / / /17 Avg. (2010/11 to 2016/17 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct TOTAL % 37% If you take monthly average of last 7 years, 63% of Cottonseed is crushed during Nov to Apr and remaining 37% is crushed during May to Oct. 8
9 India s Monthly Cottonseed Oil Production (Figures in Lakh MT) Month 2010/ / / / / / /17 Avg. (2010/11 to 2016/17 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct TOTAL % 37% If you take monthly average of last 7 years, 63% Cottonseed oil is produced during Nov to Apr and 37% is produced during May to Oct. 9
10 India s Monthly Cottonseed Oil Cake Production (Figures in Lakh MT) Month 2010/ / / / / / /17 Avg. (2010/11 to 2016/17 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct TOTAL % 37% If you take monthly average of last 7 years, 63% Cottonseed Oilcake is produced during Nov to Apr and 37% is produced during May to Oct. 10
11 India s Domestic Production of Edible Oils And Cottonseed Oil Production (Figures in Lakh MT) Year Total Domestic Production of Edible Oils Cottonseed Oil Production Cottonseed Oil Production % of TTL 2010/ % 2011/ % 2012/ % 2013/ % 2014/ % 2015/ % 2016/ % 11
12 India s Edible Oils Consumption And Cottonseed Oil Consumption (Figures in Lakh MT) Year Total Consumption of Edible Oils Cottonseed Oil Consumption Cottonseed Oil Consumption % of TTL 2010/ % 2011/ % 2012/ % 2013/ % 2014/ % 2015/ % 2016/ % 12
13 World Cottonseed Production (Figures in Lakh MT) Year 2013/ / / /17 Produ. % of TTL Produ. % of TTL Produ. % of TTL Produ. India % % % % China % % % % USA % % % % Pakistan % % % % Brazil % % % % Others % % % % Total % % % % % of TTL 13
14 Monthly Average Prices of Cottonseed Refined Oil and Soybean Refined oil Kandla and Spread Between Two Oils (Rs./10 kg.) 2010/ / / / / / /17 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Avg. CSRO SBOR / CSRO SBOR / CSRO SBOR / CSRO SBOR / CSRO SBOR / CSRO SBOR / CSRO SBOR /
15 Monthly Average Prices of Cottonseed Refined Oil and RBD Palmolein Kandla and Spread Between Two Oils (Rs./10 kg.) 2010/ / / / / / /17 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Avg. CSOR OLN / CSOR OLN / CSOR OLN / CSOR OLN / CSOR OLN / CSOR OLN / CSOR OLN /
16 High and Low Price of Cottonseed Washed Oil (Rs./10 kg.) Year High Price Low Price Difference 2010/ / / / / / /
17 Difference Between High and Low Prices During the year for Different Oils (Rs./10 kg.) Year Washed Cottonseed Oil Refined Soybean Oil Kandla Refined Soybean Oil Indore RBD Palmolein Kandla 2010/ / / / / / / Average of 7 Years
18 Price Outlook 1. Gujarat s estimated Consumption of all edible oils during 2016/17 was Lac MT. Out of this 4.50 Lac MT Refined Cottonseed Oil was consumed. Hence Gujarat s consumption of Refined Cottonseed Oil is about 27% among the consumption of all edible oils. 2. We have seen the lowest price of Rs.600 for Washed Cottonseed Oil on i.e. before India s duty hike. We may not see again such level during the current year. 3. Considering the historical difference between Low and High prices, recent India s duty hike, prices of other Oils, possibility of La Nina etc. the lowest price of Washed Cottonseed Oil during the current year may not be below Rs.630/40 from now onwards and by the end of the season we may see the highest price of Washed Cottonseed Oil at Rs.725 (or even more) in the second half of the season and perhaps in the month of July/August. 18
19 Contact Us :: Indore Office :: 401, Princess Empire, 12, Race Course Road, Indore, MP , India, Ph No.: , contact@ggnresearch.com Mr. Nirav Desai : Mobile No :: Rajkot Office :: 908, Alpha Plus, 150 Feet Ring Road, Near Raiya Telephone Exchange, Rajkot, Gujarat , India, Ph No.: , contact@ggnresearch.com Mr. Govindbhai Patel : Mobile No
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