World - Ethanol prices for the week ended 8 March, 2019

Transcription

1 Vol. 14, No. 39 March 11, 2019 World - Ethanol prices for the week ended 8 March, 2019 European Union (in EUR/hl pure alcohol, delivered at place, unless stated otherwise) Fuel Contract Spot Central Current months ago (9 March, 2018) North Current no quote 12 months ago (9 March, 2018) no quote East Current months ago (9 March, 2018) T1 T2 NW European ports fob Current USD months ago (9 March, 2018) USD Non-Fuel Contract Spot West Current (I) (I) (I) (I) (REN) (REN) (B) (B) 12 months ago (9 March, 2018) (I) (I) (I) (I) (REN) (REN) (B) (B) Central Current (I) (I) (I) (I) (REN) (REN) (B) (B) 12 months ago (9 March, 2018) (I) (I) (I) (I) (REN) (REN) (B) (B) South Current (I) (I) (I) (I) (B) (B) 12 months ago (9 March, 2018) (I) (I) (I) (I) (B) (B) North Current (I) (I) no quote (I) no quote (I) 12 months ago (9 March, 2018) (I) (I) no quote (I) no quote (I) East Current (I) (I) (I) no quote (I) (B) (B) 12 months ago (9 March, 2018) (I) (I) (I) (I) (B) (B) T1 T2 NW European ports fob Current no quote (99) no quote (99) no quote (REN) (REN) no quote (surfin) (surfin) 12 months ago (9 March, 2018) no quote (99) no quote (99) no quote (REN) (REN) no quote (surfin) (surfin) Non-European markets (USD/m3) Fuel Non-fuel Hydrous (EPA) Anhydrous (EPA) Grade B Brazil, fob Santos Chicago New York USA, Spot no quote no quote Anhydrous ENA Industrial Pakistan, fob Karachi (USD/tonne) B: beverage; I: industrial; P: pharmaceutical; REN: rectifié extra neutre; ENA: extra neutral alcohol; EPA: Environmental Protection Agency

2 70 Central Europe Ethanol Spot EUR per hl 70 West Europe Ethanol Spot EUR per hl Beverage 96 Industrial Beverage 96 Industrial European Market Comments Prices in the traditional market remained well supported as the high degree of uncertainty (Brexit, anti-dumping duty, EU sugar market) is prompting suppliers to take defensive positions and restrict forward sales. At the same time, the rally on the fuel ethanol market in the wake of the ECJ decision may set the tone for the upcoming quarterly contract negotiations. As reported earlier some producers are seeking price increases of up to EUR4 for Q2. Fuel ethanol prices rose strongly as the market seems to change its view on the S/D for H The re-start of the Ensus plant is now considered neutral as this volume is needed to cover a supply gap in the UK. At the same time the ECJ decision will shut out US competition at least until the European Commission rules on the future of the anti-dumping duties in May. World Ethanol - Port Statistics (tonnes) - week beginning Mar 11, 2019 Sailing Country Port Ship Name Status L D Origin on to ETA Brazil Aratu Castillo de Tebra B 4,300 Brazil Itaqui Linus P E 5,000 USA 12/03/2019 Santos Willard J S 22,561 Santos PTI Nile S 32,500 03/03/2019 WC USA 31/03/2019 Santos MTM Antwerp S 17,200 21/02/2019 Ulsan 24/03/2019 Santos Marie C S 19,455 12/02/2019 GC USA 05/03/2019 Santos Jane S S 31,000 05/02/2019 WC USA 04/03/2019 Suape Bow Santos E 11,800 15/03/2019 Guatemala Quetzal FG Rotterdam E 8,000 Quetzal MTM St Jean S 9,600 23/02/2019 UK 16/03/2019 Quetzal Lily PG S 5,000 11/02/2019 Italy 11/03/2019 Pakistan Karachi Lime Galaxy B 15,000 Karachi Chemroad Nova B 12,100 Karachi Chemocean Leo S 10,500 Singapore 16/03/2019 Karachi TRF Kristiansand S 11,509 Philippines 05/03/2019 Karachi CT Confidence S 5,950 12/02/2019 Arab Gulf Peru Ilo Fairchem Forte S 4,350 18/02/2019 ARA 22/03/2019 Paita Ivory Ray S 4,700 09/02/2019 ARA 21/03/2019 USA East Ardmore Cherokee S 23,650 19/01/2019 NW Europe 28/02/2019 Gulf Amelia B 8,000 Arab Gulf Gulf Caribe Rosa B 8,679 Spain Gulf Nordic Ace B 15,000 Colombia 08/03/2019 Gulf Chembulk New York S 6,600 21/02/2019 South Korea 31/03/2019 *only customs clearing, **ETBE; A: Anchored; B: Berthed; E: Expected; S: Sailed; L: Load; D: Discharge Page 2 of 5

3 March gained EUR35 at EUR , and il was up the same at EUR May was assessed in the low to high EUR550s. On the freight market there were enquiries for 5,000-10,000 m³ from Rotterdam to the Thames for mid-march, 6,000 m³ for North of France to Rotterdam for the same dates. In the US 17,500 m³ were fixed from the US East Coast to Canada on the Harbour Fashion for mid-march dates at USD42 per tonne. Europe - Non-fuel Ethanol Prices, Central Region, dlvd. Beverage Alcohol REN Industrial Alcohol 99 REN-beverage Year Month EUR/m³ $/m³ EUR/m³ $/m³ EUR/m³ $/m³ spread (EUR/m³) Brazilian Market Comments The ethanol market retreated somewhat despite Petrobras' decision to raise gasoline prices. The improving production outlook and the high inventory levels are cited as reasons. Asking prices for hydrous grades were up BRL30-50 at BRL2,250-2,280 per cubic metre (exw; taxes included), while anhydrous ethanol remained at BRL2,050-2,080. US Market Comments Ethanol future prices in Chicago ended weaker amid losses in the corn market. The March ethanol contract settled at USD1.299 per gallon, down from USD1.347 the prior week. The ethanol discount to gasoline rose to per gallon from United States - Fuel ethanol production in the week to March 1, 2019 averaged mln barrels per day (bpd), down from mln in the prior week and mln one year earlier, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Imports were nil for the 16th week in a row. Refiner and blender net input stood at 895,000 bpd, up from 882,000 in the preceding week and last year's 894,000. Based on the amount of motor gasoline supplied, the blending share averaged around 9.9% vol. in the latest week, against 9.8% one week earlier and 9.6% last year. Page 3 of 5

4 Stocks were up on the week, reaching mln barrels, the highest for almost one year, against mln previously. Inventory levels on the Gulf Coast rose to 4.7 mln barrels from 4.3 mln. USA Fuel Ethanol Stocks 24,000 23,000 22,000 1,000 barrels 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 EIA Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 United States - Fuel ethanol exports rose by 2% on the month reaching 506 mln litres in December 2018, official data show. This brought total exports in 2018 to bln litres against bln in The main destination was Brazil receiving 1.9 bln litres against 1.6 bln in The No. 2 was Canada with 1.2 bln litres, flat on the year. Sales to India fell to 533 mln litres from 659 mln in The strongest growth was recorded for South Korea which took close to 300 mln litres compared with 165 mln in the prior year. A ban on methanol in screenwash applications and changes in the formula for industrial alcohol were cited as a reason behind this increase. Exports to the Arab Gulf rose to 370 mln litres from 230 mln last year. USA Fuel Ethanol Exports ,000 cubic metres Jan Feb Mar May Jun Aug Sep Nov Dec Page 4 of 5

5 South Korea Ethanol imports in January 2019 amounted to 34.3 mln litres, a four-month low, against 38.4 mln in December and 28.5 mln last year, trade data show. Shipments from the US, the main origin, rose y/y to 15.4 mln litres from 9.1 mln, raising their share to 45% from 32%. Another key origin so far in 2019 was Pakistan (7.9 mln litres vs. 5.0 mln), with the share jumping to 23% from 17%. The import matrix also included strong growth in arrivals from Brazil (7.6 mln litres vs nil), while there were significantly lower volumes from Australia (0.2 mln vs 7.5 mln). Imports in Jan/Dec 2018 totalled mln litres, up from mln one year earlier and a record high. Exports rose to 51.3 mln litres, another all-time high, from 30.4 mln. South Korea - Shares in Ethanol Imports 100% 90% 80% 70% Brazil Others Australia Pakistan United States 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cum Cum Page 5 of 5

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