World - Ethanol prices for the week ended 10 February, 2017

Transcription

1 Vol. 12, No. 36 February 13, 2017 World - Ethanol prices for the week ended 10 February, 2017 European Union (in EUR/hl pure alcohol, delivered at place, unless stated otherwise) Fuel Contract Spot Central Current months ago (12 February, 2016) North Current no quote 12 months ago (12 February, 2016) no quote East Current months ago (12 February, 2016) T1 T2 NW European ports fob Current USD months ago (12 February, 2016) USD Non-Fuel Contract Spot West Current (I) (I) (I) (I) (REN) (REN) (B) (B) 12 months ago (12 February, 2016) (I) (I) (I) (I) (REN) (REN) (B) (B) Central Current (I) (I) (I) (I) (REN) (REN) (B) (B) 12 months ago (12 February, 2016) (I) (I) (I) (I) (REN) (REN) (B) (B) South Current (I) (I) (I) (I) (B) (B) 12 months ago (12 February, 2016) (I) (I) (I) (I) (B) (B) North Current (I) (I) no quote (I) no quote (I) 12 months ago (12 February, 2016) (I) (I) no quote (I) no quote (I) East Current (I) (I) (I) (I) (B) (B) 12 months ago (12 February, 2016) (I) (I) (I) (I) (B) (B) T1 T2 NW European ports fob Current no quote (99) no quote (99) no quote (REN) (REN) no quote (surfin) (surfin) 12 months ago (12 February, 2016) no quote (99) no quote (99) no quote (REN) (REN) no quote (surfin) (surfin) Non-European markets (USD/m3) Fuel Non-fuel Hydrous (EPA) Anhydrous (EPA) Grade B Brazil, fob Santos Chicago New York USA, Spot Anhydrous ENA Industrial Pakistan, fob Karachi (USD/tonne) B: beverage; I: industrial; P: pharmaceutical; REN: rectifié extra neutre; ENA: extra neutral alcohol; EPA: Environmental Protection Agency

2 European Market Comments Prices in the traditional market were unchanged. The main talking point was a four-week force majeure reportedly announced by Ineos. While the company could not be reached for comment, the FM was confirmed by four independent sources. Even though there was no immediate impact on prices, upward pressure cannot be ruled out going forward as the market is continued to be surprised by the ongoing strength in the fuel market. In the physical market for fuel ethanol front-month February rose by EUR30-40 to end at EUR per m 3. March gained EUR35-45 to EUR Q2 was up EUR10-15 to EUR while Q3 was up EUR5 at EUR500. Europe - Non-fuel Ethanol Prices, Central Region, dlvd. Beverage Alcohol REN Industrial Alcohol 99 REN-beverage Year Month EUR/m³ $/m³ EUR/m³ $/m³ EUR/m³ $/m³ spread (EUR/m³) Freight sources told F.O. Licht that recent price increases for fuel grades on the Rotterdam market have boosted overseas shipping interest for ethanol. Reportedly, a 2.5 mln litre ethanol cargo was fixed ex US Gulf on the vessel Njord Clear for late January. At the same time, there was an enquiry for up to 9 mln litres of fuel grades for Guatemala/ARA for late February/mid-March. Meanwhile, some vessels are scheduled for arrival in Europe, with predominantly REN product due to be loaded in Quetzal (Guatemala) and industrial grades in Karachi (Pakistan). From the intra-eu market, ethanol enquiries for 6 mln litres from northern France to Grangemouth, United Kingdom from early February were reported, as well as for up to 7.5 mln for ARA/Thames (UK) and for 4 mln for from southern to northern France, both for mid-february. Additionally, there was shipping interest for up to 6 mln litres from northern Spain to the UK, ARA or France (Med) for late February/early March. Page 2 of 5

3 European Market Fundamentals Germany - The future of biofuel quotas in Germany has pitted the Ministries for Economic Affairs (BMWi) and Agriculture (BMEL) against the Environment Ministry (BMU). BMU has proposed a 5.0% cal. cap for crop-based biofuels for 2020 (below the 7.0% in the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED)) as well as approving the use of co-processed plant oils under the Fuel Quality Directive (currently banned) up to Additionally, a minimum quota for advanced biofuels at 0.05% has been proposed starting in This is to rise to 0.1% in 2021, 0.2% in 2023 and 0.5% in In contrast to that, BMWi and BMEL are is in favour of maintaining the 7.0% cap in the RED. BMWi has proposed to introduce a 0.5% advanced biofuels quota from 2018 (on top of the RED's cap). BMWi also sees no problems with the use of co-processed vegetable oils under the quota as the use of crop-based biofuels is limited. As long as the three ministries do not achieve a compromise the cabinet will not take any decision. Some say that the whole process may be delayed until after the general election in September Brazilian Market Comments Prices on the spot market ended lower as ample supplies (both domestic and international) met with limited demand. Anhydrous fell BRL40 to around BRL2,030-2,050 per m 3 (exw, taxes included) while offers for hydrous ethanol declined to BRL2,090-2,120 from BRL2,130-2,150. While stocks are being drawn down, as is normal for the inter-crop season, the influx of imported material is reported to be steady and this is likely to keep the market well supplied. Demand is unlikely to recover as hydrous ethanol remains uncompetitive at the pump. Brazil - Ethanol imports in January 2017 rose to the highest level since December 2011 as high local prices opened the arbitrage with the US. Around 173 mln litres came in, up from 141 mln in December and 29 mln one year earlier. This brought the Apr/Jan total to 861 mln litres, up from 301 mln for the corresponding 2015/16 period. Virtually all ethanol imports came from the US. Exports in January reached a four-month high. The increase came after exceptionally weak volumes in the prior month, following a lack of competitiveness of Brazilian product on the world market. Exports totalled mln litres, against 70.4 mln in December and mln one year earlier. In January, around 84 mln litres went to the US, up from 38 mln in November and 24 mln one year earlier. Additionally, 18 mln litres went to Japan, after nil in November. Exports to South Korea fell to 2.0 mln litres from 28 mln in the preceding month. This brought the Apr/Jan total to bln litres, down 24% on the year, of which 647 mln (775 mln) to the US, 391 mln (373 mln) to South Korea and 64 mln (42 mln) to Japan. Declines were on the cards for exports to the European Union (20 mln litres vs 100 mln), India (44 mln vs 92 mln), Saudi Arabia (10 mln vs 33 mln). In 2015/16, around 415 mln litres were imported, while the export total was bln. Page 3 of 5

4 Brazil Ethanol Imports / / Mln litres Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Licht Interactive Data US Market Comments Ethanol prices on CBOT recovered in the period under review despite another rise in stocks. Traders cited strong support from the corn and energy markets. Ethanol for March delivery rose to $1.601 per gallon from $1.527 last week. Supplies look plentiful following a string of weekly production records and this is effectively limiting the upside potential. At the same time good demand is noted in the market. On the spot market prices also settled considerably higher with New York Harbour barges ending in the high $1.60s per gallon against the low-to-mid $1.50s last week. Gulf Coast locations saw prices in the low-to-mid $1.60s against the low $1.50s while the Midwest ended in the high $1.50s, up from the high $1.40s. Finally, West Coast material was assessed in the high $1.70s against the high $1.50s. United States - Fuel ethanol production in the week to February 3, 2017 averaged mln barrels per day (bpd), the most recent data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show. This was down 6,000 bpd on the all-time high in the prior week. Imports were nil for the 24th consecutive week. Refiner and blender net input reached a six-week high of 875,000 bpd vs 837,000 in the last week of January and 858,000 one year earlier. The EIA data imply an average blending share of 9.8% vol., against 10.1% in late January and 9.4% a year ago. Stocks rose for the fifth consecutive week to 22.1 mln barrels, up from 21.9 mln. This is the highest level since late April. Page 4 of 5

5 1,100 USA - Weekly Fuel Ethanol Production in 1,000 bpd 1,050 1, EIA Asian Market Comments Thailand - The delayed start of the sugarcane harvest has prompted fuel ethanol stocks to drop to critical levels. According to official numbers, inventories at the end of November were 21 mln litres, equivalent to just five days of consumption. This compares with 14 days in November Good demand for fuel ethanol by motorists as well as the delayed and slow start of the 2016/17 sugar season have contributed to the critical situation. In order to compensate for the lack of local molasses supplies distillers have imported around 85,000 tonnes between September and December. Thailand Fuel Ethanol Stocks mln litres Page 5 of 5

6 Available from F.O. Licht Editorial Am Mühlengraben Ratzeburg P.O. Box 1220 Germany Editor: Dr. Christoph Berg Claus Keller Phone: +49 (0) Fax: +49 (0) General Enquiries Tel: +44 (0) or (US) Toll Free: Online Access Tel: +44 (0) Subscriptions Christchurch Court Newgate Street London EC1A 7AZ, UK Phone: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Marketing: Catherine Teahan F.O. Licht Online ISSN Agra Informa Ltd. Conditions of sale 1. All rights reserved; no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the Publisher. Photocopying License: Agra Informa Ltd does not participate in a copying agreement with any Copyright Licensing Agency. Photocopying without permission is illegal. Contact the Marketing Department to obtain a photocopying license. 2. All abstracting of the content for republication and sale must have prior permission from the Publisher. 3. The publication must not be circulated outside the staff who work at the address to which it is sent, without prior agreement with the Publisher. Additional subscriptions: Additional copies, online passwords and site licences are available on request. Please contact the marketing department on Phone: +44 (0) or Fax: +44 (0) marketing@agra-net.com World Ethanol Price Report is published by F.O. Licht, a division of Informa Agra Ltd., Christchurch Court, Newgate Street, London, EC1A 7AZ, UK an informa business SUGAR AND ETHANOL MARKETS OUTLOOK TO 2025 This comprehensive report provides a detailed outlook for the world sugar and ethanol markets from now to 2025, with copious statistics and charts throughout, including fuel ethanol standards. Countries and territories fully covered include the EU, Russia, Brazil, the US, Canada, Mexico, Asia, Latin America, Africa, and Australia. The report goes on to describe in rich detail the varied corporate strategies adopted for sugar and ethanol. This is followed by an overview of the prospects and challenges ahead for the development and commercialisation of cellulosic ethanol and other advanced biofuels in the US, Europe, Brazil, and China. Also fully surveyed are the key global beverage and industrial ethanol markets. OUTLOOK FOR THE WORLD COFFEE MARKET A one-off special report on production, consumption, trade, and industry developments and challenges in the world arabica and robusta coffee markets. reports@agra-net.com for more info WORLD MOLASSES & FEED INGREDIENTS REPORT Reporting, analysis and statistics on molasses and special feed ingredients, including molasses and beet pulp, citrus pulp, corn gluten feed and meal, tapioca and DDGS. Prices and trade statistics plus regular estimates of world molasses production. 24 issues online. PLUS Licht Interactive Data INTERNATIONAL SUGAR & SWEETENER REPORT Reports on world sugar and sweetener market prices, trade, production, processing, consumption, stocks, company news, plus regular sugar balance and production estimates. 36 issues plus daily sugar market report online. PLUS Licht Interactive Data INTERNATIONAL COFFEE REPORT Reports on world prices, markets, trade, production, stocks and consumption, plus regular estimates of coffee production and the world coffee balance. 24 issues plus daily coffee market report online. PLUS Licht Interactive Data WORLD GRAIN MARKETS REPORT Detailed trade statistics and world production estimates for the global grain industry: soft wheat, durum wheat, barley, maize/corn, rye, oats, sorghum, millet and buckwheat. PLUS Licht Interactive Data WORLD ETHANOL & BIOFUELS REPORT News, analysis and statistics on fuel ethanol, biodiesel, industrial and beverage alcohol. Prices and trade statistics plus regular estimates of world ethanol and biodiesel production. 24 issues plus daily online news. PLUS Licht Interactive Data WORLD ETHANOL PRICE REPORT Contract and spot prices for fuel, beverage, industrial and pharmaceutical grades as well as concise market comment for all major ethanol producing countries worldwide. Weekly by e- mail. PLUS F.O. Licht s Ask the Analyst Service WORLD BIODIESEL PRICE REPORT Biodiesel, glycerine and feedstock prices for Europe, the Americas and Asia and market comment from F.O. Licht analysts. Weekly by . PLUS F.O. Licht s Ask the Analyst Service LICHT INTERACTIVE DATA Access and download the latest data that affect your business whenever you need in just two simple clicks. Including trade statistics, production/consumption and price data, balances for over 180 countries and over 10 years. Also included is a Plants & Projects section with worldwide production capacities for the products of your interest. Covers Ethanol, Sugar, Grains, Coffee, Molasses & Feed Ingredients and Renewable Chemicals