CHAPTER 12. The Knik Arm Crossing Project

Transcription

1 Chpter 12. The Knik Arm Crossing Project 3 CHAPTER 12. The Knik Arm Crossing Project Introduction This Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln (LRTP) is mended to include n dditionl chpter on the Knik Arm Crossing project. As noted in the previous chpters, the 2025 Anchorge Bowl LRTP endorsed the completion of the Knik Arm Crossing environmentl nd engineering studies, but it stopped short of including the Knik Arm Crossing project s prt of the plnned rodwy network, prtly becuse trnsporttion policy mkers wnted to mke their decision bsed on the environmentl impct of the project. Environmentl impct informtion becme vilble with the relese of the Knik Arm Crossing Drft Environmentl Impct Sttement nd Drft Section 4(f) Evlution (DEIS, prepred by the Knik Arm Bridge nd Toll Authority [KABATA]) in September A public review of the Knik Arm Crossing Amendment to the Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln ws initited shortly therefter. This mendment includes the following ctions: Amend the LRTP to include the Knik Arm Crossing project s regionlly significnt project Extend the plnning horizon of the Anchorge Bowl LRTP to 2027 Support the designtion of the project lignment s prt of the Ntionl Highwy System (NHS) nd updte the Officil Streets nd Highwys Pln to reflect such designtion Adopt the regionl ir qulity conformity determintion on the project in ccordnce with the Clen Air Act These steps re required by federl lw (Title 23, Prt 134, of U.S. Code) for ll projects considered regionlly significnt. Bckground The Alsk Legislture estblished KABATA in 2003 s public corportion nd n instrumentlity of the Stte of Alsk within the Alsk Deprtment of Trnsporttion nd Public Fcilities (DOT&PF). The specific mission of KABATA is to develop, stimulte, nd dvnce the economic welfre of the stte nd further the development of public trnsporttion systems in the vicinity of the Upper Cook Inlet with construction of bridge to spn Knik Arm nd connect the Municiplity of Anchorge (MOA) nd the Mt-Su Borough (Alsk Sttute ). Project Description The Knik Arm Crossing project is rodwy nd bridge crossing of Knik Arm connecting the Municiplity of Anchorge (MOA) nd the Mtnusk-Susitn Borough (Mt-Su), s shown in Figure The totl length of the project from the intersection of Point McKenzie nd Burm rods to the A-C Couplet nd Ingr-Gmbell Couplet is pproximtely 19 miles. The preferred lterntive ssumes construction of n 8,200-foot, piersupported bridge with cusewy pproches tht extend 2,000 feet from the western shore nd 3,300 feet from the estern shore. The project would be phse-constructed, with n initil minimum two-lne bridge nd connection to the A-C Couplet in Phse 1 nd n expnsion of the bridge to four lnes nd connection to the Ingr-Gmbell Couplet constructed in Phse 2. The project is clssified s rurl principl rteril in the Mt-Su nd cross Knik Arm, trnsitioning to n urbn principl rteril in Anchorge in the vicinity of the Port of Anchorge (POA). The following pge describes in more detil the prt of the project within the MOA nd Anchorge Metropolitn Are Solutions (AMATS) LRTP boundry. ANC/

2 4 Anchorge Bowl 2027 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln Figure Knik Arm Crossing Project Northern Access Source: HDR Alsk, Inc. In Anchorge, the project follows the Anchorge shoreline nd western perimeter of Elmendorf Air Force Bse t the bottom of the bluff to Cirn Point, nd then continues south, closely following the nturl curvture of the shoreline. The project includes cut-nd-cover tunnel under Government Hill, long either Degn Street- or Erickson Streetre lignment. Initil construction would include connection to the existing A-C Couplet. Becuse of the impct of the bridge trffic on downtown streets, work on the design of the connection to new viduct (elevted bridge) cross the Ship Creek ril yrd to connect with the Ingr-Gmbell Couplet should begin s soon s possible fter the bridge is opened. Figures 12-2 nd 12-3 depict the Knik Arm Crossing in more detil. Neighborhood Mitigtion The Government Hill Community Council s well s other neighborhood community councils, such s Downtown, South Addition, nd Firview, would be directly ffected by the proposed Knik Arm Crossing, given the current lignment lterntives. The project currently is in the environmentl phse of development. For purposes of the LRTP, it is pproprite to provide guidnce bout the chrcter of the project nd expecttions of how the project would be integrted into neighborhoods. An exmple of this guidnce ppers in the lnguge dopted for cut-nd-cover segments of the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy connection. (See pges 115 to 117 of the Anchorge Bowl 2025 LRTP.) Becuse of the potentilly dverse effects of Phse 1 trffic from the Knik Arm Crossing on the revitliztion of ffected neighborhoods, the design for the Anchorge side of the bridge must include dequte mitigtion to fcilitte the efficient, sfe, nd neighborhood-pproprite incorportion of bridge trffic through Downtown nd onto rods tht cn hndle the nticipted increse in trffic. Design considertions would include mesures to reduce the impct of the Knik Arm Crossing trffic from Government Hill to Downtown, nd would provide improved pedestrin connectivity long the A-C Couplet up to 6th Avenue. The connection of the Knik Arm Crossing to the A-C Couplet nd ultimtely the Ingr-Gmbell extension in concept would include the use of existing topogrphy to trench nd cover n expresswy-type rodwy on n lignment designed to serve through trips nd reduce trffic on neighborhood streets. These components would be ccomplished while incorporting improved prks nd pedestrin connections to benefit the Government Hill neighborhood, including tril connections joining Downtown, Ship Creek, nd Government Hill. Unique nd innovtive community nd streetscpe enhncements would be required s prt of the Knik Arm Crossing project s it trvels through Government Hill. For exmple, spn over the depressed expresswy could be used to reestblish neighborhood connectivity nd minimize noise nd ir qulity impcts to the neighborhood. The project would provide Government Hill with blnce of locl rod, tril, nd pedestrin fcilities, nd would discourge the use of locl rods by through trffic tht might cut through the neighborhood. The project would not result in trditionl freewy through neighborhood tht cretes brrier nd seprtion of the neighborhood. The gol is for Government Hill nd the project sponsors to use the opportunity to implement welldesigned mitigtion projects. Such mitigtion projects would be developed in close coopertion ANC/

3 Chpter 12. The Knik Arm Crossing Project 5 Figure Degn Alterntive Figure Degn Alterntive Key fetures of the Degn Alterntive (Figure 12-2). Phse 1 includes four-lne rodwy (two-lnes in ech direction), cutnd-cover tunnel under Degn Street, nd connection to the A-C Couplet. Phse 2, which is bsiclly the sme for both lterntives, includes on nd off rmps nd n dditionl connection to the Ingr-Gmbell Couplet through new viduct over the Ship Creek re. Key fetures of the Erickson Alterntive (Figure 12-3). Phse 1 includes four-lne rodwy (two-lnes in ech direction), on nd off rmps north of Government Hill, tunnel under Erickson Street, nd connection to the A-C Couplet. Legend Source: HDR Alsk, Inc. Source: HDR Alsk, Inc. ANC/

4 6 Anchorge Bowl 2027 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln with the neighborhood. They would use best prctices nd Context-Sensitive Design pproch to enhnce nd revitlize the Government Hill community with design tht fits within the chrcter of this unique nd historic neighborhood. Figure Initil Construction Funding Sources Funding According to the conceptul finncil pln prepred by KABATA, the Knik Arm Crossing project would hve no effect on the bility to finnce or implement the other LRTP projects discussed in the 2025 Anchorge Bowl LRTP. In other words, the project would not require ny future federl or stte funding for construction, opertions nd mintennce, or future cpcity requirements, beyond wht the Alsk Legislture hs lredy pproprited. The Alsk Legislture pproprited $93.6 million of the $232 million of federl-id highwy funds originlly ermrked by the Alsk Congressionl delegtion for the Knik Arm Crossing in the SAFETEA-LU ( (Sfe, Accountble, Flexible, nd Efficient Trnsporttion Equity Act: A Legcy for Users) trnsporttion bill. The Alsk Legislture lso uthorized stte mtching funds of $9.3 million when it provided spending uthority for the federl funds. (See Figure 12-4.) KABATA ws estblished by the Alsk Legislture s toll uthority, nd the toll revenue generted by users is expected to py for most of the construction cost nd ll of the opertion nd mintennce expense. Tolls provide ongoing revenue, nd the potentil for tolls mens tht Note: All dollrs shown in millions. Source: KABATA KABATA cn borrow funds for construction. Money from toll collection would be used to py for operting nd mintining the crossing, the cost of collecting the tolls, nd generl nd dministrtive expenses of KABATA. Toll revenue would then lso be used to py principl nd interest on lons, provide returns to investors, nd fund investment in future expnsion. After initil construction, trffic levels re projected to provide dequte toll revenue to support the project bsed on work performed by Wilbur Smith Assocites, KABATA s trffic nd revenue consultnt. Federl plnning requirements for metropolitn res stipulte tht finncil pln demonstrte the consistency of proposed trnsporttion investments with vilble projected sources of revenue. The description of the Knik Arm Crossing project includes estimtes of costs tht would be required to implement the project s well s estimtes of existing nd plnned sources of funds vilble to py for the project. The sections tht follow present this informtion. ANC/

5 Chpter 12. The Knik Arm Crossing Project 7 Cost Estimte for Initil Construction Preliminry engineering estimtes (independently confirmed by Federl Highwy Administrtion cost estimte review) indicte project costs for initil construction through opening of round $530 million to $540 million (in 2005 dollrs). Initil construction includes improvements to existing rodwys nd development of connectors in the Mt-Su, the bridge nd pproches, rod below the bluff round Cirn Point nd behind the POA, nd tunnel under Government Hill, ultimtely connecting to the A-C Couplet. A toll plz nd lnes re lso included in the initil construction. Project cost informtion for the initil construction, including contingency costs, is included in Tble (Note: Cost estimtes for Mt-Su rod work re for illustrtive purposes only nd re not included s prt of the Anchorge LRTP rodwy project list.) Proposed Funding for Initil Construction The funding pckge to complete the initil construction of the project is nticipted to consist of pproximtely $408 million in toll revenuebcked finncing nd pproximtely $130 million in public investment, representing 76 percent nd 24 percent, respectively, of initil construction costs. The projected funding pckge for initil construction, including jurisdictionl lloctions between Anchorge nd the Mt-Su, is included in Tble The previous finncil nlysis conducted for the 2005 Anchorge Bowl LRTP showed tht the mount of estimted future revenues ws just brely sufficient to cover the cost of the rodwy projects recommended in the LRTP. Therefore, it is criticl to implementtion of the LRTP to seprte the funding for the Knik Arm Crossing project from the rest of the funding. In Tble Initil Construction Costs Costs ($ millions) Component Anchorge Mt-Su Totl Mt-Su rod work Toll plz nd lnes Toll bridge nd butments Cirn Point/below the bluff rod Government Hill cut-nd-cover tunnel Totl All costs re in 2005 dollrs. Source: KABATA Tble Initil Construction Funding Costs ($ millions) Component Anchorge Mt-Su Totl Federl NHS lloction Stte NHS mtch Stte Cpitl Improvement Grnt Ingr-Gmbell Reconnissnce Study Federl Cpitl Improvement Grnt b Public Funding Subtotl Sources bcked by toll revenue funding Totl All costs re in 2005 dollrs. b Grnt is pending. Assumes tht the grnt will be uthorized. Source: KABATA ANC/

6 Chpter 12. The Knik Arm Crossing Project 9 trffic demnd. Therefore, the finncil fesibility nlysis for the opertion nd mintennce of the Knik Arm Crossing ssumed tht no stte or federl funds would be used to mintin nd operte the fcilities owned by KABATA, including the bridge, the pproches, nd the toll fcilities. KABATA hs lso entered into Memorndum of Understnding with the Mt-Su nd DOT&PF to ssign the opertions nd mintennce of the rods on the Mt-Su side of the crossing to the DOT&PF under the NHS. Given the regionl significnce of the project, it is recommended tht the lndside connections linking the Knik Arm bridge to the existing Anchorge rod network, including the future Ingr-Gmbell connection be listed s prt of the NHS. As result of this designtion, the DOT&PF would be responsible for the mintennce of these fcilities. Conclusions To incorporte finncil constrint for the Knik Arm Crossing into the currently finncilly constrined LRTP, it is necessry to impose the following condition: No dditionl stte funds nd no dditionl federl trnsporttion funds beyond those currently uthorized, s shown in Tbles 12-2 nd 12-4, would be used to finnce the project, including both initil construction nd future expnsion costs, s identified in Tbles 12-1 nd Under this finncil constrint, the funding for the mendment would no longer be vlid (vilble) if dditionl stte or federl trnsporttion money is needed for the Knik Arm Crossing nd the following conditions occur: (1) funding reduces the SAFETEA-LU formul funds or other flexible funds ssumed s prt of project funding (shown in Tbles 12-2 nd 12-4) nd (2) the needed funding is not vilble becuse it is plnned for use on other LRTP projects. Federl funding sources, such s lon progrms, grnts, tolls, nd concessions, which re outside the funding ssumed for existing LRTP projects, would not require n mendment to the LRTP, but these funding sources would be processed through the ppropritions process for the Sttewide Trnsporttion Improvement Progrm (STIP) nd the Trnsporttion Improvement Progrm (TIP). If stte or federl funds re proposed to be dded to the Knik Arm Crossing project nd those funds re lso needed to show finncil constrint for other LRTP projects, n mendment would be required to ressess nd demonstrte finncil constrint for ll projects in the LRTP. Popultion nd Employment Growth As Tble 12-5 reports, the Knik Arm Crossing project is expected to hve little effect on the overll regionl growth in terms of popultion nd employment. By providing ccess to lrge supply of vcnt lnd in the Mt-Su, however, the Knik Arm Crossing would hve n impct on the reltive shre of popultion, households, nd jobs growth between the MOA nd the Mt-Su. The impct of the bridge (on popultion nd employment) would be slow t first, but would ccelerte s the supporting infrstructure (rods, schools, nd utilities) is developed. As result of completion of the proposed bridge, the MOA is projected to lose Tble Projected 2027 Popultion, Households, nd Employment Without Knik Arm Crossing Project With Knik Arm Crossing Project Are Popultion Households Jobs Popultion Households Jobs Totl Anchorge re 352, , , , , ,200 Totl Mt-Su re 171,600 62,500 45, ,500 67,600 50,200 Totl Region 523, , , , , ,400 Source: Memorndum on the Economic nd Demogrphic Impcts of Knik Arm Bridge, University of Alsk Anchorge, Institute of Socil nd Economic Reserch, September ANC/

7 8 Anchorge Bowl 2027 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln other words, no funds beyond the mount of federl nd stte money lredy llocted (Tble 12-2) should be diverted to the Knik Arm Crossing. Cost Estimtes for Future Expnsion Trffic forecst nd cpcity nlysis (for which the results discussed below re in 2005 dollrs) indictes the need for n Ingr-Gmbell connection, the ddition of lne to the bridge superstructure, nd Mt-Su rod improvements t some point in the future. Totl nticipted future expnsion costs re projected t $392 million bsed on preliminry engineering estimtes. The Ingr-Gmbell connection is estimted to cost $219 million, nd the bridge deck lne ddition is estimted to cost $130 million. The Mt-Su rod upgrdes re estimted t $43 million, but re not expected to be required within the LRTP plnning horizon of Nevertheless, the finncil fesibility model used by KABATA demonstrtes surplus toll revenues vilble would be sufficient to py for the Mt-Su rod improvements. Projected cost informtion for expected future expnsion requirements is provided in Tble Proposed Funding for Future Expnsion The KABATA finncil fesibility model shows tht ll potentil future expnsion requirements cn be pid for from combintion of ccumulted surplus toll revenues nd toll revenue-bcked finncing if these dditionl improvements re completed in However, whether sufficient toll Tble Future Expnsion Costs Costs ($ millions) Component Anchorge Mt-Su Totl Mt-Su rod upgrdes Bridge deck lne ddition Ingr-Gmbell connector Totl All costs re in 2005 dollrs. Source: KABATA Tble Future Expnsion Funding Costs ($ millions) Component Anchorge Mt-Su Totl AMATS LRTP (pre-existing) b Sources bcked by toll revenue funding Totl All costs re in 2005 dollrs. b This funding is plnned s prt of the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy connection. Source: KABATA funds would be vilble to finnce the Ingr- Project Opertions nd Mintennce Gmbell connection if it ws needed erlier hs not In modeling the finncil fesibility of the been nlyzed. Tble 12-4 shows jurisdictionl project, KABATA ssumed tht toll revenues would lloction of nticipted funding sources between first be used to py for operting nd mintining Anchorge nd the Mt-Su in 2005 dollrs for ll the crossing, the cost of collecting the tolls, nd nticipted future expnsion requirements, generl nd dministrtive expenses of KABATA. including the Mt-Su rod upgrdes, which re Any remining revenues would then be used for included for illustrtive purposes only. debt service, returns to privte equity, nd investment in future expnsion to serve growing ANC/

8 10 Anchorge Bowl 2027 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln 4,900 households (or 12,900 people) nd 5,800 jobs to the Mt-Su tht it would otherwise be expected to cpture (by 2027). In its Memorndum on the Economic nd Demogrphic Impcts of Knik Arm Bridge (September 2005), the University of Alsk Anchorge, Institute of Socil nd Economic Reserch, listed the following ssumptions bout the economic effects of the bridge tht might influence trnsporttion ptterns in the region: A bridge results in modest shift in bsic sector ctivity from the MOA to the Point McKenzie region of the Mt-Su. The sectors most likely to be ffected re wrehousing nd other businesses tht require lrge mounts of lnd. Contributing to the modest level of impct initilly is the possibility tht some workers t these jobs might commute from Anchorge. During the longer term, modest shift in some other bsic sector jobs to the Mt-Su, rther thn the MOA, would be expected. Exmples re jobs in tourism nd recretion. Growth in the other bsic industries in the Mt- Su, including mining nd timber, would not be significntly ffected by the bridge. The bridge would increse the ttrctiveness of commuting by workers living in the Mt-Su but working in the MOA. However, the increse would be limited by the number of MOA jobs tht py enough to support the cost of commute. Most Anchorge workers in jobs with wge high enough to consider commuting would continue to choose not to commute. The lrgest source of new commuters would result from seprtions. In other words, newly hired workers who re new to the region would be the most likely to choose to commute. Alredy employed workers would be less likely to consider move. The growth of support jobs in the Mt-Su does not significntly increse the number of trips from the Anchorge mrket. (Only limited number of MOA residents would mke shopping trips to the Mt-Su.) Popultion growth in the Mt-Su would be constrined by the number of jobs there nd the number of residents who commute to jobs outside the Mt-Su (primrily Anchorge). Incresed ccess to developble lnd in the Mt-Su would not result in n bsolute reduction in popultion in Anchorge. Some of the projected increse in popultion in the Greter Anchorge- Mt-Su region would choose to live in Anchorge. Tble Projected 2030 Regionl Trvel Impcts Alterntive Vehicle Miles Trveled Trnsporttion Impcts of the Knik Arm Crossing on the Regionl nd Locl Trnsporttion System The Knik Arm bridge would hve reltively modest impct on regionl trvel ptterns nd behvior. According to the informtion prepred by KABATA for this project, totl vehicle miles trveled (VMT) nd vehicle hours trveled (VHT) would increse with implementtion of this project becuse of more trvel occurring in the Mt-Su, reflecting longer trips necessitted by the more dispersed, rurl development ptterns. By the yer 2030, the totl VMT would increse by 480,513 vehicle miles or 4.8 percent, becuse of the bridge construction. A similr effect would be n increse in the mount of time spent in crs, from 250,000 vehicle hours without the bridge to 260,000 hours with the bridge, or 4 percent (Tble 12-6). The effect of the bridge on the development of other trnsporttion options is probbly negtive Vehicle Hours Trveled Totl Fuel Use (gllons) No ction lterntive 9,987, , ,826 Knik Arm Crossing Erickson Alterntive b 10,468, , ,595 Fuel consumption estimtes were bsed on 19.4 miles per gllon, the U.S. Environmentl Protection Agency fleet verge for b Results for the Degn Alterntive re virtully the sme s the Erickson Alterntive. Source: HDR Alsk, Inc. ANC/

9 Chpter 12. The Knik Arm Crossing Project 11 overll. Assuming tht the lnd development pttern on the Mt-Su side of the bridge would be low density (the pprent ssumption of the DEIS), estblishment of vible bus system would be unlikely. The effect on crpooling nd vnpooling rtes is less cler-cut. These types of rideshring depend in prt on the length of the trip nd the ese of finding sufficient number of persons who shre the generl origin nd destintion. Low-density development ptterns tht my occur in the newly opened res of the Mt-Su would tend to discourge crpooling. On the other hnd, the cost of bridge tolls would tend to encourge rideshring. The impct of the bridge on the Anchorge trnsporttion system is more focused on prticulr MOA res. The regionl model estimtes prepred by HDR Alsk, Inc., predict tht bout 33,500 vehicles per dy would cross the Knik Arm bridge by the yer If this projection becomes relity, the vehicle volume would dd significnt mount of trffic to the MOA rodwy network. It is importnt to nlyze the effect of this trffic on the existing nd plnned Anchorge trnsporttion network in order to determine its impcts s well s the potentil need nd timing of rodwy improvements required to ccommodte the bridge trffic. According to the regionl model results, the opening of the bridge does not seem to hve significnt effect on the mount of trffic on the Glenn Highwy coming into Anchorge, which would remin bout the sme with or without the bridge. Becuse the primry impct of the bridge trffic is expected to be in downtown Anchorge, the nlysis focused on this re. The following three scenrios were developed nd nlyzed: Scenrio 1 The Knik Arm bridge with the Ingr-Gmbell connection in Anchorge s well s ll rodwy improvements recommended in the dopted AMATS 2025 LRTP. Scenrio 2 The Knik Arm bridge with n A-C Couplet rodwy connection but no Ingr-Gmbell connection; ll rodwy improvements recommended in the dopted AMATS 2025 LRTP re included. Scenrio 3 The Knik Arm bridge with only n A-C Couplet rodwy connection (no Ingr- Gmbell connection) nd ll 2025 LRTP improvements, except the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy connection. Scenrio 1 According to the DEIS report prepred by KABATA, the Ingr-Gmbell connection from Government Hill cross Ship Creek to 3rd Avenue will be needed by the yer 2023 to llevite trffic congestion on the existing A-C Viduct. Figure 12-5 (included t the end of this chpter) shows the distribution of trffic tht is projected to occur s result of Scenrio 1. Of the trffic coming over Ship Creek into Anchorge, 44 percent would be expected to trvel over the A-C Viduct nd 56 percent over the new Ingr-Gmbell connection. As result, the A-C Viduct in 2027 would still be hevily used, crrying bout 25,850 trips per dy (compred to little more thn 16,000 in 2005). Given the reltively rpid drop in trffic south of 6th Avenue, most of the bridge trffic on the A-C Couplet would be expected to be trveling to Downtown. The Ingr-Gmbell connection to the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy project mkes tht routing more efficient for trvelers coming from Port McKenzie with destintions to other prts of the Anchorge Bowl outside of Downtown. Therefore, it ppers tht the Ingr-Gmbell connection is n essentil improvement needed to relieve the trffic congestion in the downtown core (described in Scenrio 2). An nlysis conducted by HDR for the DEIS (see Tble 12-7) indictes tht the level of service for intersections in the downtown re would be t n cceptble level through 2030 under Scenrio 1 (Figure 12-6). Scenrio 2 Scenrio 2 explores the impct on the Anchorge rodwy network of the Knik Arm bridge without the Ingr-Gmbell connection over Ship Creek. In this scenrio, the only route connecting the Knik Arm bridge to the Anchorge Bowl is the existing A-C Viduct. Figure 12-7 shows n estimted 46,000 trips per dy using the A-C Viduct under this scenrio. This trffic volume would nerly double the mount of trffic in the downtown re long the A-C Couplet between 3rd nd 6th venues. More trffic from the bridge would lso pss through downtown streets through ANC/

10 12 Anchorge Bowl 2027 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln Tble Pek Hour Level of Service Intersection the A-C Couplet to destintions in the midtown re. Higher trffic volumes would lso occur in the downtown re between the A-C Couplet nd the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy corridor (formerly Ingr- Gmbell Couplet) s Mt-Su trvelers from the Port McKenzie re ttempt to connect to the freewy system to trvel to other prts of Anchorge. According to Figure 12 8, the estern prt of Downtown (between 3rd nd 6th venues) my experience n increse in congestion from the bridge opening. Scenrio 3 Scenrio 3 explores the impct of the Knik Arm bridge on the Anchorge trnsporttion network without either the Ingr-Gmbell connection over Ship Creek or the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy connection. The intent of this scenrio ws to Without Knik Arm Crossing A.M. pek P.M. pek With Knik Arm Crossing A.M. pek 3rd Avenue C Street B B B B 3rd Ave A Street B B B B Ocen Dock Rod Loop Rod B B B B 5th Avenue C Street B B B B 6th Avenue A Street B B B B 5th Avenue Gmbell Street B B B B 6th Avenue Ingr Street B B C C Source: HDR Alsk, Inc. P.M. pek exmine the interdependencies between the Knik Arm bridge nd the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy connection. Figure 12-9 shows tht without the Ingr Gmbell connection of the Knik Arm bridge project or the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy improvements, the A-C Couplet would be mong the highest volume rterils in the city, crrying more thn 55,000 vehicles per dy between 3rd Avenue (Downtown) nd Northern Lights Boulevrd (Midtown) by The A-C Couplet would crry bout the sme number of vehicles tht the Ingr-Gmbell Couplet crries tody. Figure shows n increse in congestion long the A-C Couplet, especilly during the pek periods. Prts of estern Downtown would lso crry significnt trffic volumes but less thn would be projected under Scenrio 2. Conclusion The Glenn-Sewrd Highwy connection project would hve, by fr, the most significnt impct on the reduction of trffic congestion in the Anchorge Bowl of ny project contined in the LRTP. Without it, lrge res of northestern nd centrl Anchorge will experience uncceptble level of congestion. The Glenn-Sewrd Highwy project lso hs very strong linkge to the proposed Knik Arm bridge project. Although mny vehicles crossing the Knik Arm bridge would be trveling to Downtown, most would be trveling to destintions scttered throughout the Anchorge Bowl. A direct connection from the Knik Arm bridge to the freewy system through new Ingr- Gmbell connection over Ship Creek would be needed for these bridge-relted trips. Without Knik Arm Ingr-Gmbell connection nd the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy improvements, the trffic volumes trversing Downtown long the A-C Couplet would double by Furthermore, HDR estimtes tht 12 percent of totl trips would be truck trips, which would further ffect Downtown. The totl 2027 trffic using the A-C Couplet under Scenrios 2 nd 3 (without the Ingr-Gmbell connection) is projected to be more thn 46,000 trips per dy, which would crete congestion problem in downtown Anchorge. The construction of the Ingr-Gmbell connection is expected to substntilly relieve this congestion. However, the Ingr-Gmbell connection would only mnge to shift the congestion to the Ingr-Gmbell Couplet ANC/

11 14 Anchorge Bowl 2027 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln Figure Scenrio Annul Averge Dily Trffic Figure Scenrio 1 Mximum 2027 PM Pek Level of Service Source: MOA Trffic Deprtment Source: MOA Trffic Deprtment ANC/

12 Chpter 12. The Knik Arm Crossing Project 13 without the construction of the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy connection. The question remins, when should the Ingr- Gmbell connection be built? To nswer this question, KABATA hs committed funding to begin the reconnissnce effort to nlyze this issue once funding for the bridge nd Anchorge lndside connection is imminent. Conditions The Knik Arm Crossing is dded to the Anchorge Bowl LRTP with the following conditions: A. (1) The required ir qulity conformity nlysis is completed, (2) the finncil detils of the bridge re solidified, nd (3) the finl environmentl impct sttement is relesed nd the comments from the MOA, Mt-Su, the Alsk Rilrod Corportion, nd the public hve been ddressed. B. No funding currently plnned for implementtion of the existing LRTP, beyond tht currently uthorized in Tbles 12-2 nd 12-4, will be used to support construction or mintennce of ny element of the Knik Arm Crossing. In ddition, no locl funds will be used for construction or mintennce of ny element of this project. C. A neighborhood mitigtion progrm, s described in this chpter, will be dopted. This progrm will protect the integrity of the Government Hill nd other ffected neighborhoods (using the best Context Sensitive Design prctices) with the objective of enhncing nd revitlizing these unique nd historic neighborhoods. D. No construction work will begin on the Anchorge lndside bridge pproches until (1) the complete funding pckge is secured for the bridge nd the Anchorge ccess connections nd (2) the project design hs been submitted for review through the estblished municipl design review process. E. Recognizing tht the Glenn-Sewrd Highwy connection project nd the Ingr-Gmbell connection cross Ship Creek re criticl complementry projects linked to the Knik Arm Crossing, it is understood tht, s prt of the Crossing project, KABATA will fund the design nd construction of the Ingr-Gmbell connection in mnner to permit its opening s erly s 2018 if needed. This process would require the reconnissnce/environmentl phse of the Ingr- Gmbell connection to strt in F. KABATA will fund the instlltion nd opertion of n ir qulity monitoring site to ssess impcts in the vicinity of where the Knik Arm bridge trffic will combine with other A/C Couplet trffic in downtown Anchorge. The monitoring project will begin in dvnce of the bridge completion to ssess before nd fter conditions for ir pollutnts of corse nd fine prticulte mtter nd crbon monoxide. Monitoring will occur 1 yer before nd 1 yer fter construction. ANC/

13 Chpter 12. The Knik Arm Crossing Project 15 Figure Scenrio Annul Averge Dily Trffic Figure Scenrio 2 Mximum 2027 PM Pek Level of Service Source: MOA Trffic Deprtment Source: MOA Trffic Deprtment ANC/

14 18 Anchorge Bowl 2027 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln ANC/

15 Additionl Revisions to the 2025 LRTP 17 Additionl Revisions to the Anchorge Bowl 2025 LRTP The following pges show the revisions to pges of the Anchorge Bowl 2025 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln. Blue text indictes revised or new text. Deleted text is shown in strikethrough font. (Smple strikethrough font.) ANC/

16 16 Anchorge Bowl 2027 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln Figure Scenrio Annul Averge Dily Trffic Figure Scenrio 3 Mximum 2027 PM Pek Level of Service Source: MOA Trffic Deprtment Source: MOA Trffic Deprtment ANC/

17 Chpter 6. Popultion nd Employment Growth 57 Tble 6-2. Projected Household Growth by Plnning Are, Plnning Are Household Growth Percentge of Totl Growth Centrl 5, Northest 7, Northwest 7, Southest 3, Southwest 4, Chugik-Egle River 8, Totl 35, Note: Chnges in growth distribution cused by the Knik Arm Crossing project re found in Chpter 12. A substntil mount of housing lso ws llocted to the redevelopment res identified in the Anchorge 2020 comprehensive pln. Residentil res in redevelopment res ner the three mjor employment res (Downtown, Midtown, nd the University-Medicl District) is predicted to ttrct more thn 3,120 new housing units, nd n dditionl 1,000 housing units re forecst within the Centrl Business District of Downtown (in n re representing only smll prt of the downtown redevelopment re identified in Anchorge 2020). Housing development nd incresed household densities long the four trnsit-supportive development corridors (Arctic, DeBrr, Spenrd/Jewel Lke, nd Lke Otis) is lso predicted. These corridors re expected to ttrct more thn 14,000 new housing units. Figure 6-7 illustrtes tht hlf of the employment growth from 2002 to 2025 is forecst to occur in the three mjor employment centers identified in Anchorge The lrgest mount of employment growth is llocted to Midtown, where more thn 9,840 new jobs re projected by 2025 (17 percent of the totl). Effects of this new development will result in more concentrted employment with densities closely mtching the densities in Downtown. The higher employment density, combined with more diversified mix of office nd retil uses, will help to encourge Considering the Knik Arm Crossing crpooling nd trnsit use in the midtown re, s well s to enhnce the ttrction of Midtown s n employment nd retil destintion. A lrge shre of the employment growth is projected to occur in the downtown redevelopment re, where the number of jobs is expected to increse by nerly 5,225 (13 percent of the totl), 3,345 of which re in the Centrl Business District. Employment in the University-Medicl District redevelopment re is expected to increse by nerly 3,310 jobs (7 percent of the totl). The projections shown in Tble 6-1 nd discussed in this chpter do not tke into ccount the potentil effects of Knik Arm bridge on regionl popultion nd employment distribution. During preprtion of the most recent ISER popultion nd employment projections, preliminry nlysis ws conducted to test the sensitivity of regionl popultion nd employment distribution to the opening of Knik Arm crossing in the yer Results indicte tht bridge would reduce the growth of the Anchorge popultion by bout 16,000, or 4 percent, by This shift would strt slowly nd increse in the lter yers of the plnning period, closer to Opening Knik Arm bridge likely would hve less effect on employment growth in Anchorge, with bout 6,000 jobs expected to go elsewhere in the region. It should be noted tht the chnge in growth rtes is very sensitive to the yer tht the bridge is opened. The nticipted dte is 2010; however, the dte is subject to mny vribles. Popultion nd employment chnges tht could result from the Knik Arm bridge hve been nlyzed s prt of the Environmentl Impct Sttement for the project. On the bsis of those findings, the Knik Arm Crossing project hs been mended to be included in the LRTP. Detils on the project cn be found in Chpter 12. ANC/

18 52 Anchorge Bowl 2025 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln Tble 6-1. Projections for 2025 Regionl Growth Are Forecst Numeric Chnge Popultion nd 35,910 new jobs by The rest of the region is expected to gin bout 27,400 new housing units nd only 13,710 new jobs by Regionl popultion growth through 2025 cn be seen in Figure 6-1. The Mt-Su Vlley will experience the most drmtic popultion growth Growth (%) Anchorge Bowl 237, ,330 65, Chugik-Egle River 31,540 58,870 27, Mt-Su Borough 65, ,600 60, Totl 334, , , Households Anchorge Bowl 84, ,060 28, Chugik-Egle River 10,580 18,680 8, Mt-Su Borough 22,800 42,100 19, Totl 118, ,840 55, Employment (includes self employed) Anchorge Bowl 150, ,570 35, Chugik-Egle River 3,980 7,190 3, Mt-Su Borough 13,700 24,200 10, Totl 168, ,960 49, Notes: Chnges in growth distribution cused by the Knik Arm Crossing project re found in Chpter 12. The specific dt for Chugik-Egle River nd the Anchorge Bowl were derived from totl MOA forecsts bsed on the 1993 Chugik-Egle River Comprehensive Pln. Militry bse housing nd popultion re included in the Anchorge Bowl figures. Source: ISER dt nd projections in Drft Lnd Use Forecst Report, Anchorge 2025 Household nd Employment Forecst nd Alloction for the 2004 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln, prepred by the MOA Trnsporttion Plnning Division in July (92 percent), followed by Chugik-Egle River (87 percent), nd the Anchorge Bowl (28 percent). Employment in both the Mt-Su Borough nd Chugik-Egle River is expected to consist lrgely of locl jobs to meet demnd of the growing locl popultions. In 2025, the Anchorge Bowl will remin the dominnt source of employment for the Southcentrl region. In the pst few decdes, the economy of the Mt-Su Borough hs become closely linked to the MOA economy. Tht connection relies hevily on residents commuting from the Mt-Su Borough to employment in Anchorge. Chugik-Egle River residents lso trvel to Anchorge for jobs. All commuters from the Mt-Su Borough nd Chugik- Egle River must use the Glenn Highwy to get into the Anchorge Bowl. The expected number of commuters will continue to increse, nd Figure 6-2 chrts the projected Glenn Highwy commuters from the Mt-Su Borough nd Egle River to employment sites in the Anchorge Bowl. MOA Employment by Industry Sector Estimting employment by industry sector is n importnt step in forecsting future trvel demnd. Ech industry sector hs chrcteristics relevnt to choices tht ffect fcility loction nd spce requirements nd re ffected by pplicble lnd use policies nd regultions. The Alsk Deprtment of Lbor recognizes 13 industry sectors: Helth Services Universities Schools Government Services Finnce, Insurnce, nd Rel Estte Retil Trde ANC/

19 100 Anchorge Bowl 2025 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln Westbound Pek Hour Trffic & Cpcity 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Knik River - Ekutn Rd Source: CH2M HILL Eklutn Rd - Mirror Lke Figure Mnging Demnd nd Avilble Cpcity on the Glenn Highwy, 2025 Morning Pek Hour Cpcity Mirror Lke - Voyles B lvd Voyles Blvd - N Birchwood Demnd N Birchwood - S Birchwood S. Birchwood - N Egle Rv I/C River provide opportunity for commuters there to use ril service lso. Service is ssumed to expnd 30 percent by 2015 nd 75 percent by Coordinting bus service in the Anchorge Bowl enbling trin commuters to get to destintion sites beyond wlking distnce from the ril terminl is ssumed to be vilble. Tble 7-11 summrizes estimted outcomes for commuter ril services between Wsill nd Anchorge between 2005 nd Ril service my N Egle Rv I/C - Artillery Rd Artillery Rd - Hilnd Rd Hilnd - Arctic Vlley Rd Arctic Vlley Rd - Muldoon Muldoon - Bonifce tke from 600 to 1,750 vehicle trips off the Glenn Highwy, mostly commuters in pek hours. Net public costs (subsidy) to support the estimted ril service rnge from $2.66 million to $4.87 million per yer (in 2004 dollrs). The subsidy works out to be lmost $10 per pssenger on the optimistic end nd more thn $18 per pssenger on the pessimistic end. For commuter ril service to be implemented, number of steps would be required. Foremost is determintion of funding responsibilities, mechnisms, nd sources. In prllel with the funding steps, cretion of n institutionl structure nd negotition of mngement, opertions, nd sponsorship greements mong the severl ffected prties is required. Other prerequisite ctivities include project development plnning; engineering, nd environmentl nlyses; opertions detiling; equipment procurement nd customiztion; sttion nd fcilities development; service specifictions; ptronge, pricing, mrketing, nd revenue projection refinements; connector trnsit service integrtion rrngements; nd relted multigovernment coordintion. Conclusions nd Approches for Enhncing Regionl Connections Clerly, mjor issues re relted to regionl connection fcilities. The rpid growth in the Mt- Su Borough nd Chugik-Egle River will put significnt strin on the Glenn Highwy in the bsence of other ctions. A Knik Arm crossing would relieve some trffic pressure on the Glenn Highwy, but mny unknowns still chrcterize the Knik Arm crossing proposl. Commuter ril implementtion could ssist in the Glenn Highwy corridor. See Tble And new regionl bus service could contribute. Its initition would require development of funding resources nd mechnisms, s well s mny of the sme development steps noted bove for commuter ril service. The solution to improving regionl connections lies in gretly improved trnsit service, spot improvements to relieve trffic bottlenecks, ANC/

20 Chpter 7. Meeting Future Trnsporttion Needs 99 Regionl Connections Rilrod trcks nd only two rod connections link Anchorge by lnd to the north nd south, serving freight distribution nd trvelers. Components of the Ntionl Highwy System, the Glenn Highwy nd Sewrd Highwy serve northbound nd southbound trvel, respectively. Mjor improvements on these two highwys re incorported in LRTP recommendtions (Chpter 8). Other key ccess rods connect these regionl highwys to both TSAIA nd the Port of Anchorge. The community is considering two other regionl connection concepts, including commuter ril service. Knik Arm Crossing Studies nd Implictions Only two rodwys currently link Anchorge to elsewhere, but plnning studies re in process for bridge cross the Knik Arm to the Mt-Su Borough. Currently the Knik Arm crossing project is in n environmentl nlysis phse; informtion bout its lignment, configurtion, components, costs, nd other fetures re not yet known. Criticl questions nd policy decisions will be ddressed fter more informtion hs been gthered. How would Knik Arm crossing ffect the lnd use nd growth ptterns envisioned by Anchorge 2020? How would it ffect the Anchorge housing mrket? Will broder urbn sprwl be encourged nd enbled by trnsporttion ccess to lrge expnse of undeveloped lnd? The mgnitude of trffic or impcts of Knik crossing trffic on the LRTP progrm cnnot be identified t this time. The potentil cost burden nd community impcts of supplementl projects needed to tie the crossing project into the Anchorge rod network lso cnnot be nticipted t this time. All of these topics need to be covered nd documented in the federlly mndted environmentl nlysis under wy. The LRTP endorses completion of environmentl nd engineering studies nd documenttion for the Knik Arm crossing concept. Informtion bout the lignment, configurtion, components, costs, funding, nd other fetures of the project cn then be used by the MOA nd AMATS to support future decisions. Regionl Public Trnsporttion Services The Glenn Highwy corridor links Anchorge with Chugik-Egle River nd the Mt-Su Borough. The only regionl public trnsporttion service operting regulrly between the Mt-Su Borough nd Anchorge is the MASCOT bus service. It offers two trips dy from the Mt-Su Borough. The Glenn Highwy corridor is unusul in tht there is no lterntive or bck-up route in cse of crshes or overcrowding. During commute hours, projected 2025 trvel demnd will exceed the existing corridor cpcity, unless remedies re implemented. Figure 7-33 shows the existing rod cpcity nd projected trffic demnd long the Glenn Highwy corridor from Eklutn Rod to Bonifce Rod. Trffic demnd on the Glenn Highwy corridor will exceed cpcity in 2025 from Mirror Lke to Bonifce Rod. Commuter Ril Services The Alsk Rilrod minline runs prllel to the Glenn Highwy from Wsill nd other communities, providing the prospect of commuter ril option for trvel into nd out of Anchorge. Fesibility of commuter ril service between the Anchorge Bowl nd the Mt-Su Borough hs been studied. (One nlysis is South Centrl Ril Network Commuter Study nd Opertion Pln, by Wilbur Smith nd Assocites et l., Jnury 2002.) Although there re dvoctes for implementtion of commuter ril service, the recent fesibility studies do not present compelling cse. Two studies conducted in 2000 produced rider commuter ril rider estimtes for 2005 of 152,000 to 190,000 nnul riders for weekdy service, or 600 to 750 riders per verge weekdy. For 2015, ril ptronge ws forecst t 230,000 nnul riders, equivlent to bout 900 riders per weekdy. Commuter ril pssenger estimtes were predicted on two morning trins from Wsill to Anchorge nd two trins from Anchorge to Wsill in the fternoon, plus limited off-pek service. Trvel by ril from Wsill to the Ship Creek Intermodl Terminl in Anchorge would require bout 1 hour. Sttions in Chugik-Egle ANC/

21 126 Anchorge Bowl 2025 Long-Rnge Trnsporttion Pln provide more direct ccess from the freewy to the irport. Another rod improvement, connection of Dowling nd Rspberry rods, will enhnce TSAIA ccess from the south. Port of Anchorge Access Improvements Truck ccess to nd egress from the Port of Anchorge re significntly improved by projects linking the Port of Anchorge to the Glenn nd Sewrd highwys. Ntionl Highwy System Continuity nd Improvements The LRTP mterilly improves Ntionl Highwy System connectivity nd design consistency through Anchorge. The Glenn Sewrd highwys connection closes long-stnding continuity gp nd estblishes limited-ccess corridor serving the entire MOA nd region. The Sewrd Highwy is upgrded to six lnes north of O Mlley Rod to ccommodte incresing demnd. Additionlly, system interchnge linking the Sewrd Highwy nd Minnesot Drive, further strengthens the Ntionl Highwy System connectivity. All of these projects improve ccess nd connections with the port nd irport intermodl terminls. Knik Arm Crossing The LRTP dopted in December 2005 endorsed completion of ongoing environmentl nd engineering studies for the Knik Arm crossing concept. These studies produced informtion bout the lignment, configurtion, components, costs, nd other fetures to support inclusion of the project in the LRTP. Bsed on completion of the necessry environmentl documents, the crossing hs been included in the LRTP by mendment. Detils of the project cn be found in Chpter 12 nd the published environmentl documents. Commuter Ril Services Commuter ril between the Mt-Su Borough nd the Anchorge Bowl is nother potentil trvel option. As recommended trnsit improvements re implemented, they will provide n efficient network for commuter ril trvelers to mke connections tht will enhnce the vibility of commuter ril. The LRTP endorses future studies of the fesibility nd funding of commuter ril service between the Mt-Su Borough nd Anchorge. Anchorge nd Mt-Su Borough Collbortion on Common Interests A convergence of physicl growth nd common interests is occurring between the MOA nd the Mt-Su Borough. The two jurisdictions together house the mjority of the popultion nd employment in the stte. Trvel interctions nd economic interest rgue for collbortion on number of fronts. As the urbn region continues to grow, pressure will mount for urbn infrstructure funding. Collbortion in regionl plnning nd unified voice on stte funding issues should be supported by both jurisdictions. Congestion (Mobility) Mngement The crux of our trnsporttion network congestion problem is coping with weekdy surges tht occur during AM nd PM weekdy commute hours. Congestion rises where there is more trffic thn there is corresponding rod cpcity. For most hours of the dy, our trnsporttion network cpcity is dequte nd trvel is reltively unrestricted. Alterntives to Building More Cpcity Adding rod nd trnsit cpcity cnnot be the sole strtegy for ddressing trnsporttion needs. Mngement strtegies cn complement cpcity expnsion projects nd offer other wys to mke trnsporttion more efficient, more flexible, nd less intrusive. They include optimizing the operting performnce of the trnsporttion network, creting more trvel options, crefully mnging rod work schedules to minimize trvel disruption, incresing opertions efficiency, nd mnging demnd to conserve nd influence trveler behvior. Collectively, these strtegies cn relieve stress on the vilble cpcity in pek commute hours nd moderte trvel impcts. Mnging the System Mngement nd opertion of our current trnsporttion system should be mde s efficient s possible. This step should be tken long with investments in new projects. Performnce metrics nd monitoring for trffic opertions nd trnsit to mke them s efficient s possible should be continuing function. ANC/

22 Chpter 8. Pln Recommendtions 113 Figure 8-1. Recommended Rod Projects Northwest Anchorge Spenrd Rod nd Fireweed Lne projects help crete neighborhood friendly commercil res. Enhncements to freight routes in the Ship Creek re improve freight movement ccess to nd from the Port of Anchorge. Minnesot Drive nd Tudor Rod interchnge nd Minnesot improvements lessen congestion in these key corridors nd trnsition freewy rodwy to mjor rteril rodwys. Knik Arm Crossing project, Ntionl Highwy System route connection north to the Mtnusk-Susitn Borough (Mt-Su), improves regionl trnsporttion infrstructure nd connectivity for the movement of people, freight, nd goods to, from, nd between Anchorge, the Mt-Su, nd Interior Alsk nd between regionl irports, ports, hospitls, nd fire, police, nd other entities supporting emergency response nd evcution. 810 Northest Anchorge The Glenn-Sewrd highwy connection effectively crries trffic from the Glenn Highwy to Downtown, Midtown, nd University-Medicl District re, removing trffic from locl streets. Lke Otis Prkwy improvements nd connection to the Glenn Highwy relieve congestion, improve pedestrin nd trnsit movement, nd sfely connect pedestrins to prks, trils, nd retil res. Tudor Rod Congestion Mngement Pln reduces trffic friction nd provides sfer pedestrin movement nd better trnsit opertions. Muldoon Rod lndscping nd pedestrin improvements enhnce trvel lterntives nd trnsit use, s well s opportunities for beutifiction. Southwest Anchorge Northwood extension nd frontge rods on Minnesot Drive improve north-south connectivity. Jewel Lke Rod improvements help crete neighborhood nd trnsitfriendly commercil res. Centrl Anchorge Dowling Rod extension from Abbott Loop Rod to Minnesot Drive improves est-west trvel options. Connectivity under the Sewrd Highwy t 92nd, 76th, nd 68th venues offers more route choices to midtown nd downtown destintions. C Street extension offers connectivity for crs, trnsit, pedestrins, nd bicyclists. Extensions of 92nd nd 100th venues improve connectivity nd freight movement. Sewrd Highwy improvements hndle high trffic volume in the corridor. Southest Anchorge Elmore Rod extension improves connectivity to severl schools nd ssists emergency response nd fire sfety on the Hillside. Predominnt est-west rterils re upgrded to meet demnd, nd missing links re dded. The numbers on the mp identify specific projects in Tble 8-1. Project 810, the Knik Arm Crossing, which runs from the AMATS boundry north of the Port of Anchorge, tying into the Anchorge rodwy network t Loop Rod nd Gmbell nd Ingr streets, ws dded by mendment. Detils of the project re found in Chpter 12. ANC/