Advancing Vehicle and Fuel Technologies

Transcription

1 US Department of Energy Advancing Vehicle and Fuel Technologies Presented by David E. Rodgers Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency Governors Summit on Alternative Transportation Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Tampa, Florida December 13-14,

2 Multiple Pathways to Accelerate Market Penetration of Renewable and Energy Efficient Technologies Power Generation Solar Wind Hydropower Geothermal Fuels & Vehicles Biomass/Biofuels Hydrogen Vehicle Technologies -Batteries Energy Efficiency Buildings Technologies Industrial Technologies Weatherization Federal Energy Management The President s Advanced Energy Initiative aims to change the way we power our homes, business, and automobiles. 2

3 Prioritization for Energy Efficiency Technology Continue fundamental and applied R&D for enabling technologies to reduce the energy consumption and carbon footprint of the built environment (homes, offices, and manufacturing) Regulation Establishment of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Provide utilities with returns on energy efficiency comparable or superior to investments in generation; provide industry with pathway for best practices Promote superior model building codes with executable plan of coordinated implementation by the States Accelerate appliance standards Education and Outreach Multi-generational education and behavioral change to build an energy efficiency ethic Deployment Expand advocacy for energy efficient lighting (e.g., CFLs, LEDs) Upgrade civic infrastructure (e.g., schools, hospitals, libraries, municipal facilities) to be energy efficient, secure sites for distributed generation Expand Save Energy Now for industry with State partners 3

4 Energy Efficiency Has the Technical Potential to Level Energy Demand Growth EIA Business as Usual Projected Demand Growth Buildings Lighting Envelope ZEBs Appliances Codes Industry Transportation Super Boilers Nano Mfg Direct Steelmaking Efficient Data Centers CHP 2017 Tech. Potential Savings 8 Quads 2022 Tech. Potential Savings 14 Quads 2030 Tech. Potential Savings 26 Quads Hybrids Advanced Diesels PHEVs Lightweight Materials Source: DOE Scenario Projections 4

5 Vehicle Fuel Economy Trends Tested Combined Fuel Economy (MPG) Light Truck Share of the Light Vehicle Market Cars 50 Miles per Gallon Light Trucks Both Light Truck Percent of Sales Model Year MPG is Stagnant Model Year Growing Share for Trucks Under business as usual scenarios even assuming some fuel economy improvements U.S. petroleum consumption grows 30% by 2030 to over 50 quads, approximately 25 M barrels per day. 5

6 Multiple Technologies Available to Increase MPG Technology Fuel Economy Improvement 1 Estimated Cost per Vehicle Reduced Engine Friction 2% - 5.3% ( mpg) $33 - $151 Cylinder Deactivation 4.2% - 6.4% ( mpg) $112 - $252 Improved Transmission 4.2% - 8.7% ( mpg) $140 - $350 Renewable Fuel 0.8 gal petroleum displaced per gal of E85 <$150 Integrated Starter Generator 4.2% - 7.5% ( mpg) $210 - $350 Reduced Parasitic Losses 5% - 9.3% ( mpg) $225 - $500 Weight Reductions (10% to 30% reduction) 6% - 24% ( mpg) $350 - $2,100 Improved Engine Mechanics 10% - 22% (mpg) $700 - $1,470 Mild Hybridization 10% - 15% ( mpg) $1,000 - $1,500 Advanced Combustion Engines 30% - 50% ( mpg) $2,000 - $3,000 Full Hybridization 30% - 40% ( mpg) $3,000 - $5,000 Source: National Academies of Science 6

7 Vehicle Technologies Roadmap Status 2007 Li Ion PHEV Battery Advanced Combustion & Fuels Clean Diesel HEV Availability E85 Deployment Ni-MH HEV Battery PHEV Components Affordable Carbon Fiber Adv. Electric Motor Power & Electronics Top Priorities for Current Investments: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Batteries Hybrid drive systems Ethanol vehicle optimization and infrastructure High-efficiency combustion engines Light-weight materials Waste heat recovery Technology Deployment DOE TECHNOLOGIES 7

8 Diversification Diversifying energy supply = less vulnerable to geopolitical uncertainties, price volatility, and supply disruptions from natural disasters Diversifying technology portfolio = take advantage of all evolving pathways in automotive technologies 8

9 PHEVs Enable Electricity as a Mainstream Fuel Hybrid Electric Vehicles combine electric drive components with conventional drivetrains to improve vehicle fuel economy but cannot access electricity from the grid. Plug-in Hybrids use more battery energy to propel the vehicle enabling significant electric only mode, grid recharging, and higher MPG. (Mid-size vehicle, imp tech) Conv Veh HEV P-HEV20 P-HEV40 P-HEV60 EPRI (2001) 28.9 mpg 41.9 mpg 57.6 mpg mpg Argonne (PSAT) 30.5 mpg 46.4 mpg 58.3 mpg 68.1 mpg - - Top RD&D priorities: Reduced cost Increased durability Abuse and Temperature Tolerance 44% of all U.S. vehicles travel less than 20 miles per day 9

10 Battery Development is a Critical Enabler 10

11 DOE PHEV R&D Energy Storage USABC $28M cost shared solicitation for PHEV battery development. Awards were recently made to 5 Battery Developers/Manufacturers. Power Electronics and Electric Machines 5 awards were made from a solicitation for Development of Power Electronics and Electric Motor Technology for PHEV, Internal Combustion Engine HEV and FCV Traction Drive Applications Hybrid and Vehicle Systems Notice of Intent (NOI) - PHEV Demonstration and Validation 11

12 States Should Enable Electricity as a Transportation Fuel Smart metering Rate structure reform Load balancing options Net metering Innovative business models Time of use rates 12

13 Ethanol Supply is Exceeding Demand - Current Ethanol Facilities: Current Capacity: 6.88 billion gallons - Capacity Under Construction: 6.4 billion gallons 8 U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity If all gasoline sold in the U.S. today was E10 (10% ethanol) it would require 14 BGY of ethanol production is projected to exceed this blend wall in the next 36 months projected production capacity exceeds the 2012 Renewable Fuels Standard requirement of 7.5 BGY Billion Gallons per Year * As of 11/07 Source: Renewable Fuels Association. Expanding the market via E85 is difficult since < 3% of the existing vehicle fleet is Flex-Fuel and < 1% of fueling stations carry E85 13

14 What if States Maximize Ethanol Use? 14

15 Intermediate Blends: Critical Pathway to Expand the Ethanol Market Billion Gallons Billion Gallons E10 E E E85 Billion Gallons E85 E

16 20-in-10 Ethanol Ramp and CO2 Impact 700 MMT CO2 Avoided Through 2017 U.S. Ethanol Production (Billion Gallons) CO 2 Avoided Relative to EIA BAU 3% reduced in 2017 Corn Ethanol Avoided CO2 Corn + Cellulosic Ethanol Avoided CO2 (MMT) Sources: CO2 BAU EIA; Corn Ethanol Production EIA; Cellulosic Ethanol Production and CO2 Avoided USDOE - EERE 16

17 Ethanol Technical and Economic Potential Cellulosic ethanol anticipated cost competitiveness and sustainability attributes are key to biofuels growth potential Historical and Projected Cellulosic Ethanol Costs Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (cents/gal) Cost reductions to date Future goal Federal research has achieved major reductions in the cost of cellulosic ethanol Enzyme Feedstock Conversion (dollars per gallon) 2007 (dollars per gallon) 2012 (dollars per gallon) Enzyme Feedstock* Conversion Total *Feedstock is assumed to be $53 per dry ton (2007 dollars) in 2007 and projected at $46 per dry ton (2007 dollars) in

18 DOE R&D: How do Existing Vehicles & Equipment Perform on Intermediate Blends? Testing of existing fleet vehicles Determining the effects of intermediate blends on the vehicles in use today (100 vehicles to be tested) Emissions, durability, driveability Testing will include E0, E10, E15 and E20 Small, non-road engines Generators, Leaf blowers, line trimmers, etc. Materials compatibility reviews and studies 18

19 E85 Success Story: UL In Nov 2006, DOE partnered with Underwriters Laboratories (UL) to address lack of standards for E85 dispensers In Oct 2007, UL introduced standard testing procedures for E85 fueling equipment New Safety Certified (listed) E85 dispensers are expected to be available within the next 6 to 8 months. Eliminates the need for state and local safety waivers. 19

20 DOE Non-Petroleum Fuel R&D E85 Fuel Efficiency Optimization of an FFV engine operating on E85 and intermediate blends E85 and lower level ethanol blends Materials compatibility, Emissions, Driveability Increase efficiency and power density of hydrogen internal combustion engines Development of enhanced fuel specifications to foster wider acceptance of higher-level biodiesel blends 20

21 Clean Cities Program DOE is investing up to $9 million in to support local efforts to acquire alternative fuel vehicles and build refueling stations 21

22 Top TEN: Lessons Learned from Clean Cities 1. Integrated development of infrastructure and vehicle sales 2. Air quality strong driver for some fleets 3. Go to resources already in place (85 Clean Cities Coalitions) 4. Bridging gap between technologies and demand requires technical, financial, and policy assistance 5. State and local incentives are essential 6. Technologies must be mature to avoid turning off users due to bad experiences 7. Codes and standards are essential 8. Don t sell altruism sell a value proposition 9. Be patient and don t abandon efforts too early 10. Local champions are always required 22

23 State and Fuel Provider Fleet Program EPAct 1992 requires States and fuel providers to acquire alternative fuel vehicles More than 300 covered entities in 44 states and DC. States have acquired nearly 80,000 alternative fuel vehicles (71.5%) Fuel providers have acquired nearly 32,000 alternative fuel vehicles (28.5%) Biggest issues: Lack of vehicle options Lack of refueling stations 23

24 Consumers Need Information 24

25 Role of States / Governors To meet this challenge effectively, Federal and State governments must work together. Governors are uniquely situated to Adopt policies to promote alternative fuels and electricity as a transportation fuel Prioritize alternative fuels and advanced vehicles in State fleets Partner with industry to accelerate commercialization 25

26 All Science Is Global Please contact us at with questions about U.S. clean energy technology development 26