Advanced Vehicle Technologies

Transcription

1 Advanced Vehicle Technologies David L. Greene Oak Ridge National Laboratory Governors Summit on Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Tampa, Florida December 13-14, 2007

2 What s possible? Proven technologies can increase new vehicle MPG 40-50%, cost-effectively, by Advanced technologies could achieve a doubling of MPG by 2030, perhaps a tripling for hybrids. That should be enough to hold light-duty vehicle carbon emissions constant through To achieve a 70% reduction by 2050 will require new technologies and new energy sources.

3 From 1975 to 1985, new light-duty vehicle MPG increased 5.0%/year. Current legislation calls for an increase from 25 to 35 MPG (40%) by 2020, a rate of just under 3%/year. New Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy, EPA Combined Test M PG Cars %/ 5.5%/yr. Trucks %/yr. Passenger Cars Light Trucks Combined

4 Near term fuel economy improvement potential is estimated from a long list of technologies, each having a small impact (from EEA 2006). Short Term ( ) Medium Term ( ) Long Term ( ) TECHNOLOGY TYPE Cumulative GHG Benefit [%] Cumulative RPE [US$] Cumulative GHG Benefit [%] Cumulative RPE [US$] Cumulative GHG Benefit [%] Cumulative RPE [US$] Early Torque Converter Lockup Rolling Resistance Reduction by 10% Drag Reduction by 10% Rolling Resistance Reduction by 20% Drage Reduction by 20% Aggressive Shift Logic Improved Lube Oil Engine Friction Reduction by 8% I Stoichiometric GDI I Weight Reduction by 5% Engine Friction Reduction by 15% I DOHC VVT (Intake) I VVT (Intake plus Exhaust) DOHC I Engine Friction Reduction by 8% V6 Technology Alternator Improvements VVL Discrete OHV-2v V Stoichiometric GDI V VVL Discrete OHC-4v I Engine Friction Reduction by 8% V Engine Friction Reduction by 15% V VVLT Intake Continuous DOHC I Engine Off at Idle(Manual Transmission) VVL Discrete OHV-2v V Engine Friction Reduction by 15% V Electric Power Steering Five Speed Automatic Transmissions Six Speed Automatic Transmissions Seven Speed Automatic Transmissions Continuously Variable Transmissions (Engines < 2.8L) /5 Valves I Camless Valve Actuation I Stoichiometric GDI V Weight Reduction by 10% Turbocharging & GDI with Engine Downsize V6 to I DOHC VVT (Intake) V DOHC VVT (Intake) V VVT (Intake plus Exhaust) DOHC V VVT (Intake plus Exhaust) DOHC V VVL Discrete OHC-4v V VVLT Intake Continuous DOHC V Continuously Variable Transmissions (Engines > 2.8L) Turbocharging & GDI with Engine Downsize V8 to V /5 Valves V VVL Discrete OHC-4v V VVLT Intake Continuous DOHC V Cylinder Deactivation V6 with Noise Cancellation & Cont. VVLT Cylinder Deactivation V8 & Cont. VVLT Camless Valve Actuation V6 Incl. Cyl Deact Camless Valve Actuation V8 Incl. Cyl Deact Engine Off at Idle (Auto. Transmission & AC) Weight Reduction by 15% Electric Water Pump Homogeneous Combustion Compression Ignition (HCCI) I Homogeneous Combustion Compression Ignition (HCCI) V Medium Term Potential Cumulative % FC Red. Cost % FE Incr. Early Torque Converter Lock-up 0.50% $ % Rolling Resistance Reduction by 10% 1.99% $ % Drag Reduction by 10% 3.95% $ % Rolling Resistance Reduction by 20% 5.30% $ % Drag Reduction by 20% 7.00% $ % Aggressive Shift Logic 7.58% $ % Improved Lube Oil 8.50% $ % Engine Friction Reduction by 8% I4 9.52% $ % Stoichiometric GDI I % $ % Weight Reduction by 5% 14.85% $ % Engine Friction Reduction by 15% I % $ % DOHC VVT (Intake) I % $ % VVT (Intake plus Exhaust) DOHC I % $ % Engine Friction Reduction by 8% V % $ % Alternator Improvements 17.96% $ % VVL Discrete OHV-2v V % $ % Stoichiometric GDI V % $ % VVL Discrete OHV-4v I % $ %

5 Accumulating technologies in a logical order yields a fuel economy cost function. Increa ase in RPE (2005 $U US) Fuel Economy Increase Cost Curve Large Domestic SUV (EEA, 2006) $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 EEA Data Predicted NAS Lg SUV 0% 20% 40% 60% Percent MPG Increase

6 Increasing passenger car and light truck fuel economy by 30% to 50% with proven technology would be cost efficient at gasoline prices from $2 to $3 per gallon. Cost-Efficient Increase in Light-Duty Fuel Economy NAS 2002 Method 60% LD DV MPG Increase 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Full Lifetime Fuel Savings 3-year Payback $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Price of Gasoline per Gallon ($2005)

7 A 2007 MIT study predicts MPG gains of 80-85% for model year 2030 vehicles via continuous improvement of conventional technology at a rate of 2-2.5%/year. Potential for Advanced Technologies to Increase Fuel Economy by EPA Combi ined MPG Camry 2.5L Camry 3.0 F-150 Pick-up Base 2030 Adv Diesel 2030 Turbo SI 2030 Hybrid Source: Kasseris & Heywood, SAE Technical Paper , April, 2007.

8 What must we give up? The horsepower & weight race. dex 1087 = 1.0 In Weight Horsepower MPG 223 hp 4, hp Source: U.S. EPA, Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: , p. ii.

9 MIT also analyzed the technical potential & cost for electric drive to raise energy efficiency by Cost v. Energy Efficiency of Future Electric Powertrain Technologies $16,000 $14,000 Battery Electric Powertra ain Cost $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 H2 Fuel Cell PHEV 60 PHEV 30 PHEV 10 HEV Diesel Turbo SI NA SI 2006 Base $ Energy Use: MJ/km Source: Kromer & Heywood, LFEE RP, May, 2007.

10 The greater energy efficiency of electric drive technologies can cut well-to-wheel GHG emissions in half, much more if electricity is decarbonized. 300 Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions of Advanced Vehicle Technologiess 250 gc CO2/km Tank-to-Wheels Well-to-Tank Base 2030 NA SI 2030 Turbo SI 2030 Diesel 2030 HEV 2030 PHEV PHEV PHEV H2 FCV Source: Kromer & Heywood, Assumes H2 from natural gas, electricity is EIA 2030 mix BEV

11 Reducing C emissions 70% by 2050 will require technological breakthroughs, strong C constraining policy, and policies i to support an energy transition. CO2 Emissions From LDVs kg) CO2 tons (trill Giga Scenario0, CO2 Tax = $25/MT Scenario3, CO2 Tax = $25/MT Scenario3, CO2 Tax = $00/MT

12 What can states do to advance vehicle technology? Lead. Provide incentives ($, perks, identity). Improve transportation markets: Pricing of transportation and energy Consumer information & education Create niche markets for advanced technology. Research, Development and Demonstration. Plan and execute the transition to low-carbon energy for transportation.

13 Thank you.