Alternate pathways to reduced petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Alternate pathways to reduced petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions"

Duane Lawrence
5 years ago
Views:

1 Alternate pathways to reduced petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions Use of Hydrogen for the Light Duty Transportation Fleet: Technology and Economic Analysis NETL/ANL Scenario Analysis Results USAEE/IAEE North American Conference September 2, 25 Peter C. Balash Economist National Energy Technology Laboratory

2 Disclaimer/acknowledgements I would like to thank my co-authors and colleagues: Donald Hanson, ANL Dave Schmalzer, ANL Dale Keairns, NETL John Molburg, ANL Kathy Stirling, NETL John Marano, ANL/NETL Ken Kern, NETL And other colleagues for their helpful comments along the way All views expressed are those of the authors and should not be construed to reflect the policies or views of the United States Department of Energy, the National Energy Technology Laboratory, or Argonne National Laboratory

3 Dedication This presentation is dedicated to the memory of John Ruether ( ) NETL Senior Engineer, friend, colleague, and project inspiration

4 Can Energy Security and Climate Concerns be Reconciled? President Bush, February 23: Reduction of Petroleum Consumption 11 million barrels per day, by 24 Reduction of Carbon Equivalent 5 million metric tons per year, by 24 NETL/ANL Study Assumption Reductions are from forecasted baseline

5 US Energy Consumption by Fuel History Projections Quadrillion Btus Oil Shocks and Economic Restructuring Domestic Petroleum Petroleum Imports Coal NH-Rew hydro nuclear coal NG dom NG imp. pet.dom pet imp. Source: EIA; : Annual Energy Review 23, Table 1.3; : Annual Energy Outlook 25, Tables 1,2, and 17 Natural Gas Imports Domestic Natural Gas Non-Fossil

6 US GHG Emissions, Tg year 6129 Tg Tg CO2 Eq. CO2 N2O CH4 HFCs PFCs and SF6 Source: EPA, 24 Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Tables, Table ES-2

7 22 US CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion, by Sector Tg CO petroleum natural gas coal Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electricity Source: EPA, 24 Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Tables, Table 3.3

8 Scenario Project Purpose Study plausible scenarios for hydrogen economy Recognition of role of petroleum complex and transportation fuels infrastructure Investigate macro role of coal-based technologies For both petroleum substitution and carbon reductions

9 Scenario Project Purpose, cont d Support wider DOE hydrogen economy modeling effort Initial implementation of DOE (H2A) cost estimates Respond to National Academy call for Fossil Energy Systems Analysis to study H2 economy Identify appropriate economic drivers Guide techno-economic system to optimal outcome within scenario period

10 NETL/ANL Scenario Analysis Target Transportation and Power Generation Enabling Technologies Hybrid-Electric Vehicles; Fuel Cells Carbon Capture and Sequestration Coal-to-Liquids (Fischer-Tropsch) Externality Charges Energy Security Premium Carbon Charge

11 Technical Challenges Integration of cost and performance specifications of refinery and coproduction plants with AMIGA economic model. Important for richer representation of investment choices Implementation of H2A cost estimates for technologies not yet in existence Must assume technological breakthrough in FCV case Identification of appropriate performance characteristics of advanced vehicles

12 Scenario Structure Uses Presidential reduction goals as drivers Reductions from future, not current, levels H2-economy based on FCV a possible means to achieving quantitative goals, not an end in itself As distinct from Academy study (24) replacement of petroleum-based light-duty vehicle fleet, or DOE H2 Posture plan (25) Focus on renewable hydrogen Recognition of scientific debate E.g. Romm (24), Shinnar (23), Demirdöven and Deutch (24)

13 Petroleum Target 35 Million barrels per day mmb/d reduction from AMIGA ref. implies future consumption at today s levels AEO25 AMIGA Source: EIA AEO25 Yearly Table 11; author extrapolation; AMIGA reference run

14 Carbon Emissions Target Million Metric tons C eq. per year C target reduction from AMIGA ref. reduces C to level ~7% above today s AEO25 AMIGA Ref Source: EIA AEO25 Yearly Table 18 (transport petroleum; electric power); author extrapolation; AMIGA reference run

15 Scale of Challenge 35 Vehicle Stock Increases 63% HEVs Millions of Vehicles HEVs Large SUV Conv. SUV Large SUV Conv. SUV 1 Large Car Large Car 5 Small Car Small Car Source: AMIGA Reference Run

16 How to Achieve Cuts Reference Case: Business as usual Oil Prices From $37/b in 21; Gas Prices from $6/mmBtu Extended Transition Hybrid-electric vehicles and Clean Hydrocarbons HEV case Coal Power/Fischer-Tropsch Co-Production Plants Hydrogen Achievement Hydrogen Production for Fuel Cell Vehicles FCV case DOE H 2 Posture Plan guidelines Clear Skies -Like Emissions Targets Energy Security Charges on premium fuels from 21 H 2 A program (DOE EE) H 2 cost data Gasification, Hydrotreating and Clean fuels Refinery Modeling Nuclear Generating Capacity Constant Carbon Charges on Electricity generation from 215 Four size categories of Hybrids; eventual Plug-Ins More stringent clean air regulations begin in California Technological breakthroughs assumed Assumptions are kept from left to right

17 Externality Charges 8 7 $ per metric ton C; $ per barrel oil Model optimizes imposition of charges More stringent anti-smog measures + higher fuel economy implies lower C charge for FCV case Reference Carb Ch - HEV Carb Ch - FCV ES Prem - HEV ES Prem - FCV Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

18 Effective Oil Prices 7 Extended Transition 7 Hydrogen Achievement $/bbl World Oil Price ES charge per bbl Carb Ch per bbl World Oil Price ES charge per bbl Carb Ch per bbl Externality charges result in higher effective than nominal oil prices; Slightly higher imputed carbon and energy security charges in HEV-only case Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

19 Vehicle Stocks 3 Extended Transition 3 Hydrogen Achievement Million vehicles HEVs FCVs ICEs HEVs ICEs HEVs FCVs Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

20 Distribution of Vehicle Types in FCV Case Small Car CV 2% YEAR 24 Large Car CV 15% FCV 43% FCV 5% In end-period, FCVs dominate middle categories, but HEVs remain and large ICEs retain attraction Conv. SUV HEV 37% CV 17% FCV 18% Large SUV HEV 35% FCV 52% HEV 31% HEV 19% CV 63% Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs, FCV Case

21 Mileage, Full-size Cars, Hydrogen Achievement Miles per gallon gasoline equivalent full-size cars Efficiencies of competing advanced vehicles improve Large CV Large HEV Large FCV Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

22 Reduced Petroleum Consumption % of goal met through efficiency; 15% from coal/f-t substitution FT-Fuels Offset Other fuels vehicle fuels Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs - HEV case Million barrels per day

23 Petroleum Supply Slate Extended Transition 25. Million barrels /day Crude imports lead decline Domestic Oil Crude Imports NGL Net product imports Other Inputs Volume Gain

24 Carbon Emissions by Sector, year 24 Million metric tonnes C H2 carbon Other Transport Power reference FCV HEV Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

25 Reductions in C, target year 24 FCV Case total: 5 MmtC HEV Case total: 537 MmtC other, 17 other, 18 Transport 343 renew, 12.4 Power 25 IGCC seq, 12.6 Transport 292 Power 228 renew, IGCC seq, 15.4 Transportation bears larger burden of C reduction in FCV case Renewable power expansion plays bigger role in C reduction in HEV case Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

26 C Reductions over Time Anti-Smog measures push transport sector in FCV case FCV Case Million Metric Tons C Higher C charge pushes power sector in HEV case Power Transport O ther HEV Case Million Metric Tons C Power Transport Other Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

27 Total Electrical Output, Year Growth in energy input to transport sector increases overall generation in HEV Case 6% v. reference 4.8% v. FCV case 71 Trillion Watt Hours reference FCV case HEV case Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

28 Energy Supply Growth to Vehicles HEV Case Trillion Btus Growth in Energy Input to Transport Sector levels off as more efficient plug-in HEVs become prevalent Petroleum Grid Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs - HEV case

29 Coal Usage Year Quadrillion Btus reference HEV FCV Old Coal Power New Coal Power FT plants Coal to H2 Existing coal generation disappears except in reference case. Advanced coal generation highest in reference case, but coal use 11-15% higher in alternative scenarios due to increased usage in FT plants and coal-to-hydrogen plants Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs

30 Observations HEVs are more efficient relative to both conventional ICEs and H 2 FCVs than in the National Academy Study Higher carbon reduction targets would require more coal plant sequestration More reduction in petroleum in sectors other than lightduty fleet Sensitivities could include constrained oil supplies less efficient advanced vehicles higher carbon reduction targets faster development of coal technologies

Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future

Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future March 15, 2007 PacifiCorp Climate Working Group Bryan Hannegan Vice President - Environment EPRI Role Basic Research and Development Collaborative