Impacts of Tighter CAFE and GHG Regula<ons on Automo<ve Profits. Walter McManus Economist Automo2ve Analysis Group
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1 Impacts of Tighter CAFE and GHG Regula<ons on Automo<ve Profits Walter McManus Economist Automo2ve Analysis Group 1
2 Regulatory Context Energy Policy and Conserva2on Act (1975) Energy Independence and Security Act (2007) NHTSA EPA CARB Clean Air Act (1963, 1970, 1977, 1990) U.S. Supreme Court, Mass. Vs. EPA 2007 Waiver of pre- emp2on under CAA (2009) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Pollu<on, including GHG 2
3 Before CAFE cars over 4000 lbs. were 40% of light- duty market; Light- duty trucks over 4000 lbs. a recent phenomenon Wenzel & Ross
4 S<ff frame rails of pickups & SUVs Wenzel & Ross
5 Trucks and SUVs make everyone less safe Wenzel & Ross
6 Fuel Economy Focus: Perspectives on 2020 Industry Implications Ceres Citigroup Equity Research Meszler Engineering Services Baum and Associates Automotive Analysis Group, UMTRI Natural Resources Defense Council 6
7 2020 ANALYSIS OF PROFITS Limit on plausibility of detailed forecasts Developed baseline forecast of sales units Vehicle by configuration to 2015 Manufacturer by segment to sales: 16.3 million units 2020 mpg: 31 mpg Used technology package assumptions (and variable costs) to boost overall fuel economy to 42 mpg Walter McManus University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 7
8 COSTS FOR 2020 ANALYSIS Basic cost es2mates reflect variable costs to the vehicle manufacturer. The es2mates reflect future costs ( meframe) and thus assume varying levels of cost reduc2on due to learning and volume produc2on. Thus, the costs are, in some cases, substan2ally lower than the costs that would be incurred if such technologies were implemented today. Meszler Engineering Services 8
9 EXAMPLE TECHNOLOGY PACKAGES 2020 target (42 mpg) requires roughly 55% gain over current CAFE 2020 workhorse conven<onal package ~55-60% fuel economy boost Turbocharged/downsized/GDI + valve control + AMT8 + EPS + 10% mass reduc2on + 5% drag reduc2on + low fric2on lube + engine fric2on reduc2on + aggressive shia logic + low rolling resistance 2res Cooled/boosted EGR allows for even larger gains (at higher cost) 2020 HEV (onboard recharge) package ~90-110% fuel economy boost P2 HEV (2 Mode for towing apps) on the back of conven2onal workhorse package 2020 PHEV/EV packages FE boosts of % due to credits for EV- only opera2on, but much higher costs NOT needed to achieve 2020 target GDI = gasoline direct injection, AMT8 = 8 speed automated manual transmission (non-towing = dry, towing = wet), EPS = electric power steering, EGR = exhaust gas recirculation, HEV = hybrid electric vehicle, PHEV = plug-in HEV, EV = electric-only drivetrain, FE = fuel economy. Meszler Engineering Services 9
10 ECONOMETRIC MODEL Elasticity matrix for automaker by segment derived from historical analysis by General Motors Prices projected based on historical J.D. Power and Associates and other information Variable profit rises with vehicle price, at a decreasing rate Variable profit assumed to be lower for electrified than for conventional vehicles Walter McManus University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 10
11 ASSUMPTIONS: VARIABLE PROFITS Walter McManus University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 11
12 Important but Uncertain Factors Scenario Alternatives Minimum Baseline Maximum Consumer discount rate 17.2% 12.2% 5.2% Life of vehicle (years) Annual miles driven 10,000 15,000 20,000 Price of fuel ($/gal) $2.00 $4.00 $10.00 Consumer risk preference 30% 75% 140% Walter McManus University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 12
13 Overall Results Impacts on sales and profits!"##"$%&'$(')$##*+&,$+-.*&/ 01*%2-3'.1*%2-4%)5&/+6'7*+"*8#-'9+$("/ :;<=>< :?>; :AA>; :B>; ;C3 F"##"$%&'$('5%"/&,$+-.*&/ 01*%2-3'.1*%2-4%)5&/+6'&*#-&'5%"/& ;>< E>< <>D?3 Walter McManus University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 13
14 WHY THE BIG 3 GAIN RELATIVE TO THE JAPAN 3 Big 3 (Detroit 3): General Motors, Ford, Chrysler The gap in fuel economy between Big 3 & Japan 3 is narrowed by the regulation Trucks and larger cars, in which Big 3 are more invested, have greater potential for added consumer value through improving fuel economy Costs of improving fuel economy are relatively lower for trucks and larger cars Prices and variable profits are higher for trucks and larger cars Walter McManus University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 14
15 Sensi<vity of outcomes One Factor MPG 42 to 44 Sales - 1.0m to +2.5m Profit - $2b to +$18b Big 3 - $0.3b to +$9b Two Factors MPG 41 to 45 Sales - 1.5m to +4.5m Profit - $5b to +$30b Big 3 - $2b to +$14b
16 Industry Profits; 1 factor Industry profit; 1 factor p_fuel $2.00 $10.00 factorm 30% 140% life 3 15 vmt 10,000 20,000 rate 17.2% 0.0% ($6.0) ($4.0) ($2.0) $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0 $14.0 $16.0 $18.0 $20.0 $22.0 industry profit
17 Industry Profits; 2 factors Industry profit; 2 factors p_fuel & factorm $2.00 & 30% $10.00 & 140% life & p_fuel 3 & $ & $10.00 rate & p_fuel 17.2% & $ % & $10.00 vmt & p_fuel 10,000 & $ ,000 & $10.00 life & factorm 3 & 30% 15 & 140% rate & life 17.2% & 3 0.0% & 15 rate & factorm 17.2% & 30% 0.0% & 140% vmt & factorm 10,000 & 30% 20,000 & 140% life & vmt 3 & 10, & 20,000 rate & vmt 17.2% & 10, % & 20,000 ($15.0) ($10.0) ($5.0) $0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 $40.0 industry profit
18 Big 3 Profits; 1 factor Big 3 profits; 1 factor p_fuel $2.00 $10.00 factorm 30% 140% life 3 15 vmt 10,000 20,000 rate 17.2% 0.0% ($2.0) ($1.0) $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0 $8.0 $9.0 $10.0 big 3 profit
19 Big 3 Profits; 2 factors Big 3 profits; 2 factors p_fuel & factorm $2.00 & 30% $10.00 & 140% life & p_fuel 3 & $ & $10.00 rate & p_fuel 17.2% & $ % & $10.00 vmt & p_fuel 10,000 & $ ,000 & $10.00 life & factorm 3 & 30% 15 & 140% rate & life 17.2% & 3 0.0% & 15 rate & factorm 17.2% & 30% 0.0% & 140% vmt & factorm 10,000 & 30% 20,000 & 140% life & vmt 3 & 10, & 20,000 rate & vmt 17.2% & 10, % & 20,000 ($6.0) ($4.0) ($2.0) $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0 $14.0 $16.0 $18.0 big 3 profit
20 Walter McManus Thank you University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (248)
21 SOURCES FOR TECH IMPACTS AND COSTS 2008 (for model years ), 2009 and 2010 (for model years ), and 2010 (for model years ) U.S. Environmental Protec2on Agency (EPA) and Na2onal Highway Traffic Safety Administra2on CAFE and greenhouse gas standard rulemaking documents. U.S. EPA, EPA 420- R , Light Duty Technology Cost Analysis, Pilot Study, Prepared by FEV, Inc. under EPA Contract Number EP- C , December Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future, Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Light- Duty Motor Vehicles, September U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Informa2on Administra2on, DOE/EIA 0554(2010), Assump2ons to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010, With Projec2ons to 2035, Transporta2on Demand Module Chapter, April (2008 and 2009 versions also consulted) Na2onal Academy of Sciences, Na2onal Research Council, Effec2veness and Impact of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards, Na2onal Academy Press, Washington, D.C., Na2onal Academy of Sciences, Na2onal Research Council, Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light Duty Vehicles, Na2onal Academy Press, Washington, D.C., Ongoing (currently unpublished) simula2on modeling results. Various automo2ve trade publica2ons. Meszler Engineering Services 21
22 SALES FORECAST 2020 Segment Chrysler Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota Others All Auto makers CARLUX 67,419 48, ,376 55, , , ,791 1,373,365 CARMID 294, , , , , , ,338 3,808,995 CARSML 113, , , , , , ,275 3,541,802 CUVLUX 66,548 48,312 66,871 24, ,623 38, ,919 CUVMID 88, , , ,487 74, , ,683 1,431,288 CUVSML 126, , , , , , ,800 1,828,524 MINIVAN 307, , ,102 61, ,811 PULRG 244, , ,061 41, ,494 1,733,287 PUSML 60, , ,653 SUVLRG 45, ,878 27, ,551 SUVLUX 10,255 23,825 27, , ,876 SUVMID 144,104 61,519 76,110 20, ,158 SUVSML 122,185 33, ,617 VANLRG 29, ,084 74,723 17, ,926 All Segments 1,538,569 2,655,039 2,805,484 1,608,949 1,449,403 2,624,794 3,628,533 16,310,771 Walter McManus University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 22
23 BASELINE SCENARIO 2020 Consumer discount rate 12.2% Annual miles driven 15,000 Life of vehicle (years) 7 Price of fuel ($/gal) $4.00 Consumer preference for fuel cost risk 75% Segment Chrysler Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota Others All Auto makers CARLUX 84,661 48, ,384 66, , , ,721 1,411,040 CARMID 327, , , , , , ,732 4,096,769 CARSML 133, , , , , ,136 1,211,349 3,082,142 CUVLUX 62,373 59,067 79,624 30, ,453 39, ,916 CUVMID 103, , , ,685 74, , ,570 1,677,332 CUVSML 133, , , , , , ,861 2,142,317 MINIVAN 348, , ,516 96, ,832 PULRG 254, , ,904 40, ,306 1,889,584 PUSML 75, , ,508 SUVLRG 59, ,618 32, ,731 SUVLUX 12,585 26,868 32, , ,694 SUVMID 184,192 61,813 77,207 26, ,335 SUVSML 133,198 49, ,723 VANLRG 28, , ,872 27, ,235 All Segments 1,732,688 2,970,867 2,913,470 1,583,122 1,317,732 2,520,241 4,258,037 17,296,158 Walter McManus University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 23
24 MPG; 1 factor MPG 2020; 1 factor p_fuel $2.00 $10.00 factorm 30% 140% life 3 15 vmt 10,000 20,000 rate 17.2% 0.0% MPG 2020
25 MPG; 2 factors MPG 2020; 2 factors p_fuel & factorm $2.00 & 30% $10.00 & 140% life & p_fuel 3 & $ & $10.00 rate & p_fuel 17.2% & $ % & $10.00 vmt & p_fuel 10,000 & $ ,000 & $10.00 life & factorm 3 & 30% 15 & 140% rate & life 17.2% & 3 0.0% & 15 rate & factorm 17.2% & 30% 0.0% & 140% vmt & factorm 10,000 & 30% 20,000 & 140% life & vmt 3 & 10, & 20,000 rate & vmt 17.2% & 10, % & 20, MPG 2020
26 Industry Sales; 1 factor Incremental sales 2020; 1 factor p_fuel $2.00 $10.00 factorm 30% 140% life 3 15 vmt 10,000 20,000 rate 17.2% 0.0% (2.0) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) Incremental Sales 2020 (millions)
27 Industry Sales; 2 factors Incremental sales 2020; 2 factors p_fuel & factorm $2.00 & 30% $10.00 & 140% life & p_fuel 3 & $ & $10.00 rate & p_fuel 17.2% & $ % & $10.00 vmt & p_fuel 10,000 & $ ,000 & $10.00 life & factorm 3 & 30% 15 & 140% rate & life 17.2% & 3 0.0% & 15 rate & factorm 17.2% & 30% 0.0% & 140% vmt & factorm 10,000 & 30% 20,000 & 140% life & vmt 3 & 10, & 20,000 rate & vmt 17.2% & 10, % & 20,000 (3.0) (2.5) (2.0) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) Incremental Sales 2020 (millions)
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