JAPANESE EXPERIENCE IN HIGH SPEED RAIL. Atsushi KOIKE KOBE University, Japan

Transcription

1 JAPANESE EXPERIENCE IN HIGH SPEED RAIL Atsushi KOIKE KOBE University, Japan

2 Contents The History of Japanese HSR Economic Effects of HSR in Japan About New HSR MAGLEV The Purpose of Japanese HSR Projects Spatial CGE Analysis The Results Conclusions

3 The History of Japanese high speed rail The First maglev high speed train rail has started been planned operations to between began Tokyo services and in Osaka Operating line New line

4 Economic Effects of HSR 600,000 (billion yen) (m illion passenger km) 90, ,000 80,000 70, ,000 60, ,000 50,000 40, , ,000 G D P P assenger km of H SR 30,000 20,000 10,

5 About MAGLEV 5

6 The Purpose of Japanese HSR Project 1. Economic Growth of Japanese economy 2. Regional Development for Regional Equity Issues 3. Environmental Friendly for Climate Change

7 Research Background High Speed Rail plays the role of interregional passenger transport. Regional benefits and regional economic effects are important issues of the HSR investment project assessment, sometimes more important than the efficiency of total benefits. The Spatial CGE models are able to provide the answer to above requests 7

8 Model Assumptions of Spatial CGE HSR: Interregional Passenger Transport System Explicit transport service demand (passenger travel) 8

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10 Assumptions Transport Mode Spatial Units Industrial Sectors Exogenous Variable High-speed Rail, air 47 Prefectures 7Sectors Generalized Transport Cost Cases of Analysis Case 1 Scenario 1 Benefit Change of GRP CO2emission OSAKA TOKYO MGLEV 10

11 Results Scinario1:Benefit Benefit billion US$ 14.6 trillion JPY GDP(2000) 4.24% GDP(2000) 3,206 billion US$ 503 trillion JPY Exchange rate:1us$ \(2000) ( million us$/year) km 11

12 Results Scinario1:Change of GNP Change of GNP 10.3 billion US$ /year 1,112 billion yen/ year Exchange rate:1us$ \(2000) A griculture and forestry fisheries M anufacturing 12.4 (unit:bilion yen) C onstruction 94.2 Electric Pow er,g as and W ater Supply 25.1 C om m erce Finance,Insurance and R ealestate Service

13 Results Scniario1:Change of GRP Change of GRP ( million us$/year) A griculture and forestry fisheries M anufacturing C onstruction Electric Pow er,g as and W ater Supply (unit:billion yen) TOKYO C om m erce 5.6 Finance,Insurance and R ealestate 6.6 Service km A griculture and forestry fisheries 0.0 (unit:bilion yen) A griculture and 0.1 forestry fisheries (unit:billion yen) M anufacturing 4.6 M anufacturing 4.7 C onstruction 1.0 C onstruction 0.6 Electric P ow er,g as and W ater Supply C om m erce OSAKA Electric P ow er,g as and W ater Supply C om m erce AICHI(NAGOYA) Finance,Insurance and R ealestate Service Finance,Insurance and R ealestate Service

14 Results Scinario1:CO2 emission Transport sectors [CO2 emission] [Change of CO2 emission] (million t-co2) ,200 1,000 (1000t-C O 2/year) 1, air train MGLEV total without with air train -55 M G LEV total % increase of CO2 emission from transport sector 14

15 Results Sinario1:CO2 emission Industrial sectors [CO2 emission] million t-co2/year [Change of CO2 emission] 1000t-CO2 /year agriculture manufacturing construction electric power commerce finance service without with agriculture manufacturing construction electric power commerce finance service % increase of CO2 emission from industrial sector 15

16 Korean KTX and Japanese MGLEV Tokyo Seoul KTX Busan Osaka MGLEV 16

17 Result :Comparison of KTX and MGLEV scenario1 KTX M G LEV B enefit 40.9 billion U S$ billion U S$ 45.6 trillion w on 14.6 trillion \ cost 19.7 billion U S$ 92.9 billion U S$ 22.0 trillion w on 10.0 trillion \ B /C B enefit/g D P 5.29 % 4.24 % C O 2 em ission transport -257 t- co2/year 610,907 t- co2/year m illion U S$/year m illion U S$/year -3.5 m illion w on/year 1,724.0 m illion \/year industrial 717,904 t- co2/year 327,722 t- co2/year 8.78 m illion U S$/year 8.59 m illion U S$/year 9,792 m illion w on/year 925 m illion \/year 17

18 Conclusions High Speed Rail projects are effective investments not only nationally but also locally in East Asia HRS investments decrease CO2 emissions in transport sectors, however increase it in industrial sectors. The outputs of the SCGE models are useful in evaluating the projects from multiple viewpoints. (regionally, environmentally and so on)