Impact Assessment of High Speed Rail Syste m in Korea

Transcription

1 Impact Assessment of High Speed Rail Syste m in Korea Sep. 30th, 2013 Dr. Jin Young Park Director

2 Contents Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Korean Railway System Energy & CO² ReducKon of High Speed Railway Socio- economic Impact of High Speed Railway Discussions

3 Contents Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Korean Railway System Energy & CO² reduckon of High Speed Railway Socio- economic Impact of High Speed Railway Discussions

4 1. Railway Development during Economic Development Period ( 60s~ 80s) 1) The focus of the transport policy changed from railway to road Decreasing railway investment during Five - Yearly Economy Development Plan Period * Share of railway investment : 61% 29% 22% 12% 10% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17% 52% 52% 48% 47% 80% 61% 12% 22% 29% 29% 31% 0% 16% 15% 4% 3% 10% 12% 14% 10% 1% 8% 8% 1st('62~'66) 2nd('67~'71) 3rd('72~'76) 4th('77~'81) 5th('82~'86) 6th('87~'91) Road Rail Metro Water Air <Transport Infrastructure Investment> 4

5 2. Expansion of Seoul Metropolitan Railway Lines ( 80~ 00) 1) New railway projects in conjunckon with the new town development pol icy Support of new town development Improvement of commutng traffic conditons connected Seoul Gwacheon line, Ilsan line, Bundang line (New residental cites) opened in 1990 s New bundang line constructed by private investment & land development cha rges - Driverless operaton system 5

6 3. Expansion of High Speed Rail Service Area ( 90~) 1) ConstrucTon of Gyeongbu (Seoul~Busan) high speed railway Relieve severe road congeskon in Gyeongbu Corridor - ConcentraTon in Gyeongbu corridor : PopulaTon 65%, GDP 74% HSR plan included in the NaTonal Plan( 80s) Technical Survey ( 89~ 91) HSR ConstrucTon ( 92) 1 st stage open(2004) - New line 238.6km - ExisTng line 171.2km 2 nd stage open(2010) km (New line 368.5km) - Under constructon (untl 2014) Seoul Cheonan Osong Daejeon Daegu Gyeongju Busan Legend Gyeongbu HSR Existing Line 6

7 4. Current Status 1) Railway Facility Size(2011) Track length : km Double track : % ElectrificaTon : % * Except urban railway Route Length Double Track ElectrificaTon ) Railway Speed 1900s 30Km/h : Steam locomotve 1950s 100km/h : Diesel locomotve 1980s 140km/h : Saemaeul train km/h : KTX(High Speed Train) km/h : KTX km/h : HEMU HEMU 430X Project Period : 6 Years ( 07.7~ 13.7) Max. speed : 430km/h Distributed Power System 7

8 Contents Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Korean Railway System Energy & CO² RducKon of High Speed Railway Socio- economic Impact of High Speed Railway Discussions

9 1. Plan for KTX Network (2020) Link between major cites within 90 minutes Access Tme to KTX statons within 30 minutes Benefit range from KTX : 84% of populaton, 82% of natonal territory <Plan for KTX network> 9

10 2. Impact Assessment methodology Time & cost saving : can be directly measured by number of passengers Energy consumpton & emissions : integrated approach with other transpo rt modes for specific origin- destnaton - - Energy consumpton & emission unit per person- km of different mode s (car, conventonal railway, air, high speed railway) MulTply of unit with number of traffic by each modes Socio- economic benefit : regional study of before & aler Business actvity Land price PopulaTon change 10

11 3. Direct Effect : Travel Time & Cost KTX Auto Express Bus Airplane Seoul ~ Daegu Time (min) rato Cost (Won) rato 106 (1.00) 42,950 (1.00) 228 (2.15) 64,100 (1.49) 240 (2.26) 21,950 (0.51) - - Seoul ~ Busan Time (min) rato Cost (Won) rato 150 (1.00) 53,200 (1.00) 302 (2.01) 89,100 (1.67) 317 (2.11) 29,250 (0.55) 164 (1 09) 78,500 (1.48) 11

12 4. Energy consumpkon : French Data DescripKon Liter/person- km Regular inter- city railway TGV Car Min Max Bus Air Min Max Source: ADEME, France 12

13 1. Energy consumpkon : during 2004~2008 DescripKon Amount Seoul- Busan Min. 813 Max. 1,243 Seoul- Daegu Min. 123 Max. 232 Seoul- Gwangju Min. 218 Max. 332 Seoul- Mokpo Min. 29 Max. 39 total Min. 1,184 Max. 1,848 Unit : million Liter 13

14 1. Energy consumpkon : during 2004~2008 DescripKon Amount Seoul- Busan Min. 1,260 Max. 1,927 Seoul- Daegu Min. 191 Max. 361 Seoul- Gwangju Min. 339 Max. 516 Seoul- Mokpo Min. 45 Max. 60 total Min. 1,835 Max. 2,865 - Oil price is assumed as 1.5 USD per liter Unit : Million USD 14

15 2. Energy consumpkon : Korean Data DescripKon Liter/person- km RaKo with KTX Car Inter- city Bus KTX Inter- city Railway (Diesel) CommuTng Railway (Diesel) Metro Source: Korea Railway Corporation,

16 2. Energy consumpkon : during 2004~2008 DescripKon Amount Unit : million Liter Seoul- Busan 647 Seoul- Daegu 152 Seoul- Gwangju 142 Seoul- Mokpo 8 total

17 2. Energy consumpkon : during 2004~2008 DescripKon Amount Unit : Million USD Seoul- Busan 931 Seoul- Daegu 219 Seoul- Gwangju 205 Seoul- Mokpo 12 total 1,368 - Oil price is assumed as 1.5 USD per liter 17

18 3. CO² ReducKon : French Data DescripKon Kg/person- km Regular inter- city railway TGV Car Min Max Bus Air Min Max Source: ADEME, France 18

19 3. CO² ReducKon : during 2004~2008 Unit : thousand ton DescripKon Amount Seoul- Busan Min. 226 Max. 364 Seoul- Daegu Min. 3 Max. 38 Seoul- Gwangju Min. 63 Max. 101 Seoul- Mokpo Min. 6 Max. 9 total Min. 298 Max

20 3. CO² ReducKon : during 2004~2008 DescripKon Amount Seoul- Busan Min. 8 Max. 13 Seoul- Daegu Min. 0.1 Max. 1 Seoul- Gwangju Min. 2 Max. 4 Seoul- Mokpo Min. 0.2 Max. 0.3 total Min. 10 Max Value of CO² is eskmated as 35 USD per ton. Unit : Million USD 20

21 4. CO² ReducKon : Korean Data DescripKon g/person- km RaKo with KTX Car Inter- city Bus KTX Inter- city Railway (Diesel) CommuTng Railway (Diesel) Metro Source: Korea Railway Corporation,

22 4. CO² ReducKon : during 2004~2008 DescripKon Unit : Thousand ton Amount Seoul- Busan 270 Seoul- Daegu Seoul- Gwangju 136 Seoul- Mokpo 13 total

23 4. CO² ReducKon : during 2004~2008 DescripKon Amount Unit : Million USD Seoul- Busan 9 Seoul- Daegu + 8 Seoul- Gwangju 5 Seoul- Mokpo 1 total 7 - Oil price is assumed as 1.5 USD per liter 23

24 5. Environmental Cost ReducKon : Korean Data DescripKon Korean won/person- km Car 45.4 Inter- city Bus KTX 0.0 Inter- city Railway (Diesel) AviaTon Source : Ministry of Environment,

25 5. Environmental Cost ReducKon : during 2004~2008 DescripKon Unit : Million USD Amount Seoul- Busan 362 Seoul- Daegu 92 Seoul- Gwangju 87 Seoul- Mokpo 12 total

26 Contents Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Korean Railway System Energy & CO² reduckon of High Speed Railway Socio- economic Impact of High Speed Railway Discussions

27 1. Inter- city transport mode share feature Seoul - Daegu - Airplane: 19% 0% - KTX: 59.7% Seoul - Busan - Airplane: 49 19% - KTX: 64.5% 27

28 1. Transport hub of the KTX stakon l KTX East- Daegu staton - Transport hub of the surrounding region (Seoul~Daegu traffic volume: 7.6 million 11.9 million) - Transferable distance 60~70km Seoul Seoul 7.6 million Trip 11.9 million Trip Pohang Pohang Daegu Gyeongsan Daegu Gyeongsan <2003> <2008> 28

29 2. Relief of populakon concentrakon to capital region l Decreasing emigraton from the KTX staton- based cites Busan(12,000 persons 9,000 persons), Daegu(7,400 persons 6,000 persons) l Decreasing trend of populaton concentraton in capital region (Daegu Busan) 2,523 3,085 6,801 11, ,617 8, ,009 7, <Annual net-migration (2000~2004) > Source: Statistics Korea <Annual net-migration(2004~2008) > 29

30 3. New economic ackvikes using KTX : ConvenKon & Commerce l ConvenTon and commerce around KTX StaTon MeeKng Frequency 11,447 No. of Users 341,534 4, 년 년 2005 년 년 Rent Profit(mil. won) 2,500 2,000 2,098 1,500 1, ,245 1,511 1, Source: Korail 년 년 2007 년 2008 년 년 2010 년 2011 년 30

31 4. New economic ackvikes using KTX : InternaKonal conference Share of InternaTonal Seminar of Busan : 6.4%(2003) 20.9%(2010) 2003 년 2006 년 2010 년 343 경부축 Gyoungbu KTX line 호남축 Honam KTX line 서울 Seoul Daejeon 대전 Daegu 대구부산 Busan Gwangju 광주 SOURCE : MICE Industry Statistics, KOREA TOURISM ORGANIZATION, Annually 31

32 5. New Economic AcKviKes : whole sale and retail industry l Rapid increase of Busan city s sale l Straw effect to Seoul is not clear Wholesale & R etail 대구 Daegu 경북 Gyeongbuk (Number) (Daegu VS. Gyeon gbuk) EducaKon Servi ce (Gwangju VS. Geo nnam) Enterprise Serv 광주 Gwangju 대전 Daejeon 전남 Geonnam (Number) (Number) 충남 Chungnam ice 1) (Daejun VS. Chun gnam) Source: The Korea Transport Institute, 2011 KTX Economic Development Study,

33 6. Change of Land Price in KTX stakon- based CiKes l KTX staton- based cites: two Tmes more than natonal growth rate l New KTX staton- based cites: five Tmes more than existng staton- based (unit : %) NaKonal growth rate Large cikes Small and medium ci Kes Average ExisKng sta Kon KTX ba sed- cik es New stakon Opened in Expected o pening in Source: Korea Real Estate Research Institute (2009) 33

34 Contents Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Korean Railway System Energy & CO² reduckon of High Speed Railway Socio- economic Impact of High Speed Railway Discussions

35 1. Railway can reduce energy consumpkon & CO² l RelaTvely low energy consumpton & CO² emission than car or air 2. Railway system is relakvely expensive l Financial/technical resource l Feasibility study(?) 3. Do we have impact assessment model for railway? l Current B/C model can not include wide impact of railway system l Time/cost saving, energy/environmental impact 35

36 Thank you.