The Century of Cities
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- Wilfred Casey
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2 The Century of Cities 80% of the world economic output is concentrated in cities. Until 2025, the share of urban population will increase from 50% to 60%. Economic growth and urban sprawl mean more and longer trips in cities.
3 Urban mobility in 2025 Number of trips in cities worldwide will increase by 50%. In OECD countries: +12%. In non OECD countries: +75%.
4 Risk of further gridlock Traffic on urban roads will increase by 60%. More gridlock and less space for urban life. Billions of extra hours lost in congestion Vicious circle of automobile dependence
5 What makes a city attractive? In all city rankings, quality of mobility appears as one the top factors of city attractiveness. -> We need more balanced mobility patterns. Public transport operators and authorities can help meet the challenge of increased urban mobility. We need to make the economic case for public transport.
6 The effects of investing in public transport Direct effect Indirect effect Induced effect Catalyst effect According to studies in Switzerland and the USA, investment in public transport generates value that exceeds the initial investment up to 3 to 4 times.
7 Wider Economic Benefits Benefits of increased connectivity on the productivity of the local economy. Used for economic appraisal of Crossrail project in London. By including the Wider Economic Benefits of the project the benefit to cost ratio increased from around 2:1 to 4:1.
8 Strong impact on job creation Research in Austria, Canada and the US has shown that, per amount invested, investing in public transport creates from 50% to 100% as many jobs as investment in other areas, such as roads.
9 A very diverse and innovative supply chain Assembling one public transport vehicle involves hundreds of different companies. It mobilizes different disciplines from engineering, to IT, to ergonomics. It supports different types of businesses from large corporations to start ups. Public transport is a driver of innovation, which is a key factor of economic growth.
10 Cost of mobility (% GDP) vs. modal split
11 Lower energy bill for transport If the share of public transport doubles by 2025, urban transport energy consumption will remain almost stable. This will relieve pressure on energy markets and keep the urban transport energy bill in check.
12 Less fatalities due to urban transport If share of public transport doubles, urban traffic fatalities will decrease by 15% (60,000 less fatalities per year than in 2005). Compared to the business as usual scenario, we can save about 180,000 lives per year in 2025.
13 Better health through more physical activity With 70% of trips made by public transport, walking and cycling, daily mobility will provide 30 min. of physical exercise. Less risk of coronary heart disease and obesity (-50%), less hypertension risk (-30%). (source WHO)
14 How to support public transport
15 Providing lifestyle services Provision of high quality mobility services Diversification of services: giving choice to citizens and targeting new segments
16 Providing life style services Good practices: Singapore: Premium bus services at higher fares Tokyo: Development of retail and businesses in and around stations Seoul: Distance based pricing, smart card supports other applications (fee)
17 A new business culture Favourable business and regulatory framework to develop competences, innovation and entrepreneurship. Change corporate culture towards fully customer oriented services.
18 Visionary integrated urban policies Coordinating public transport and urban development Integrated mobility management
19 Visionary integrated urban policies Good practices: Copenhagen: Joint development of new neighbourhood and metro line. Thames gateway: Regeneration of former industrial area with bus network as backbone.
20 Smart demand management Influence citizens mobility behavior towards the use of sustainable transport modes.
21 Smart demand management Good practices: Oslo: Road toll used to support public transport operation costs (8%) and capital investment London: Congestion charging supports upgrade of bus network Perth: Workplace parking levy supports public transport operation costs (5%)
22 Conclusion Public transport is key to the attractiveness of cities The economic case for public transport in strong and essential to mobilize required funding
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