Doubling the Market Share of Public Transport Worldwide by 2025: A Smart Future for Cities

Transcription

1 Doubling the Market Share of Public Transport Worldwide by 2025: A Smart Future for Cities Dawn CHUI International Association of Public Transport (UITP)

2 Contents 1. What would happen in 2025 if current urban mobility trends prevailed? 2. The benefits of doubling the market share of public transport worldwide by Adequate measures to support the development of public transport and opportunities for Korea.

3 Methodology Projections computed through Mobility Model developed by the International Energy Agency. Based on demographic, economic and technology factors. Global messages and specific analysis for world regions and selected countries.

4 Urban transport today (2005) Daily trips in urban areas (billions) World s urban population is 3.2 billion. About 7.5 billion trips made in urban areas every day Public transport Non motorised Private motorised Public transport represents about 16% of those trips. Its market share in Korea is higher than average Modal split of urban trips (%) Public transport Non motorised Private motorised

5 Urban population in 2025 World's urban population (millions) Urban population will increase from 3.2 to 4.5 billion. The share of urban population will increase from 50% to 60%. Contrasted situations and fast growth in emerging economies. Eurasia N. America Lat. America Europe MENA Asia Pacific SS Africa ,000 1,500 2,000 2,

6 Business as usual scenario Expansion of private mobility Urbanisation and economic development mean new challenges for cities. More trips in urban areas (+50% in 2025) Growing share of private motorised mobility Decreasing share of sustainable modes (including public transport) Daily trips in urban areas (billions) (BAU) Public transport Non motorised Private motorised Modal split of urban trips (%) (BAU) Public transport Non motorised Private motorised

7 Business as usual scenario More congestion Traffic on urban roads will increase. More gridlock and less space for urban life. Billions extra hours lost every day. Vicious circle of automobile dependence

8 Business as usual scenario More energy consumption Urban transport energy consumption worldwide will increase by 30%. Reaching 890 million tons oil equivalent per year in Oil based fuels will still make above 95% of the energy mix Urban transport energy consumption (million tons oil equivalent) (BAU)

9 Business as usual scenario More GHG emissions GHG emissions from urban transport will increase by 30%. Reaching 3 billion tons CO2 equivalent per year in This is in total contradiction with efforts to limit global warming to 2 C Urban transport GHG emissions (billion tons CO2 equivalent) Buses, trams, metros, pedestrians, cyclists (BAU)

10 Business as usual scenario More traffic fatalities The number of urban traffic fatalities will increase by 30%. Reaching 500,000 deaths per year in This is twice the number of victims of the Indian Ocean Tsunami in Urban traffic fatalities (thousands) (BAU)

11 Another future is possible for our cities We need more balanced mobility patterns. Public transport operators and authorities can help meet the challenge of increased urban mobility.

12 Our solution: PTx2 We can decouple the growth of urban mobility from the growth of its societal and environmental cost (= green growth) by: Doubling the modal share of public transport Keeping stable the share of walking and cycling Daily trips in urban areas (billions) (BAU) 2025 (PTx2) Public transport Non motorised Private motorised Modal split of urban trips (%) (BAU) 2025 (PTx2) Public transport Non motorised Private motorised

13 PTx2 scenario Relieving pressure on energy demand Urban transport energy consumption will remain almost stable. Compared to the business as usual scenario, we can save 170 million tons of oil equivalent per year in At today s price, $140 billion saved p.a Urban transport energy consumption (million tons oil equivalent) (BAU) 2025 (PTx2)

14 PTx2 scenario Controlling GHG emissions GHG emissions from urban transport will remain almost stable. Compared to the business as usual scenario, we can avoid about 550 million tons CO2 equivalent per year in Urban transport GHG emissions (billion tons CO2 equivalent) (BAU) 2025 (PTx2)

15 PTx2 scenario Saving human lives Urban traffic fatalities will decrease by 15% (60,000 less fatalities per year than in 2005). Compared to the business as usual scenario, we can save about 180,000 lives per year in Urban traffic fatalities (thousands) (BAU) 2025 (PTx2)

16 PTx2 scenario Keeping citizens healthy With 70% of trips made by public transport, walking and cycling, daily mobility will provide 30 min. of physical exercise. Less risk of coronary heart disease and obesity ( 50%), less hypertension risk ( 30%). (source WHO)

17 Making PTx2 a reality Malaysia MRT a key component of Greater Kuala Lumpur / Klang Valley NKEA MRT plays a crucial role in realization of the targets of Greater Kuala Lumpur / Klang Valley NKEA, which is to make the city Top 20 most liveable cities by 2020 Source: Towards a world class public transport system for Malaysia, Shahril Mokhtar, Prasarana, PTI July/August 2011

18 Making PTx2 a reality Singapore Doubling rail network by 2020 Source: Land Transport Masterplan, Land Transport Authority Singapore, March 2008

19 Making PTx2 a reality Set of mutually reinforcing policies and measures: Providing lifestyle services Developing a new business culture Securing adequate and stable funding Integrating public transport and other urban policies Smart mobility management Korea could capitalize on its pioneer experience in many of these policy areas.

20 Life style services Diversification of services: giving choice to citizens and targeting new segments. Provision of high quality mobility services.

21 A new business culture Favourable business and regulatory framework to develop competences, innovation and entrepreneurship. Change corporate culture towards fully customer oriented services.

22 Adequate and stable funding streams Developing revenue strategies and optimizing fare policies. Earmarking charges based on polluter pays and beneficiary pays principles to support public transport. Developing reciprocal understanding with asset managers and asset owners.

23 Visionary integrated urban policies Coordinating public transport and urban development Integrated mobility management

24 Smart demand management Influence citizens mobility behavior towards the use of sustainable transport modes.

25 Thank you for your attention!