AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY ANALYSIS

2 Table of Contents Table of Contents...1 USDOT Conformity Determination...2 Executive Summary...3 Introduction History Regulations Governing Conformity Determinations Travel Demand Model Validation Modeling Process HELPViz Land Use Model Population Synthesis Tour and Stop Generation Tour-Based Modal Choice Truck Model Model Conversion Factors MOVES Inputs MOVES Outputs Interagency Consultation Air Quality Analysis Exempt Projects Air Quality Analysis Exempt Projects Appendix A Project List Appendix B Projects

3 USDOT Conformity Determination This page to be replaced with the USDOT Conformity Determination 2

4 Executive Summary The Air Quality Conformity Determination for Michiana on the Move: 2040 Transportation Plan was performed in order to meet federal regulations from the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21 st Century Act (MAP-21). As a maintenance area for the 1997 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone, the Michiana Area Council of Governments (MACOG) must demonstrate that its transportation plans will conform to air quality emission budgets for the ozone precursor pollutants of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) that are established by the State Implementation Plan (SIP). Air quality conformity for Michiana on the Move was determined based on the analysis included in this report. As required, an emissions analysis was performed for each of the study years of this plan and it was determined that the emissions of VOCs and NOx would not exceed budgets established by the SIP, if the transportation projects are implemented as proposed by the 2040 Transportation Plan. Thus, the MACOG Michiana on the Move: 2040 Transportation Plan conforms to the Clean Air Act and the State Implementation Plan. Table E.1: VOC Emissions Analysis and SIP Budget Comparison (tons per day) Year VOC Emissions SIP Budget Passed By N/A N/A N/A N/A Table E.2: NOx Emissions Analysis and SIP Budget Comparison (tons per day) Year NOx Emissions SIP Budget Passed By N/A N/A N/A N/A The conformity determination was coordinated with stakeholder and regulatory agencies through an interagency consultation process to formally deliberate any issues, with the complete project list for the transportation plan distributed to the Interagency Consultation Group (ICG). In an effort to be proactive in working with our partners, the Indiana MPO Council has also scheduled occasional Air Quality Conformity meetings. IDEM, FHWA, INDOT and USEPA have been invited to attend the meetings, to discuss timing, modeling parameters, and related conformity issues. IDEM, INDOT and FHWA have been in regular attendance. The Indiana Traffic Modelers group (this includes IDEM, INDOT and FHWA representatives) also meets at various times during the year to provide an open forum to discuss the modeling and conformity process, 3

5 modeling parameters, and as a mechanism for assuring that the partners have more than adequate opportunity to participate in the travel demand forecasting process. 4

6 Introduction As part of the joint regulatory requirements of the Clean Air Act, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) require MACOG to conduct an air quality conformity analysis for the Transportation Plan. This is triggered by the fact that both and Counties were identified as being in non-attainment of the 1997 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. The region was designated as a maintenance area for the 1997 standard in 2004 and is in attainment of the current 2008 NAAQS 8-hour standard for ozone. 1.1 History Under the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1977, and Counties in Indiana and Berrien and Cass Counties in Michigan were designated as non-attainment areas for ozone. In December of 1978, an initial plan for controlling hydrocarbon emissions was submitted to the Indiana State Board of Health and the Michigan Department of Natural Resources for inclusion in the Indiana and Michigan SIPs. EPA required this area to submit a revised SIP, which indicated attainment by A Part "D" amendment as required by the EPA (Reasonably Available Control Technology, RACT approval) was completed. Final approval was awarded February 10, The EPA again cited the State of Indiana for the ozone non-attainment areas of and St. Joseph Counties in Indiana. The Director of the Environmental Sanitation Department and a representative of the Chamber of Commerce met with State and Federal EPA officials November 30, 1989, to further discuss the direction the two areas would be required to follow in order to comply with the standards. Although no incidences of ozone, hydro-carbon, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, or PM-10 particulate matter, had occurred from 1989 to 1991 in and Counties, the area was still designated as a non-attainment area for ozone under an "operation of the law" clause written into the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA). The MACOG Policy Board endorsed the 2015 Long Range Plan Update on October 20, The and area was re-designated as a maintenance area November 30, Once again the and Counties were re-designated as basic non-attainment areas for the stricter 8-hour ozone standard. This occurred in June of All plans, programs and projects must be reviewed and analyzed to assure that they conform and do not exceed the emissions inventory, which is part of the SIP budget, or worsen the regions air quality. 5

7 2.0 Regulations Governing Conformity Determinations Federal Regulations for Metropolitan Planning in 23 CFR (Code of Federal Regulations) Part 450 require that federally funded highway and transit projects are included in a conforming plan and Transportation Program (TIP). 40 CFR Part 93 amended August 15, 1997, outlines the requirements for making conformity determinations under Subpart A. Applicable requirements are listed below. 1. The Transportation Plan must specifically describe the transportation system envisioned for certain future years, which are called horizon years. The horizon years may be no more than 10 years apart. The first horizon year may not be more than 10 years from the base year used to validate the travel demand model. If the attainment year is in the time span of the Transportation Plan, the attainment year must be a horizon year. The last horizon year must be the last year of the Transportation Plan s forecast year. The base year for validation of the travel demand model is Section 3.0 Travel Demand Model Validation, contains documentation on the validation of the travel demand model to the 2010 base year. The base and horizon years used in developing the conformity analysis of the MACOG 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan are: 2004: The base year for the air quality determination 2010: The validated base year for the transportation network 2020: Proposed analysis year within 5-years of the conformity determination 2030: Year selected to be no more than 10-years between horizon years 2040: Final horizon year of the Transportation Plan 2. The Transportation Plan will quantify and document the demographic and employment factors influencing the expected transportation demand; and the highway and transit system shall be described in terms of the regionally significant additions or modifications to the existing transportation network, which the transportation plan envisions to be operational in the horizon years. A regional household travel survey was conducted in the fall of 2013 for the Michiana Area Council of Governments by RSG. The purpose of the survey was to better understand the travel behavior of residents and university students in and counties to support MACOG s on-going transportation planning efforts and the update of the their travel forecasting and analysis tools. 6

8 Over 500 households and 650 college students from six local universities participated in the study. Participants were recruited through a combination of mail, , and phone calls. Surveys were then completed online or with the assistance of an operator by phone. The survey sample was combined with data from over 150 households that participated in the National Household Travel Survey conducted in Two computer software programs, TransCAD and MOVES2014 were used to determine the combined emissions for and Counties. TransCAD, a travel demand forecasting application provides vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and link free flow speeds for each horizon year model based on the collected socio-economic data. MOVES2014 then provides the emission factors, which will be used to determine whether the emissions generated are above or below the region s emissions budget. The highway and transit systems are detailed as part of the 2040 Transportation Plan. The MACOG model does not employ modal split, as the VMT generated from transit ridership is less than the models estimated margin of error. As a result, an accurate representation of transit trips in the model cannot be accomplished. 3. The Transportation Plan must be financially reasonable and the TIP must be fiscally constrained consistent with the U.S. DOT s metropolitan planning regulations at 23 CFR part 450 in order to be found in conformity. The Transportation Plan contains a section on financial analysis, which demonstrates that the plan is financially reasonable. Cost information from the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) and other jurisdictions have, for the most part, not been identified for horizon year projects; therefore assumptions have been made for conformity purposes. 4. The conformity determination must be based on the latest emission estimation model available. The EPA s Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) was used during the development of this analysis. The Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) developed a post-processing tool for applying emissions rates developed in MOVES. The post processor makes use of emissions rates files developed by MOVES based on each scenario. These files are: Link Table: contains data from the TDM that occurs on the highway network Intrazonal Table: contains data on travel not on the highway network Rate per Distance: captures running exhaust, break wear, and tire wear Rate per Vehicle: captures start and idle exhaust Rate per Profile: captures evaporative emissions when vehicles are stationary The Link Table and the Intrazonal Table are created by MACOG s travel demand model. The Rate per Distance, Rate per Vehicle, and Rate per Profile files are exported from the MOVES2014 output to a comma delimited text (CSV) format. The generated rates were produced in 7

9 consultation with the area s ICG. More details on these variables can be found in section 4.0 MOVES Inputs. The outputs used for the conformity analysis from the MOVES model include Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) and Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) emission factors for each of the functional classes. These outputs are based on the default inputs to MOVES and all of the inputs listed in section 4.0 MOVES Inputs. The emission factors were multiplied by the corresponding VMT for each functional classification and added to determine the total emissions. The compiled outputs are included in section 5.0 MOVES Outputs, which shows the total emissions estimated for each model network year. 5. The MPO must make the conformity determination according to the interagency consultation procedures required in 40 CFR Parts 51 and 93 (sections and ), and according to the public involvement procedures established by the MPO in compliance with 23 CFR Part 450. MACOG in conjunction with its air quality partners held interagency consultation meetings to discuss the methodology being used to update the State Implementation Plan emissions budgets with the MOVES model and to receive guidance on various issues. The consultation included representatives from MACOG, IDEM, EPA, INDOT, and FHWA. A draft conformity analysis was also made available for review prior to final adoption by the MACOG Policy Board. The conformity analysis was made available for public comment from March 9, 2015 through April 8, No comments were received regarding the conformity demonstration or analysis. 6. The Transportation Plan must provide for the timely implementation of Traffic Control Measures (TCM) from the applicable State Implementation Plan (SIP). Nothing in the plan may interfere with the implementation of any TCM in the applicable implementation plan. The SIP provides a partial list of available TCM s in the Maintenance Plan for Ozone Attainment for or Counties. 7. The Transportation Plan must be consistent with the motor vehicle emissions budget in the applicable State Implementation Plan (SIP). The SIP sets the motor vehicle emission budget pursuant to the Federal Register Direct Final Rule of August 25, The motor vehicle emission budgets for and Counties are in tons of pollutant per day. Table 2.1: State Implementation Plan Budget (tons per day) Year VOC Budget NOx Budget The 2020 budget, which was approved by the EPA, is used for determining the conformity of the 2020 and later horizon years. 8

10 8. The regional emissions analysis shall estimate emissions from the entire transportation system, including all regionally significant projects contained in the Transportation Plan and all other regionally significant highway and transit projects expected in the non-attainment area in the time frame of the Transportation Plan. The analysis estimates emissions of both volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) as ozone precursors. and Counties are in attainment for carbon monoxide (CO) emissions and conformity with the budget is not required; no analysis of CO emissions was completed. Table 2.2: VOC Emissions Analysis and SIP Budget Comparison (tons per day) Year VOC Emissions SIP Budget Passed By N/A N/A N/A N/A Table 2.3: NOx Emissions Analysis and SIP Budget Comparison (tons per day) Year NOx Emissions SIP Budget Passed By N/A N/A N/A N/A Since the emissions budget test is passed for each analysis year, the Michiana on the Move: 2040 Transportation Plan is found to conform to the State Implementation Plan and therefore complies with the Clean Air Act and other applicable federal and state requirements. 9. The emissions analysis methodology shall meet the requirement of section : (a) Regional emissions analysis for the Transportation Plan shall include all regionally significant projects expected in the maintenance area. Projects that are not regionally significant are not required to be explicitly modeled, but VMT from such projects must be estimated in accordance with reasonable professional practices. The affects of TCM s and similar projects that are not regionally significant may also be estimated in accordance with reasonable professional practices. (b) For TCM s demonstrating a quantifiable emission reduction benefit, the emissions analysis may include that emissions reduction credit. (c) For areas with a Transportation Plan that meets the content requirements of section , the emissions analysis shall be performed for each horizon year. The emissions analysis methodology meets the requirement of section

11 (a) The transportation model includes all regionally significant projects that are planned to occur over the life of this plan. In addition, the VMT from projects not specifically modeled, have been accounted for with the validation of the travel demand model output. (b) There are no required TCM s for the South Bend/ 8-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area. There are also no additional credits being sought from the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) program funded projects that are continually being implemented in and St. Joseph Counties. (c) The emissions analysis was performed for each horizon year; the results were then summarized in a spreadsheet and included in section 5.0 MOVES Outputs. 10

12 3.0 Travel Demand Model Validation The following analysis was performed to determine the validity of the Travel Demand Model (TDM) being used for the 2040 Transportation Plan. In addition, the methodology was used to convert the TDM outputs into inputs for the air quality model, for purposes of the Conformity Determination. 3.1 Modeling Process For the 2040 Transportation Plan, MACOG contracted with Resource Systems Group (RSG) to conduct a major update of the travel demand forecasting model. A hybrid model, the new design blends aspects of traditional four-step models and activity-based models. The model can be described as trip-based, as it produces aggregate trip table matrices of trips between origins and destinations rather than disaggregate records detailing individual travelers activities. However, it can also be described as tour-based since the travel patterns predicted can be mathematically proven to be consistent with tours and all travel is segmented within the model by types of tours, eliminating the non-home-based trips problematic in traditional four-step models. Unlike traditional four-step models which are entirely aggregate and activity-based models which are entirely disaggregated, the hybrid model includes both aggregate and disaggregate component models. Despite the inclusion of disaggregate choice models, there are no random number draws or Monte Carlo simulations included in the TDM. As a result, the model outputs are reproducible, unlike the results of activity-based or other simulation models. Any difference between two model runs is directly attributable to differences in their inputs as with traditional trip-based models. Whereas, in simulation models, multiple model runs are necessary when comparing alternatives to ensure that the difference between model runs results from differences in the alternative inputs rather than from differences in the random numbers drawn for each run. 3.2 HELPViz Land Use Model HELPViz was developed by RSG as part of the Sustainable Evansville Area Coalition s Regional Plan for Sustainable Development. Using the Land-Based Classification System s activity-based codes, 2002 aerial photography and 2013 oblique photography was used to describe land use changes in the urbanized areas of the region over a 10-year period which was then used to adapt HELPViz to the Michiana area. This land use model offers sensitivity to land use zoning, building codes and infrastructure facilities such as the transportation network, water and sewer utilities. HELPViz allocates the future population and employment regional totals to the TAZs based on build out capacities, the transportation network and infrastructure facilities. HELPViz is based on a nested logit model framework and uses information at both the TAZ and parcel levels. 11

13 3.3 Population Synthesis The MACOG TDM generates a disaggregate synthetic population of households based on the demographic information associated with the traffic analysis zones. For each zone, individual households are created. Each household has a total number of persons, workers, students, and a binary variable indicating whether any of the household members is over the age of 65. Each household also has an income variable that indicates whether the household belongs to the lower (under $35,000/year), middle ($35,000 - $75,000/year) or upper (over $75,000/year) income category, each of which comprises approximately a third of the households in the region. The number of vehicles available to each household is modeled separately, after the population synthesis, based on these variables and other variables describing the zone in which the household is located. The synthetic population is developed in two steps. First, a set of ordered nested logit models predict for each variable (such as household size, number of workers, etc ) the number of households which have each level of that variable (one person, two persons, etc ; zero workers, one worker, two workers, etc ). Second, iterative proportional fitting is used to develop the synthetic population based on a seed population of households from the household travel survey and the marginal distributions for each variable provided by the logit models. Unlike the procedures used to develop synthetic populations in many activity-based models, this procedure is entirely deterministic and does not introduce randomness or simulation error into the model using any random draws. This is possible since the model is allowed to produce more or less individual households that exist in the real population, creating consistency instead by weighting those households so that their weighted sum is the total actual number of households in each zone. 3.4 Tour and Stop Generation The new TDM generates tours and stops rather than trips. The number of tours and stops of each type is estimated using multiple regression models applied to the disaggregated synthetic population of households. First, the number of tours, of each type, is estimated for each household. Then, for each stop type, the ratio of stops per tour is modeled and the total number of stops produced by multiplying this ratio by the number of tours. The simple framework adopted here offers improved sensitivity over traditional models. The number of work tours was mostly a simple function of the number of workers. Vehicle ownership, the presence of seniors and household income offered some additional explanatory power. The presence of seniors in a household made work tours slightly less frequent, perhaps because senior workers are less likely to work full time. The number of work stops is calculated for each household and allocated to income groups based on the household s income. The number of work stops per work tour is relatively constant. However, the number of work stops per work tour is slightly higher for high income workers, probably reflecting greater frequency of eating out for lunch which results in two work stops (before and after lunch). Accessibility also makes work stops marginally more frequent 12

14 because it implies that commute times are shorter, so it is easier to get back and forth between home and work, such as going home for lunch, returning to work after dinner, work activities on weekends, etc The number of other stops per work tour is significantly increased by the number of household students from workers stopping to drop off students on the way to work and decreases with the number of non-workers in the household who can drop off the students instead. Here also, we see income and vehicle ownership increasing other stops on work tours, again perhaps increased lunch stops out. The number of (primary and secondary) school tours is largely a simple function of the number of students in a household. The number of school tours does increase with accessibility, like with work stops, because it is easier to get back and forth between home and school. Income also marginally increases the number of school tours with more students, perhaps indicating that higher income households are more likely to send their children to different schools or that their high school students drive separately and their primary school children are picked up/dropped off on another tour. The number of school stops per school tour is essentially constant at just over one, although very slight increases result from higher income and accessibility. Other stops on school tours were also largely constant, but were somewhat more common for students from households with higher income. The increase related to higher income students may have more money to spend, hence may make more shopping stops, etc The number of other (non-work) tours made by a household is most influenced by the number of non-workers in the household: more non-workers generate more non-work tours. However, the non-work tours are also increased albeit less by workers and are more frequent for households with seniors and more vehicles. Non-work tours also decrease slightly as gas prices rise. The number of short (fewer than 30 minutes) maintenance stops per other tour was largely constant, but somewhat higher for households with more people and income. The number of long (over 30 minutes) maintenance stops was also fairly constant and increased with the number of vehicles available; however, it also decreased with the number of students, who may curtail long shopping activities. The number of discretionary stops decreased slightly with the presence of seniors and increased with income and students with cars. 3.5 Tour-Based Modal Choice In the new model, as in activity-based models, the mode of travel is developed in two stages: tour mode choice and trip mode choice. After tours are generated, they are assigned a primary mode by tour mode choice models. Then, after the spatial distribution of stops creates trips, individual trips are assigned a mode based on the primary mode of the tour in trip mode choice models. 13

15 The MACOG model makes use of four primary tour modes: Private Automobile Public Transit Walk / Bike School Bus The primary mode for a tour is determined by a simple set of definitions or rules. Any tour containing a school bus trip is a school bus tour. Any other (non-school bus) tour containing a public transit trip is a public transit tour. Any other (non-transit) tour containing a private automobile trip is an automobile tour. Any other tour, which contains only walk or bike trips, is a non-motorized tour. The incorporation of behaviorally sensitive tour mode choice models in the TDM represents significant added value as compared to the previous model in which mode shares were fixed and totally insensitive to demographics, levels-of-service, or any other policy variables. The new model produces, in addition to automobile trips by occupancy class, the system-level transit ridership, the number of transit trips generated by each residence zone, and the total regional number of daily walk/bike trips. 3.6 Truck Model Based on the method recommended in the Quick Response Freight Manual II, a commercial vehicle model was developed for predicting trips for four-tire commercial vehicles, single unit (SU) trucks, and multiple unit (MU) trucks. The model uses a four-step process. These steps are trip generation, distribution, choice of time of day and trip assignment. In addition, the special trip generators of inter-region and inter-modal trucks were added in the model to better replicate the current inter-region and inter-modal truck movements. The inputs to trip generation are the number of employees and the number of households by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ). These rates were obtained by adjusting the original generation rates in the Quick Response Freight Manual. To replicate the current truck traffic condition in the study area, the rates for four-tire commercial vehicles were further adjusted by a factor of The external-internal (EI) and internal-external (IE) truck trips were classified as a distinct type of trip in order to better replicate the in-balance direction truck flows at different time periods. Before the trip distribution, the trip origins and destinations were balanced for all TAZs and external stations for the following types of trips: EI-IE SU truck trips of all TAZs and external stations EI-IE MU truck trips of all TAZs and external stations Internal-to-Internal (II) SU truck trips of all TAZs Internal-to-Internal (II) MU truck trips of all TAZs Internal-to-Internal (II) 4-tire commercial vehicle trips of all TAZs 14

16 For four-tire commercial vehicles, it is assumed that the normal EI-IE trip attractions are proportional to the trip destinations. At the beginning, destinations are used as the normal EI-IE trip attractions and the balancing process scales to the total adjusted attractions. For single-unit and multi-unit trucks, a destination choice model was applied separately to internal & external trips. The destinations chosen in these models (the sum over all origins) are scaled to the total number of trips produced in generation. This vector is then used as both the productions and attractions for a doubly-constrained gravity model to distribute the truck trips. 3.7 Model Conversion Factors No model conversion factors have been used for the emissions modeling. The steps used to determine the total emissions have remained consistent with the prior practices used when the 1-hour ozone budget was created. The MACOG travel demand model has followed the air quality conformity requirements listed in subpart C. 15

17 4.0 MOVES Inputs The following tables represent the data used as inputs to MOVES2014 when the defaults are not utilized. Copies of the input files used to test for conformity are available upon request. Table 4.1: MOVES Inputs Summary Inputs Link Table Intrazonal Table Rate per Distance Rate per Vehicle Rate per Profile Hourly VMT Fraction HPMS Fractions Vehicle Class Distribution Description Table of road segments from the travel demand model that consists of the free flow times, link capacity, and the flow of traffic on the road segment. Table of traffic analysis zones from the travel demand model that contains the average length of trips within the zone as well as an estimate of the daily number of trips occurring within the zone. Emission rates tables generated by MOVES2014 and combined with the link and intrazonal tables using the INDOT Air Quality Post-Processor. The hourly VMT fraction table was provided by INDOT and breaks down the fraction of VMT for each hour of the day by the MOVES2014 source type and road type. The HPMS fractions table was provided by INDOT and breaks down the distribution of the HPMS vehicle types by the FHWA functional classification of the road segment. The vehicle class distribution table was provided by INDOT and breaks down the distribution of HPMS vehicle types by MOVES road types. 16

18 5.0 MOVES Outputs The following tables represent the emissions analyses performed for the Conformity Determination on the 2040 Transportation Plan. The TransCAD travel demand model was run to determine the amount of vehicle miles of travel for each horizon year of the road based on the project list. Table 5.1: Vehicle Miles Traveled Functional Class (Rural) Interstate 814, , ,180 1,189,122 Other Principal Arterial 299, , , ,801 Minor Arterial 765, , ,385 1,083,631 Major Collector 1,047,458 1,192,693 1,302,885 1,445,000 Minor Collector 111, , , ,201 Local way 69,074 60,540 66,233 72,376 Functional Class (Urban) Interstate 446, , , ,710 Freeways and Expressways 903,447 1,008,642 1,056,942 1,209,476 Other Principal Arterial 2,557,817 2,758,641 2,892,048 3,056,499 Minor Arterial 1,574,218 1,723,141 1,839,427 1,980,643 Collector 609, , , ,632 Local way 165, , , ,209 9,363,654 10,304,518 11,018,173 12,202,300 The MOVES2014 emissions model computed the emission factors for volatile organic compounds (VOC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO). Copies of the outputs from the INDOT Air Quality Post Processor are available upon request. The total emissions generated for VOC and NOx by functional classification of roadway are compared against the allowable budget set by the State Implementation Plan (SIP). The emissions budget test was passed for each future analysis year, and therefore the 2040 Transportation Plan conforms to the Clean Air Act and the State Implementation Plan. 17

19 Table 5.2: 2004 Network Emissions Analysis Functional Class (Rural) VOC Emissions (Tons/Day) NOx Emissions (Tons/Day) Interstate Other Principal Arterial Minor Arterial Major Collector Minor Collector Local way Functional Class (Urban) Interstate Freeways and Expressways Other Principal Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Local way Total Emissions Running Non-Running Functional Class (Rural) Table 5.3: 2010 Vehicle Miles Traveled and Emissions Analysis Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Emissions (Tons/Day) NOx Emissions (Tons/Day) Interstate 814, Other Principal Arterial 299, Minor Arterial 765, Major Collector 1,047, Minor Collector 111, Local way 69, Functional Class (Urban) Interstate 446, Freeways and Expressways 903, Other Principal Arterial 2,557, Minor Arterial 1,574, Collector 609, Local way 165, Total Emissions Running Non-Running ,363,

20 Functional Class (Rural) Table 5.4: 2020 Vehicle Miles Traveled and Emissions Analysis Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Emissions (Tons/Day) NOx Emissions (Tons/Day) Interstate 900, Other Principal Arterial 325, Minor Arterial 853, Major Collector 1,192, Minor Collector 129, Local way 60, Functional Class (Urban) Interstate 490, Freeways and Expressways 1,008, Other Principal Arterial 2,758, Minor Arterial 1,723, Collector 681, Local way 181, Total Emissions Running Non-Running ,304, Functional Class (Rural) Table 5.5: 2030 Vehicle Miles Traveled and Emissions Analysis Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Emissions (Tons/Day) NOx Emissions (Tons/Day) Interstate 990, Other Principal Arterial 349, Minor Arterial 941, Major Collector 1,302, Minor Collector 135, Local way 66, Functional Class (Urban) Interstate 520, Freeways and Expressways 1,056, Other Principal Arterial 2,892, Minor Arterial 1,839, Collector 727, Local way 194, Total Emissions Running Non-Running ,018,

21 Table 5.6: 2040 Vehicle Miles Traveled and Emissions Analysis Functional Class (Rural) Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Emissions (Tons/Day) NOx Emissions (Tons/Day) Interstate 1,189, Other Principal Arterial 402, Minor Arterial 1,083, Major Collector 1,445, Minor Collector 149, Local way 72, Functional Class (Urban) Interstate 616, Freeways and Expressways 1,209, Other Principal Arterial 3,056, Minor Arterial 1,980, Collector 785, Local way 211, Total Emissions Running Non-Running ,202,

22 6.0 Interagency Consultation The Michiana Area Council of Governments provided opportunity for interagency consultation on the Air Quality Analysis of the 2040 Transportation Plan. The interagency consultation process began with the identification of the necessary stakeholder agencies that required involvement. The list of participants included representatives from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT), Indiana Department of Environment Management (IDEM), Federal Transit Administration (FTA), and MACOG. Initial consultation was held via and discussed the model years for analysis 2004, 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040 as well as the availability of updated vehicle registration data from the Bureau of Motor Vehicles. A conference call was held February 24, 2015 to finalize the model documentation and discuss the resulting analysis prior to the start of the public comment period. 21

23 7.0 Air Quality Analysis Exempt Projects The roadway project list can be found in the 2040 Transportation Plan. There are two categories that a project can fall into: exempt, and non-exempt. Following are definitions of each category: Exempt: there are five types of projects that are assumed to be exempt from the air quality analysis because they do not create new capacity, these are: Bridge Replacements: a bridge is being replaced in-kind because of a deteriorating structure, without adding new lanes. s: minor improvements at isolated intersections such as safety enhancements and realignment. Pedestrian s: enhancements such as sidewalks and crosswalks. Geometric s: roadway segments with deficiencies in lane width, horizontal/vertical curvature or other safety issues that are being improved. No new travel lanes are being constructed. Railroad Grade Separation: as railroads are accounted for in the model by calibrating travel time speeds to traffic counts, the benefits of an underpass or overpass cannot be reasonably measured. Non-Exempt: these projects are included in the Air Quality Analysis and travel demandforecasting model and are generally comprised of added capacity projects or new road construction projects greater than a mile in length. 22

24 Appendix A Project List 23

25 Sponsor Open to Traffic By Project Route Beginning Termini Ending Termini Type of Work 2015 Main Street Indiana Avenue Prairie Street 2015 Main Street Lusher Avenue Indiana Avenue 2015 Prairie Street Main Street Middlebury Street 2015 Prairie Street Middlebury Street Division Street 2015 Prairie Street Norfolk Southern Railroad (#522504S) 2015 CR 17 CR 142 CR CR 17 CR 30 CR CR 17 CR CR 17 CR CR 17 CR 32 (Leedy Ditch) CR CR 17 CR 38 CR 32 (Leedy Ditch) 2015 CR 3 CR 32 INDOT 2015 SR 19 CR 38 INDOT 2015 INDOT 2015 SR 19 (Nappanee Street) SR 19 (Nappanee Street) Lusher Avenue Rainbow Bend Boulevard Rainbow Bend Boulevard Beardsley Avenue INDOT 2015 US 33 College Street Monroe Street INDOT 2015 US 33 CR 40 INDOT 2015 US 33 INDOT 2015 US 33 Kercher (CR 38) US 20 (Southern Ramp) Kercher (CR 38) College Avenue (CR 36) CR nd Street Harrison Street Jefferson Street rd Street Harrison Street Jefferson Street 2020 Bristol Street (CR 10) Jeanwood Drive Pebblestone Lane (City Limits) 2020 Goshen Avenue Jackson Boulevard Middlebury Street 2020 Goshen Avenue Middlebury Street Toledo 2020 Jackson Boulevard Goshen Avenue 2020 Lexington Avenue Bypass SR Lusher Avenue 17th Street Oakland Avenue 2020 Main Street Beardsley Avenue 2020 Old US 20 CR 3 Lexington Avenue 2020 CR 38 CR 17 CR 21 Grade Separation New Grade Separation Grade Separation New New Center Turn Lane Center Turn Lane Center Turn Lane Center Turn Lane Center Turn Lane Length (Miles)

26 Sponsor Open to Traffic By 2020 Goshen 2020 Goshen 2020 Goshen 2020 Goshen 2020 Project Route Beginning Termini Ending Termini Type of Work CR 38 (Kercher ) Dierdorff (CR 27) Kercher (CR 38) Kercher (CR 38) Waterford Mills Parkway CR 21 CR 40 Norfolk Southern Railroad (#533510B) Violett SR 15 Violet Kercher (CR 38) Dierdorff (CR 27) Norfolk Southern Railroad (#533510B) Regent Street Goshen 2020 Wilden Avenue Rock Run Creek 6th Street INDOT 2020 SR 19 CR 52 (Woodview Drive) INDOT 2020 SR 19 SR 119 (CR 44) INDOT 2020 US 33 Pike Street Monroe Street 2025 Benham Avenue Mishawaka (CR 20) 2025 Osolo (CR 11) Bristol Street CR 6 Hively Avenue 2025 Prairie Street Hively Avenue Lusher Avenue 2025 Prairie Street Indiana Avenue Main Street 2025 Prairie Street Lusher Avenue Indiana Avenue 2025 Toledo Goshen Avenue Industrial Parkway 2025 Toledo Industrial Parkway Rowe Street 2025 Toledo Rowe Street CR CR 13 (Lewis Street) Norfolk Southern Railroad (#510015X) 2025 CR 13 (Lewis Street) US 33 Linden Drive 2025 CR 17 CR 46 CR CR 6 Ash CR CR 6 CR Old US 20 Ash CR Old US 20 CR 1 CR 3 Goshen 2025 College Avenue Goshen 2025 CR 40 Goshen 2025 Goshen 2025 Kercher (CR 38) Waterford Mills Parkway Norfolk Southern Railroad (#510048K) Dierdorff (CR 27) Dierdorff (CR 27) John Weaver Parkway Winsted Avenue US 33 US 33 CR 40 SR 15 Goshen 2025 Wilden Avenue Current Terminus Middlebury Street Nappanee 2025 Lincoln Street US 6 Williams Street 2030 Hively Avenue Norfolk Southern Railroad (#510012C) New New Center Turn Lane Grade Separation Center Turn Lane Center Turn Lane New New New Grade Separation Length (Miles)

27 Sponsor Open to Traffic By Project Route Beginning Termini Ending Termini Type of Work 2030 Indiana Avenue Moyer Avenue Toledo 2030 CR 10 (Bristol Street) Pebbleston Lane CR CR 17 US 6 CR Johnson Street (CR 9) Bristol Street (CR 10) CR CR 142 CR 17 SR CR 40 CR 17 CR CR 40 CR 21 Violet 2040 CR 40 Violet SR 15 Length (Miles)

28 Appendix B Projects 27

29 Sponsor Open to Traffic By INDOT 2015 INDOT 2015 INDOT 2015 INDOT 2015 INDOT 2015 INDOT 2015 Project Route Beginning Termini Ending Termini Type of Work SR 23 (Edwardsburg Highway) SR 23 (Edwardsburg Highway) SR 23 (South Bend Avenue) SR 331 (Capital Avenue) SR 331 (Capital Avenue) SR 331 (Capital Avenue) Adams Brick Chalfont Street Norfolk Southern Railroad (#522526S) 2.7 Miles North of SR 331 Adams Twyckenham Drive Twelfth Street North of SR 933 US 20 Twelfth Street Grade Separation New New Length (Miles) INDOT 2015 US 31 Kern Interchange INDOT 2015 US 31 Marshall New US 20 Line 10.6 INDOT 2015 US 31 SR 4 (Pierceton ) Interchange Mishawaka th Street SR 331 Blackberry (Harrison ) 1.3 Mishawaka 2015 Catalpa Avenue Current Terminus Filbert New 0.3 Mishawaka 2015 Evergreen Fir SR 331 New 0.7 Mishawaka 2015 Fir Cleveland SR Mishawaka 2015 Fir University Park Drive Cleveland 0.3 Mishawaka 2015 Fir (Byrkit McKinley Highway Day Street) 1.3 South Bend 2015 Fellows Street Ireland Chippewa 0.4 South Bend 2015 Lafayette Street Western Avenue Marion Street One-Way to Two-Way 0.7 Conversion South Bend 2015 Lincolnway Commerce Drive Lafayette Boulevard Reconfiguration 3.0 South Bend 2015 Madison Street Marion Street Lafayette Boulevard One-Way to Two-Way Conversion 0.2 South Bend 2015 Marion Street One-Way to Dr. Martin Luther Lafayette Boulevard Two-Way King Jr. Drive Conversion 0.2 South Bend 2015 Miami Street Kern Jackson South Bend 2015 Michigan Street Colfax Avenue LaSalle Avenue Reconfiguration 0.1 South Bend 2015 Western Avenue Chapel Lane Summit Drive Reconfiguration 0.9 South Bend 2015 Western Avenue Summit Drive Williams Street Reconfiguration 3.1 South Bend 2015 William Street Western Avenue Washington Street One-Way to Two-Way Conversion 0.3 South Bend New 2015 Lincolnway West US 20 Mayflower Airport Cleveland Ash 2015 Douglas Juniper (Northern Roundabout)

30 Sponsor Open to Traffic By Mishawaka 2020 Mishawaka Douglas Project Route Beginning Termini Ending Termini Type of Work Juniper (Southern Roundabout) 2015 Douglas SR 933 Juniper 2015 Fir Cleveland 2015 Gumwood Brick Michigan State Line 2015 Gumwood Mishawaka City Limits 2015 Ironwood Auten 12th Street (Harrison ) 12th Street (Harrison ) Mishawaka 2020 McKinley Highway Byrkit Street (Fir ) Union Street Byrkit Street (Fir ) Brick Downey Avenue Byrkit Street (Fir ) Home Street Mishawaka 2020 McKinley Highway Home Street Elder South Bend 2020 Auten Adams Mayflower South Bend 2020 Auten Mayflower Portage South Bend 2020 Bendix Drive Lathrop Street I-80/I-90 (Indiana Toll ) South Bend 2020 Ironwood Jackson South of US 20 South Bend 2020 Ironwood South Bend City Limits South Bend 2020 Jefferson Boulevard Wayne Street South Bend 2020 Lincolnway West Marion Street Jackson South Bend 2020 Main Street (SR 933) Chippewa Avenue Marion Street South Bend 2020 McKinley Highway Ironwood Drive Manchester Drive South Bend 2020 Michigan Street Chippewa Avenue Navarre Street South Bend 2020 Michigan Street Chippewa Avenue South Bend 2020 Michigan Street Ireland South Bend 2020 Michigan Street Monroe Street Western Avenue South Bend 2020 South Bend 2020 South Bend 2020 Michigan Street (SR 933) Michigan Street (SR 933) Michigan Street (SR 933) Bartlett Avenue Marion Street Western Avenue South Bend 2020 Olive Street Sample Street South Bend 2020 Olive Street SR 23 (Prairie Avenue) Tucker Drive South Bend 2020 Olive Street Tucker Drive Ford Street New New New One-Way to Two-Way Conversion One-Way to Two-Way Conversion Reconfiguration Length (Miles)

31 Sponsor Open to Traffic By Project Route Beginning Termini Ending Termini Type of Work South Bend 2020 Sample Street Bendix Drive Grant Street Mishawaka 2025 Mishawaka Ash Edison / CR Ash McKinley Avenue 2020 Cleveland River SR Fir Brick Byrkit Street (Fir ) Byrkit Street (Fir ) Dragoon Trail Jefferson Boulevard Mishawaka 2025 McKinley Highway Division Street Mishawaka 2025 McKinley Highway Grand Trunk Western Railroad Harrison McKinley Highway Byrkit Street (Fir ) Mishawaka 2025 Union Street Dragoon Trail 12th Street Mishawaka 2025 Mishawaka 2025 Union Street (Bremen Highway) Union Street (Church Street) North of US 20 Dragoon Trail 12th Street SR 933 South Bend 2025 Bendix Drive Lincolnway Lathrop Street South Bend 2025 Ireland Ironwood Hazel South Bend 2025 Ironwood Drive Corby Boulevard / Rockne Drive South Bend 2025 Ironwood Drive Jefferson Boulevard South Bend 2025 Ironwood Drive Mishawaka Avenue South Bend 2025 Kern Miami Street Ironwood South Bend 2025 Sheridan Street Lincolnway Progress Drive South Bend 2025 Twyckenham Drive Corby Boulevard South Bend 2025 Twyckenham Drive Jefferson Boulevard South Bend 2025 Twyckenham Drive McKinley Avenue South Bend 2025 Twyckenham Drive Mishawaka Avenue 2025 Ash Vistula / Indiana Avenue 2025 Bittersweet Anderson SR Douglas Ironwood SR Douglas Ironwood 2025 Douglas Ivy Ironwood 2025 Fir Adams 2025 Ironwood Adams 2025 Ironwood Auten Michigan State Line Grade Separation Length (Miles)

32 Sponsor Open to Traffic By Project Route Beginning Termini Ending Termini Type of Work 2025 Ironwood Cleveland Auten 2025 Ironwood Kern South Bend City Limits 2025 McKinley Avenue Birch Ash 2025 Pierce Miami Highway SR Pierce US 31 Miami Highway South Bend 2030 Adams Olive Mayflower South Bend 2030 Hickory Edison Helper South Bend 2030 Hickory Helper Douglas South Bend 2030 Olive Brick Adams 2030 Ash Jefferson McKinley Highway 2030 Ash McKinley Highway Edison 2030 Ash SR Ash Vistula / Indiana Avenue 2030 Cleveland Fir SR Cleveland Grand Trunk Western Railroad (#283372X) Vistula / Indiana Avenue Jefferson 2035 Auten Juniper Ironwood 2035 Auten SR 933 Juniper 2035 Bittersweet McKinley Highway Day 2035 Cleveland SR 331 Bittersweet 2035 Day Fir SR Day Grand Trunk Western Railroad 2035 Day SR 331 Bittersweet 2035 Portage Maple Auten Mishawaka th Street Union Street Laurel Street Mishawaka 2040 Fulmer Current Terminus Clover Mishawaka 2040 Logan Street Dragoon Trail SR 933 Mishawaka 2040 Logan Street Mishawaka Avenue Jefferson Boulevard Mishawaka 2040 Logan Street Pleasant Street Mishawaka Avenue Mishawaka 2040 Went Avenue McKinley Highway Catalpa South Bend 2040 Sample Street Chapin Street New New New Grade Separation Grade Separation New New New Length (Miles)

33 Sponsor Open to Traffic By Project Route Beginning Termini Ending Termini Type of Work 2040 Ash Douglas Cleveland 2040 Ash Edison Douglas 2040 Auten Portage River 2040 Auten River SR Bittersweet Cleveland I-80/90 Toll 2040 Bittersweet Day Douglas 2040 Bittersweet Douglas Cleveland 2040 Bittersweet I-80/90 Toll Anderson 2040 Cleveland Bittersweet Ash 2040 Douglas Fir SR Douglas SR 331 Bittersweet 2040 Elm Kern Jackson 2040 Portage Auten Michigan State Line Length (Miles)