Learning from Experience Plug-In Vehicles, Usage and Infrastructure

Transcription

1 Learning from Experience Plug-In Vehicles, Usage and Infrastructure April 18, 2017 Gil Tal

2 Dr. Tom Turrentine, Director Dahlia Garas, Program Director Dr. Ken Kurani, Consumer Studies Dr. Gil Tal, PEV Markets, Travel Behavior Dr. Mike Nicholas, PEV Use Patterns & Infrastructure Needs Dr. Alan Jenn, PEV Regulations & Incentive Structures in USA Dr. Scott Hardman, Europe PEV Markets Dr. Angela Sanguinetti, Energy Feedback Systems 20+ affiliated Graduate and Undergraduate Students 4 Research Staff, programmers The Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle (PH&EV) Research Center launched in early The Center collaborates closely with California utilities, automakers, regulators, and other research institutions on research aimed at developing a sustainable market for plug-in vehicles.

3 SUPPORTERS

4 PH&EV Center Roll-out & ramp-up research Studying the interaction of policy, technology, energy systems and consumer culture Dr. Gil Tal Dr. Alan Jenn Dr. Mike Nicholas US PEV buyer studies US car buyers & PEVs Dr. Ken Kurani Dr. Turrentine Dr. Mike Nicholas Dr. Gil Tal PEV household use patterns 4 The world PEV market Dr. Tom Turrentine Dr. Gil Tal Dr. Scott Hardman

5 PH&EV Center Outreach Activities Collaborate with cities and states in key US markets on strategies for increasing ZEV adoption International collaboration and policy analysis with other institutions collecting and analyzing market and use data Workshops in 2016 in Sweden, Quebec, and China Workshops in 2017 in UK and Germany Policy Briefings will be released in Fall 2017 International data and policy collaborations Policy and regulation response Deep Dives and partner workshops Hosted ZEV Regulation workshop, Sept Growing the PEV Market in a Variety of Policy Scenarios, March 2017 Research-based Policy Briefs Host Deep Dive Research Findings workshops One-on-One project update meetings with sponsors

6 PH&EV Center Data Collection 24,000 New car Buyers surveys US states Focus groups Interviews 27,000 Electric car buyer surveys US states, China, Germany Used PEV buyers Focus groups and Interviews PEV and ICE on road data collection OBD data 264+ vehicles over a year GPS data 54,000 PEV vehicles over 2.5 years from 2 OEMs 4,000 ICE Vehicles second by second dataset for California US Infrastructure Charging data ,000,000 Level 2 charging events 1,300,000 DC fast charging events Vehicle reported charging events

7 Global PEV Sales by Country New Zealand Czech Republic Romania 700,000 Slovenia Poland Estonia 600,000 Ukraine Ireland Australia 500,000 Iceland Finland Portugal 400,000 Austria Denmark Italy 300,000 Spain Switzerland Belguim 200,000 Canada Sweden Germany France 100,000 Netherlands Norway 0 YR 2012 YR 2013 YR 2014 YR 2015 YR 2016 Japan USA China

8 Second generation PHEVs: miles range, SUV/Crossover type vehicles, more power mixed with short range European PHEVs 2017 Toyota Prius Prime 2017 Volkswagen Passat GTE 2017 Chevrolet Volt 2017 Audi A3 etron 2017 Chrysler Pacifica

9 Lithium pack prices per A plausible California scenario based on laws, incentives & history of previous technology rollouts Curve based on rollout of HEVs in Japan & California st generation policy, vehicles, innovators & infrastructure 200,000 PEVs % 2 nd generation batteries, vehicles, followers 500,000 PEVs % of market 3 rd generation: batteries, vehicles, core market 800,000 PEVS 2025 Early core market: 6-15% 4 th generation 3-4 million??? 2030 California 2025 ZEV goal = 15% / 1.5 million BEVS, FCV & PHEVs Main market 15-25%

10 Innovators from 1 st Generation market will be buying some portion of the 2 nd Generation market perhaps 100,000 1 st generation 1-3 % of market, 200,000 PEVs 2 nd generation 3-5% of market,500,000 new PEVs And a growing used PEV market 150,000 PEV innovator households Early adopters also called Fast Followers 2010 Innovators 2015 Innovators 2 nd, 3 rd PEV purchases Used PEVs

11 Total California fleet California shifts from PHEVs as Transitional Technology to Not picking a winner million 20 million 2015 ICEVs 2030 BEVs PHEVs FCEVs 10 million California Air Resources Board

12 EV Market Perspectives Market Demand Enforcing Policy EV Sales PEV Supply ICE limiting Policies

13 NEW CAR BUYERS AND PEV BUYERS: PEV BUYERS ARE COMING BACK FOR SECONDS ICE Buyers PEV Buyers 4% of HH purchased 2+ cars = 28+% of new cars 30% 25% 21% bought 1 car = 72% of new car purchases 75% of the households did not purchase new car in the last 3 years 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Newst PEV model year First PEV Had a PEV Have 2+ PEVs 4% of the households are responsible for almost one third of the market over the last 3 years Up to 15% of PEV buyers are on their second PEV

14 Have you considered a vehicle that runs on electricity for your household? Kurani 2016

15 New Car Buyers Perspectives Most households with negative ZEV valuation have yet to ask themselves, Is a PEV right for my household? The importance of awareness, knowledge, Promotional policies that mitigate up-front costs still leave the newtechnology averse with an expensive unknown. The effects of incentives Among those who did not design a PEV or FCEV is very low. Those with positive ZEV valuations have multiple motivations, Everyone highly motivated by fuel cost savings is highly motivated by something else, too. Despite low awareness, knowledge, experience, and prior consideration, 24% to 39% of respondents design a PEV or FCEV as their next new vehicle. Kurani 2016

16 Vehicle Choice Without the Federal Tax Credit

17 The Impact of $1000 price Change on the Potential Market 100%=16 million vehicles

18 What Will a PHEV Driver Buy Without the Green Sticker? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BMW i3 REX Chevrolet Volt Ford C-Max Energi Ford Fusion Energi Toyota Prius Plug In Total phev BEV ICE Not to Buy

19 BEV to PEV Ratio (N=100,211)

20 Reg. tax Registration tax Reg. tax Price comparison 3-series sedan models. Total price incl. registration tax 80,000 70,000 69,882 70,849 64,527 60,000 50,000 46,434 49,286 47,277 48,503 45,366 46,065 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, iA xdrive 320dA 330e PHEV Price w/o tax ,300 32,000 42,500 Total power 185 kw 140 kw 185 kw CO g/km 104 g/km 49 g/km Page 20

21 Overlapping Incentives No Need of any Incentives 22%-50% Monetary Incentives 25%-50% Non monetary Incentives (HOV) 5%-20% Public infrastructure 2%-8%

22 Charging 22

23 Most Charging can be done at Home Longer Range Vehicles Have More Level 2 100% Home Charging Infrastructure arch 2013 Source:ARB CVRP Survey 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Plug-in Prius Volt Leaf Level 1 Level 2 Level 2 March % 80% Home Charging Level 2015 Level 1 Source: 2015 evmt HH Study Recruitment Survey 60% 40% 20% 0% Level 1 Level 2 23

24 Events per 100 Vehicles Everyone Likes Free Charging Workplace Charging Events per 100 Vehicles by Electric Range (Survey) March 2015 Source: 2015 evmt HH Study Recruitment Survey PHEVs BEVs Vehicle Range Free 1x Home 2x Home Teslas will almost never Plug in if more than home Free Charging Double Lowest Home Rate Log. (Same as Lowest Home Price) Same as Lowest Home Price Log. (Free Charging) Log. (Double Lowest Home Rate) 24

25 What do Users Report about congestion? About 20%. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Days/Week Unable to Charge Because of Congestion

26 Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded If public charging is free we need about 60 chargers per 100 PEVs If public charging is congested nobody goes there anymore Especially not those who need it in order to go back home. The only one who can use it are does who can charge at home anyway. Paid public charging may reduce market share but increase the usability of BEVs.

27 Because Low-Range PHEVs Provide Little Cost-Benefit, They are More Likely to Never Be Plugged in, even for free Percent Not Plugging In 35% Not Plugging in Regularly (4 or Fewer Events) Percent Not Plugging In 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Used New New 0% PHEV Vehicle Range PHEV Vehicle Range 2015 Survey 2016 Survey 2016 Used Survey Power (2015 Survey) Power (2016 Survey) Power (2016 Used Survey) Source: Nicholas, Michael and Tal Gil (Forthcoming), January You Can t Take It With You: Examining The Role Of Phev Range In The Decision To Plug In. In Transportation Research Board. Washington DC. 27

28 Hours Charging time and Cost Saving Hours charging on L1 fast Hours charging on L2 3.3 cost savings per charging event $3.50 $3.00 $ $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $ $-

29 Fast Charging by BEV80-BEV90 is Currently Close to Home Analyzed 1.2 Million Sessions From Evgo Calculated the Euclidean distance from home zip code to charge event Differentiated from Home to free Median Distance from home for free charger is 5 miles Median Distance from home to paid charger is 10 miles Free Charging Paid Charging 29

30 PG&E Scenario 2025 Home dominates in urban areas (10 AM peak) Work centers have work based demand (noon and 6pm peak) Corridors draw from far away (5-8 pm peak) Corridors are the most speculative. Depends on confidence of availability and increase in battery Size 30

31 Conclusions Awareness Vehicle sales/ availability Education Dependable infrastructure Price Home charging Incentives

32 Thank you Questions? Gil Tal Publications =tal-gil