Wind in our Sails. The coming of Europe s offshore wind energy industry. Arapogianni Athanasia research officer European Wind Energy Association

Transcription

1 Wind in our Sails The coming of Europe s offshore wind energy industry Arapogianni Athanasia research officer European Wind Energy Association Trondheim,

2 Outline 1. Offshore wind industry End of Offshore wind industry in 2020 and Supply chain a) Wind turbines b) Substructures c) Grid connection d) Vessels e) Ports 4. Conclusions

3 Annual 2011 capacity : MW Cumulative capacity (end 2011): 3,813 MW (MW) Annual Cumulative

4 Share of new installed capacity in Europe in 2011 Belgium 19% (165 MW) Germany 6% (50 MW) Finland 0% Finland; 26 ; 1 % Ireland; 25 ; 1 % (2.3 Sweden; MW) 164 ; 4 % Belgium; 195 ; 5 % Norway; 2,3; 0 % Portugal; 2 ; 0 % Germany; 200 ; 5 % United Kingdom 52% (458 MW) Denmark 23% (207 MW) Netherlands; 247 ; 6 % UK; ; 55 % Denmark; 857 ; 23 %

5 Wind turbine manufacturers share in installations BARD; 85; 2 % WinWind; 54; 1 % GE; 36; 1 % Areva; 30; 1 % Other; 43; 1 % Repower; 182; 5 % Siemens; 2012; 53 % Vestas; 1371; 36 %

6 Substructure types Gravity Based Foundation; 286 ; 21 % Jacket; 30 ; 2 % Floating; 3 ; 0 % Tripile; 23 ; 2 % N/A; 6 ; 0 % Monopile; ; 75 %

7 2011 annual installation of offshore wind projects UK Germany Portugal Denmark Belgium Average distance to shore (km) Average water depth (m)

8 Total offshore wind market outlook Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2011 Total installed capacity of around 4,000 MW Meeting 0.4% of total EU electricity demand Annual installations of 1,000 MW Avoiding 9.9 Mt of CO 2 annually Total electricity production of 14.4 TWh Annual investments in wind turbines of 2.8 billion.

9 Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2011 Total installed capacity of 3,813 MW Meeting 0.4% of total EU electricity demand Annual installations of MW Avoiding 9.9 Mt of CO 2 annually Total electricity production of 14.4 TWh Annual investments in wind turbines of 2.8 billion.

10 Outline 1. Offshore wind industry End of Offshore wind industry in 2020 and Supply chain a) Wind turbines b) Substructures c) Grid connection d) Vessels e) Ports 4. Conclusions

11 Offshore wind to (MW) EWEA NREAP s

12 Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2020 Total installed capacity of 40,000 MW Meeting 4.2% of total EU electricity demand Annual installations of 6,900 MW Avoiding 102 Mt of CO 2 annually Total electricity production of 148 TWh Annual investments in offshore wind turbines of 10.4 billion Cumulative investments in offshore wind turbines of 65.9 billion in the period

13 MW 8 80 MW Annual 7,807 8,457 9,057 9,607 10,507 11, ,35 12,95 13,2 13,69 0 Cumulative 47,70 56,20 65,50 75,60 86,50 98,10 110,40 123,20 136,40 150,00

14 Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2030 Total installed capacity of 150,000 MW Annual installations of 13,700 MW Total electricity production of 562 TWh Meeting 13.9% of total EU electricity demand Avoiding 315 Mt of CO2 in 2030 Annual investments in offshore wind turbines of 17 billion in 2030 Cumulative investments of billion from 2021 to 2030

15 250 Planned Consented Under construction 200 Distance to shore (km) Water depth (m)

16 Outline 1. Offshore wind industry End of Offshore wind industry in 2020 and Supply chain a) Wind turbines b) Substructures c) Grid connection d) Vessels e) Ports 4. Conclusions

17 An offshore wind supply chain Wind turbine Manufacturers Structural fabricators Electrical suppliers Marine contractors Cable suppliers Cable installers EPCI contractors Port operators Example incumbent s Siemens, Vestas, REpower, Areva SIF, Smulders, Bladt, EEW, Weserwind, BiFAB, Aker ABB, Siemens Energy, Alstom Grid A2Sea, MPI, SHL, Geosea Nexans, Prysmian, ABB NKT, Scanrope Technip, CT Offshore, Global Marine, Visser&Smit Fluor, Van Oord, ABJV, MT Hojgaard, DEME Various Example new entrants BARD, GE, Doosan, Gamesa, Alstom, Nordex, Mitsubishi H&W, TAG, Tata, Hereema, ZPMC, Shinan, Fabricom C&G Fred Olsen, Beluga, Inwind, GOAH, Sea Jacks DRAKA, JDR Beluga Hochtief, Saipem, Technip, Subsea7 Various Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Legend: Ticks and crosses represent likelihood of positioning at relevant Level in the contractual hierarchy: Likely Possible Unlikely

18 Supply and demand for offshore wind turbine technology in Europe Demand / Supply Capacity (MW) Demand (EWEA) Total (pessimistic) Total (central) 1350 Total (optimistic) Firm capacity

19 Wind turbines trends Development of wind turbines especially for offshore wind Improving reliability and lowering down the cost of energy < 5MW, 28 % Announced new models European, 47% > 5MW, 72% Chinese, 32% Israel; 0% Japanese, 5% US, 8% Korean, 8%

20 Outline 1. Offshore wind industry End of Offshore wind industry in 2020 and Supply chain a) Wind turbines b) Substructures c) Grid connection d) Vessels e) Ports 4. Conclusions

21 Historic offshore wind turbine foundation market share (by year) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Monopile Gravity Based Structure Space-Frame

22 Outline 1. Offshore wind industry End of Offshore wind industry in 2020 and Supply chain a) Wind turbines b) Substructures c) Grid connection d) Vessels e) Ports 4. Conclusions

23 Analysis of supply and demand for HV subsea cables 8000 Demand Demand / Supply Capacity (MW) Limited amount of suppliers for HV subsea cables - Long lead times for new capacity

24 Outline 1. Offshore wind industry End of Offshore wind industry in 2020 and Supply chain a) Wind turbines b) Substructures c) Grid connection d) Vessels e) Ports 4. Conclusions

25 Projected offshore installation vessel supply and demand (vessels per annum) Main installation vessels (offshore wind) Demand - Repair Demand - Foundations Demand - Turbines Supply - firm capacity Supply - Low Case Supply - Mid Case Supply - High Case

26 Outline 1. Offshore wind industry End of Offshore wind industry in 2020 and Supply chain a) Wind turbines b) Substructures c) Grid connection d) Vessels e) Ports 4. Conclusions

27 Example of European ports for offshore wind construction

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29 Supply chain Wind in our Sails More details Supply chain is dynamic and responding to challenges through investments in innovation: Turbines Substructures Electrical infrastructure Vessels Ports Publications Reports

30 Conclusions The European Union leads the world in offshore wind power with almost 4,000MW already installed This major industrial development will bring a significant number of jobs and create development opportunities for European companies However, there are still challenges ahead and support is needed: Favorable national framework conditions: NREAPs, licensing and permitting procedures, maritime spatial planning, reinforcement of onshore networks Support from the EU: stable post-2020 legislative framework, offshore grid

31 Thank you