Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee Long Term Development of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure

Transcription

1 Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee Long Term Development of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure 1. Context: ENTSO-E, 10/20/40 year views, network codes 2. The 2012 TYNDP 3. New Infrastructure Priorities Regulation 4. Grid developments in the North Seas 5. E-Highway2050 Project 6. Conclusion Autumn Lecture Series November 2012, VUB EU Gas Pipelines and Electricity Grids in 2050 Dr. Mihai PAUN Network Development - ENTSO-E

2 ENTSO-E has significant role in delivering European energy and climate change objectives Key activities set out in Regulation 714/2009 (on cross-border electricity trade, part of the 3 rd IEM Package) Deliver network codes binding to all network users (through Comitology ) Deliver network plans European / regional view of system needs ( TYNDP ) Deliver crucial aspects of market integration ( market coupling ) R&D Plan (fully included in EEGI European Electricity Grid Initiative, part of the SET Plan) Through its members deliver the infrastructure to: enable markets to function, secure energy supply, meet climate change objectives through connecting RES 41 TSOs (among whom swissgrid) from 34 countries; 530 million people; 910 GW gen.; km transm. Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 2

3 ENTSO-E Organizational Structure Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 3

4 Drivers for grid development Sustainability More renewables far from loads New electricity uses (mobility with electricity, heat pumps...) Competitiveness / Market integration Optimal resources sharing More long distance transeuropean flows Security of Supply continuity of supply of remote/isolated areas Prevent large disturbances Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 4

5 What are the tools needed for infrastructure development? 1. The EC s Infrastructure Legislation! ü Transmission line permitting in <3 years with one-stop shops ü Transmission regulatory improvements for better financing ü The ENTSO-E TYNDPs with better and better cost-benefit methodologies as the basis for Projects of Common Interest 2. A 2030 and 2050 modular transmission plan for a Electricity Highways system ü A 3-year R&D study with TSOs + broad consortium for the definitive 2050 grid study ü Major changes in electricity generation and use è major changes in transmission ü Need to know soon whether to introduce a higher voltage level, of which kind ü Transmission becomes cheaper and more efficient (less losses, less land needed) at higher voltage 3. And: Public acceptance campaigns by MS governments for Electricity Highways, linking European infrastructure to their daily needs Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 5

6 TYNDP 2012: A stronger grid to answer major challenges 1/3 of present generation capacity to be replaced to meet demand in the coming decade +3% per year Peak load growth +1.7% per year Europe-wide km: Grid length +1.3% per year with RES triggering 80% of assets growth Renewable Energy Sources Integration: km Security of Supply: km Internal Energy Market: km Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 6

7 2020 Europe bottlenecks in the transmission system RES is triggering 80% of assets growth Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 7

8 With a robust and clear project assessment methodology Every project valuated against 9 criteria Grid transfer capability increase Social and economic welfare RES integration Improved security of supply Losses variation CO2 emissions variation Technical resilience Flexibility Social & environmental impact Costs +... MW Basis for further selection of Projects of Common Interest (in the new Infrastructure Regulation) + technical description + monitoring Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 8

9 2020 Europe 17% increase in infrastructure By end and beyond Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 9

10 2020 Europe - About 100 billion in investments 100 billion investment on grids /MWh in Europe over the 10-year period, 2% of the bulk power prices, less than 1% of the total endusers electricity bill billion billion Austria 1.1 Ireland 3.9 Belgium 1.9 Latvia 0.4 Bosnia- Herzegovina 0.0 Lithuania 0.7 Bulgaria 0.2 Luxembourg 0.3 Croatia 0.2 Montenegro 0.4 Czech Republic 1.7 Netherlands 3.3 Cyprus 0.0 Norway 6.5 Denmark 1.4 Poland 2.9 Estonia 0.3 Portugal 1.5 Finland 0.8 Romania 0.7 France 8.8 Serbia 0.2 FYROM 0.1 Slovakia 0.3 Germany 30.1 Slovenia 0.3 Greece 0.3 Spain 4.8 Hungary 0.1 Sweden 2.0 Iceland 0.0 Switzerland 1.7 Italy 7.1 United Kingdom 19.0 Total ENTSOE perimeter 104 Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 10

11 EC actions and its new Regulation on Priority Infrastructure Regulation on guidelines for the implementation of European energy infrastructure priorities Permitting streamline Identification of Projects of common interest(pcis) Cost benefit analysis Regulatory framework Incentives and financing Connecting Europe Facility Regulation = 9 bl. for transmission gas and electricity projects Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 11

12 TYNDP 2012 Pilot TYNDP based on a bottom up approach given time constraints Main differences with EU 20/20/20 scenario rely in RES objectives, especially in North Sea However all the projects are necessary to meet 20/20/20 objectives Main improvements for TYNDP 2012 Development of a top down scenario based on NREAP Build a comprehensive view of grid development in North Seas RGI Workshop Mihai PAUN 17/10/2011 Page 12

13 Grid developments in the North Seas For 2020 updated North Seas grid analysis shows that the links identified in the pilot TYNDP are sufficient Grid developments in North Sea First analysis shows that 2030 offshore wind capacities (80 GW) demand new thinking Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 13

14 Benefits of planning a coordinated and optimised integrated offshore grid - An early example of ENTSO-E s 2030 horizon work Maximising utilisation of the large scale assets required to connect the offshore wind farms Improved security of supply through flexible, controllable routes from offshore wind to demand centres/greater access to renewable generation Increased ability for cross-border trade and balancing/market integration Potential for reduced offshore infrastructure construction costs of about 10% Responsible use of limited natural and manufactured resources Improved standardisation and deliverability by reducing supply chain pressures But also: more complex than usually thought Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 14

15 Building the necessary infrastructure 3 main problems 1. Permitting and public acceptance Ø Slow and cumbersome permitting procedures the main obstacle for delivering investments Ø Public acceptance cannot be improved by TSOs alone One third of the transmission infrastructure is currently delayed. 2. Legislative implementation Some compatibility among the 27 MS energy policies Some stability in EU legislation - avoid new concepts becoming part of official documents 3. Attractive financing framework Ø real return in line with businesses of similar risk profiles Ø incentives for activities really managed by TSOs Ø legislation and regulation in line with 20 to 50 years assets Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 15

16 EU electricity HV landscape change EU electricity high voltage landscape will drastically change in the coming years: (Offshore grid, Electricity Highways ) Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 16

17 The STUDY e-highway 2050 Project 17

18 The Concept of Electricity Highways Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 18

19 e-highway2050 Project Project : Planning for European Electricity Highways to ensure the reliable delivery of renewable electricity and Pan-European market integration. ü The project should develop methods and tools to support the planning of these highways, based on various future power system scenarios, including for back-up and balancing generation and storage capacities, and develop options for a pan-european grid architecture under different scenarios, taking into account benefits, costs and risks for each. It should also address transition planning between now, 2020, 2030, 2040 and ü It should in addition clearly identify bottlenecks, needing additional research and development, including through demonstrators and in-situ testing. Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 19

20 e-highway2050 Project Scenario 1 General assumptions Climat (T C, wind, sun) Politics/regulation (nuclear, CO2, storage) Economy/ market (DR, storage) Demography Use of electricity (EV) Efficiency Connection with external Regions e- Highway 2050 Long term top down methodology for a pan European transmission planning Scenario Scenario N Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 20

21 ENTSO-E paves the way to e-highway250 Possibilities TYNDP NSCOGI Planned projects Envisaged projects Possible projects E-Highway2050 Time TSOs Plan EU Policies 2050 Energy Pathways (National analysis) FP7 Projects (Susplan, Realisegrid, Twenties, Optimate,..). Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 21

22 The Consortium 28 Direct Partners Research TSO TSO University Research TSO TSO TSO University Research University TSO TSO TSO TSO TSO TSO University TSO University8 TSO University Research TSO MS Represented through Associations TSO Name RTE AMPRION REN ELIA Swissgrid CEPS TERNA PSE op REE * APG* Energinet* Svenska* HTSO* EKC* Transelectrica* Name ENTSO- E EURELECTRIC EUROPACABLE EWEA T&D EUROPE Country FR DE PT BE CH CZ IT PL ES AT DK SE GR RO Association Country BE BE BE BE BE Research Institute Name Country SINTEF NO RSE IT ECN NL IPE PL University Name Country BRUNEL UK COMILLAS ES IST PT LEUVEN BE ENSIEL IT TU BERLIN DE Public Energy Ag Name Country DENA DE SME Name Country TECHNOFI FR CEP UK E3G BE POYRY UK Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 22

23 The Work Packages and the Leaders WP1 WP2 WP3 WP4 WP5 WP6 WP7 WP8 WP9 WP10 Leaders Sintef Amprion Technofi REN Elia Gr RSE DENA RTE ENTSO-E RTE Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 23

24 Conclusions 1. TYNDP % increase in grid needed by km 2. Europe-wide grid planning for the urgent 10-year needs, and for 2030 and 2050, is important but only one part: Network codes are also needed urgently, and so is the market integration (described in NCs) 3. The new methodologies based on the 3 rd IEM Package TYNDP, NCs provide a solid framework and foundation for further studies and further integration 4. ENTSO-E paves the way to e-highway 2050 Energy Infrastructure Tools needed to guarantee long term development Mihai PAUN Page 24

25 Thank you very much for your attention!