Europe Offshore Wind Supply Chain: Responding to Growth

Transcription

1 Europe Offshore Wind Supply Chain: Responding to Growth EWEA 2011 Brussels, 17 March 2011 Magnus Dale Analyst 2011 EMERGING ENERGY RESEARCH, LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is strictly forbidden. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it.

2 Offshore Wind A Glimpse of the Future 14,000 12,000 10,000 Europe Annual Offshore Wind Additions, Asia Pacific North America Europe MW 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: IHS Emerging Energy Research Accounting for the bulk of expected global offshore wind growth, Europe is set to add 72 GW between 2011 and 2025 Page 2

3 Europe Offshore Wind Market by Source: IHS Emerging Energy Research Country Expected growth (MW), UK 24,060 2 Germany 14,575 3 Sweden 5,610 4 Netherlands 5,250 5 Spain 4,450 6 Norway 3,200 7 Belgium 2,385 8 France 2,405 9 Ireland 2, Finland 1, Estonia 1, Denmark 1, Poland 1, Italy 1, Portugal Latvia Malta 95 While Mediterranean and Baltic markets are expected to emerge, combined UK and Germany additions exceed 36.8 GW or 53% of the region s growth over the forecast period Page 3

4 Wind Turbine OEM Manufacturing Presence Turbine OEMs with announced UK manufacturing facilities Aalborg * Brande Emden Rostock Bremerhaven Note: *Vestas has several facilities across Denmark. Source: OEMs, IHS Emerging Energy Research With Germany and Denmark currently functioning as offshore wind turbine manufacturing hubs, six OEMs have announced plans to establish manufacturing presence in the UK Page 4

5 Turbine Size Evolution and Product Roll-Out Overview Note: *Gamesa leads an R&D consortium developing the 15 MW Azimut turbine Source: OEMs, IHS Emerging Energy Research Turbine supply market will see range of new entrants in the mid-term employing larger machines and diversified technology Page 5

6 Offshore Wind Turbine Size Outlook Turbines installed 1,400 1,200 1, Europe Offshore Wind Turbine Installations by Turbine Segment, MW MW MW Source: Companies, IHS Emerging Energy Research While < 5 MW turbines will continue to account for the majority of near-term offshore wind installations, a shift in turbine size is expected by Page 6

7 Project Sea Depth and Distance from Shore Comparison 60 m. Select UK and Germany Offshore Wind Installations Under Development and Construction Water depth 50 m. 40 m. 30 m. 20 m. 10 m. Beatrice Alpha Ventus UK Round 3* BARD 1 3 GW 1.5 GW 0.3 GW Under Development / Construction Under development/ construction km. 40 km. 60 km. 80 km. 100 km. Distance from shore Operational Note: Circle area denotes project size (MW). Round 3 marker size not to scale. Operational non-uk/germany projects included. *Weighted average. Source: Developers, Crown Estate, IHS Emerging Energy Research Planned projects in the UK and Germany significantly boost water depth and distance-fromshore characteristics compared to operating wind installations across the region Page 7

8 Offshore Wind Installation Vessel Overview Europe Offshore Wind Installation Vessels by Sea Depth and Crane Lift Weight Limitation 90 m m. Sea Depth Limitation m. 0 3 X Operating vessel X Announced vessel Te 800 Te 1,200 Te 1,600 Te 2,000 Te Crane Weight Limitation Note: Circle size denotes number of installation vessels Source: Companies, IHS Emerging Energy Research 13 recently announced offshore wind installation vessels expand installation capacity of heavier turbines in deeper waters Page 8

9 Select Wind Turbine Plant and Vessel Construction Announcements ( ) Domain Company Market Estimated Value ( million) Announced Turbine manufacturing plant XEMC Darwind UK 115 August, 2010 Turbine manufacturing plant GE UK 110 March, 2010 Turbine manufacturing plant Siemens UK/Germany 90 March, 2010 Turbine manufacturing plant Mitsubishi UK/Japan Up to 112 February, 2010 Turbine manufacturing plant Clipper UK Not announced February, 2010 Blade plant, R&D center Gamesa UK 150 October, 2010 Foundation plant Corus UK 38 July, 2010 Vessel Beluga Hochtief Germany Not announced October, 2010 Vessel A2SEA Denmark 120 July, 2010 Vessel Seafox and Keppel UK 175 July, 2010 Vessel SeaEnergy and Ulstein UK/Norway N/A June, 2010 Vessel SeaJacks UK 94 June, 2010 Vessel* RWE and Daewoo UK/Gernany 200 June, 2010 Vessel Fred Olsen Windcarrier/Lamprell Norway/U.A.E 233 February, 2010 Note: *First vessel ordered in December, Source: Company announcements, IHS Emerging Energy Research Page 9

10 Select Transmission, R&D/Product Development Announcements ( ) Domain Company Market Estimated Value ( million) Announced Transmission Nexans/DONG Denmark 30 February, 2011 Transmission Siemens/Prysmian Germany 1000 January, 2011 Transmission Siemens/Prysmian Germany 500+ July, 2010 Transmission ABB Germany 550 July, 2010 Transmission ABB Germany 295 July, 2010 Transmission Siemens/Prysmian Germany 500+ June, 2010 Transmission Siemens UK 135 June, 2010 Substation Burntisland Fabrications UK 14 October, 2011 Partnership EDF EN/Alstom France N/A January, 2011 Partnership Beluga Hoctief/AREVA Germany/France N/A October, 2011 R+D/Product Development GE Sweden 50 July, 2010 R+D/Product Development GE Norway 75 July, 2010 R+D/Product Development GE Germany 105 July, 2010 R+D/Product Development Enova/Sway Norway 17 February, 2010 Source: Company announcements, IHS Emerging Energy Research Page 10

11 Summary Europe is facing unprecedented offshore wind growth with the market estimated to reach over 75 GW by 2025 Looking to capture this growth, new and existing offshore wind turbine OEMs expand production capacity, scale up size of offered machines and diversify technology Turbines rated 5 MW and above and direct drive technology are set to make up an increasing share of installed offshore capacity Along with upcoming surge in turbine installations and increase in turbine size, EPC remains a key constriction Cabling and transmission, workforce, financing and health and safety are also critical challenges to the growing offshore wind industry Supply chain announcements exceeding 4.7 billion over the last 12 months show offshore wind bottlenecks are being addressed Page 11

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