GREEN AVIATION. Kota Harinarayana DAE Raja Ramanna Fellow. New Delhi,6 2 10

Transcription

1 GREEN AVIATION Kota Harinarayana DAE Raja Ramanna Fellow New Delhi,6 2 10

2 Systems View of Air Transportation Air Transportation System Elements

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4 Emerging Asia Population Growth Half of the planet lives in emerging Asia Increase 750 million by 2030 to 4 billion The increase is greater than the total population of Europe Urban population will rapidly increase In China by 81% ( ) In India by 87% Source: John A Rogers, ADB(2006)

5 Emerging Asia Economic Growth All countries have policies to promote economic growth Essential for poverty alleviation But should occur consistent with the environment considerations 80% GDP growth is coming from Urban Areas Economic growth stimulates demand Leads to increasing motorization Faster than GDP at current levels Source: John A Rogers, ADB(2006)

6 Energy use for transport is projected to grow Energy Use = Number of Vehicles x Utilization Fuel Efficiency x Fuel Energy Intensity KJ units km/yr km/l KJ/L China: 6 9% per year India: 5 8 % per year Emerging Asia will demand 45% of the total world increase in oil use 6% per year for 20 years is over 300%!! Source: John A Rogers, ADB(2006)

7 INDIA: TRANSPORTATION GROWTH Mode Passengers Carried (million) Passenger Kilometers (Billion) Rail Road Air Total Modal break up of domestic passenger traffic (07 08)

8 Sectorial Emissions India Source: Robin Hickman et al, Delhi discussion workshop, 2008

9 Rank Country (Aggregate) Country CO2 emissions (in thousand metric tons of carbon) National per capita estimates CO2 emissions (in metric tons of carbon) [1] 1 United States 1,650, China 1,366, Russian Federation Relative Emissions 415, India 366, Japan 343, United Kingdom 160, Million ton of Carbon (MtC) is equal to 44/12 (3.67) million tons of CO2 (MtCO2) Source: Robin Hickman et al, Delhi discussion workshop, 2008

10 CO2 intensity of passenger transport Source: Penner et al. (1999)

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12 RIGHT SIZING AIRCRAFT FOR INDIA : DOMESTIC OPERATIONS FLEET : TOTAL : 394 (2008) NARROW BODIES 250 REGIONALS 75 (TP 75%, RJ 25% ) REST : WIDE BODIES ROUTE AND TRAFFIC ANALYSIS : Number of routes : 555 Routes (> 800 kms) : 36% Routes (> 200 kms and <800 kms): 56% Routes (<200 kms) : 8% ROUTES > 800 kms : 42% SUITABLE FOR NB OPERATION ROUTES < 800 KMS : a) 25% ARE DENSER ROUTES SUITABLE FOR HIGH CAPACITY TP b) 75% ROUTES SUITABLE FOR 50/70 SEATER TP

13 THE PRICE TO BE PAID FOR SPEED Specific Tractive Force After Gabrielli and von Karman (1950) Km/h

14 PRODUCTIVITY Operating costs of transporting people and goods depends on the payload the aircraft can carry and the hours flown. The revenue is related to the kilometers flown. Both are related to the seat kilometers flown in a given time. With cheap fuel, productivity has been directly related to speed. As lower speeds require less fuel, increased fuel costs require that this be revisited. P REQ ' D = V D

15 Source: P&WC Turbo props fuel burn is 70% lower than turbo fans leading to lower Operating costs and emissions

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17 POTENTAIL PERFORMANCE ENHANCING TECHNOLOGIES Structural efficiency advanced composites adaptive structures reduced weight Chemical efficiency alternative fuels reduced emissions Propulsive efficiency lower fuel consumption higher operating temperatures geared turbofans Next Gen Turboprop Aerodynamic efficiency laminar flow technologies turbulent drag reduction via flowcontrol technologies induced drag reduction via planform design, winglets, etc. formation flight advanced configurations re configurable aircraft energy harvesting active control and artificial stability Other beneficial technologies embedded sensors and controls modernized air traffic control green aviation advanced manufacturing

18 CO2 intensity of passenger transport * Source: Penner et al. (1999) * New generation regional A/C

19 IN THE SLIGHTLY LONGER TERM.. PETROLEUM SUPPLY EVEN LESS CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES MORE CRITICAL Climate change Atmospheric CO2 concentration due to fossil fuel consumption CO2 induced release of fossil CO2 and methane Requirement for green energy Peak oil, Shortages of water & arable land Increasing worldwide food shortages

20 REPLACEMENT OF PETROLEUM WITH BIOMASS/BIOFUEL PRODUCED USING SALTWATER AGRICULTURE Requires no technology break-throughs. Can be achieved with less than 1% of the earth s landmass. Does not impact freshwater supple or food crops (as do most large-scale biofuel approaches). Can be approximately CO2 neutral.

21 Air Line Operations

22 Fuel Tankering by Commercial Operators in India Tankering is the practice of filling fuel tanks at an airport which offers low fuel prices and carrying this fuel for a series of flights. Carrying excess fuel results in increased fuel burn (1% Trip Fuel for every ton of fuel tankered). If sufficient price difference exists between departure and arrival airports, the operator saves on total cost of fuel even after accounting for increased fuel burn.

23 Fuel Tankering by Commercial Operators in India There is a large differential in ATF prices across India due to varying local taxes. Max/Min = 1.17 is large and encourages airlines to tanker fuel on almost 33% of the sectors. Assuming 2 tons of fuel is tankered on every flight operated by B 737 or A 320 on sectors recommended for tankering results in excess fuel burn of about 40 tons per day in India. At an average cost of Rs 40 per litre or Rs 50 per kg, it is a loss of Rs 20 lakhs (USD 40,000) per day to the Nation. Burning 40 tons of excess ATF contributes 126 tons of CO 2 and 40 kg of S0 2 to the environment every day. This is equivalent to planting 10.7 million trees every year.

24 FUEL MILEAGE, NAM/KG MIN DRAG FUEL MILEAGE vs CRUISE SPEED MRC CI=0 CI=5-3 min for DEL-BLR CI=10 CI=15 CI=20 CI=25 LRC CI=30 CI=35 CI=40 CI=45 CI= kg for DEL-BLR MACH NO

25 Air Traffic Management World over Air traffic will double by In India, air traffic will increase three times in the next 10 years. There is a public concern of through flight emissions The current ATC system will not be able to cope with these increased volumes of traffic Safety Traffic congestion Time delays at Airports Environmental impact Cost Next generation ATM System wide information management system (SWIM) Controlled Time of Arrival (CTA) Continuous Descent Arrival (CDA)

26 Green Approach (CDA)

27 THANK YOU

28 Systems View of Air Transportation Air Transportation System Elements

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30 New Technologies that need to be addressed 1.Drag reduction (<20%) Laminar airframe Natural Laminar flow Nano Coatings Reduction of Turbulent drag Riblets /Alternate concepts Reduction of Induced drag winglets 2. Airframe (weight < 20%, Cost < 30%, maintenance < 50%) Composite airframe (fuselage, inaddition to wing & empennage) Design concepts Crash requirements CFRP wind shield, pressure bulk head Lightning protection improvements Complex fitting development Reduce parts count Reduce cost Structural health monitoring

31 New Technologies that need to be addressed (Contd.) 3. Advanced propulsion system SFC < 20% Maintenance < 50% Cost < 30% Emission < 60% 4. Avionics Costs < 50% Enhanced safety Enhanced functions: EVS, SVS, HUD, EGPWS Future Transfer to Free Flight Network Wide band communication Satellite navigation with WAAS Weather & topology info Air space integration Real time support network Airspace & ground control integration Single pilot operator

32 New Technologies that need to be addressed (Contd.) 5. Affordable fly by wire systems Reduced hardware replication Shared use of sensors Reusable software New generation computers New design methodologies 6. More electric systems (cost < 30%, Maintenance < 50%) ECS Electric Landing gear retraction Electrical brakes for Landing gear Anti icing systems

33 Current Distribution of Passenger Traffic Analysis by Philippe Bonnefoy Data source: Airport set and geographical location (DAFIF) Note: * Source: Ministry of Civil Aviation of India 33

34 INDIA: TRANSPORTATION GROWTH FORECAST Year Goods carried (in million tones) Throughput (in billion tonne kilometers) Freight Transport Demand Forecast Year Passengers (million) Passenger kilometers (billions) Passenger growth Forecast Source: Discussions with RITES

35 GDP and Revenue Passenger Kilometers growth rates North America Europe China Southwest Asia* GDP growth rate RPK growth rate GDP to RPK multiplier 3.2% 2.5% 2% 2.1% 9.9% 7.1% 5.6% 6.4% 4.1% 3.4% 5.7% 4.1% 11.0% 7.9% 6.2% 8.0% Source: Boeing Aircraft Company (2007/2008) * Includes India

36 Results of limited Primary survey Survey covered travel by Rail, road & Air at a tier III city Price and availability are critical parameters Air travel could grow 10 times if ticket price is reduced to half With in a mode, time taken is not important Connectivity to the airport not critical

37 Source: Bonneyfoy, Indo US workshop(2008) Characteristics of Airports and Access to Air Transportation in India

38 Technology progression and efficiencies in large/regional aircraft Where Eu is the specific energy consumed per ASK From : Raffi Babikian, Stephen P. Lukachko and Ian A. Waitz* Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

39 Technology progression and efficiencies in regional aircraft where Eu is the specific energy consumed per ASK From Raffi Babikian, Stephen P. Lukachko and Ian A. Waitz* Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

40 NEW GEN REGIONAL AIRCRAFT Requirements Acquisition cost :25% lower Operating cost : 25% lower Fuel Consumption : % lower Maintenance cost : 50% lower TO & land from unequipped airfields All weather operation Emissions lower by 70% Enhanced safety

41 Concluding Remarks There is tremendous potential for growth of domestic aviation in India Large number of airfields exist but ill equipped Primary & Secondary survey show that LCC s will continue to grow and growth is sensitive to Ticket price Fuel consumption Maintenance requirements Ability to operate from small, ill equipped airfields Pollution There is a vital need for new generation regional aircraft with advanced technologies that address the twin issues of operating cost and impact on environment

42 IN THE SHORT TERM.. WORLD DEMAND FOR PETROLEUM IS OUTSTRIPPING PEAK OIL ( ) SUPPLY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES NOISE EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE GASES CLIMATE CHANGE

43 PROPULSIVE EFFICIENCY rate at which useful propulsive work is done/ rate at which energy is applied to the system R = H η p L D ln 1 1 w fuel w

44 HYDROGEN AIRCRAFT DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS Liquid Hydrogen is 2.8 times lighter, but occupies 4 times the volume of kerosene, for the same energy Large, insulated fuel tanks required Fuel cannot be stored in the wings Cryogenic tanks add structural weight and wetted area Increased wave drag for fixed cruise mach number, increased skin friction drag, increased fuel system weight fraction Fuel weight is much lower, allowing the takeoff weight to decrease Trade between the increased weight and drag due to the liquid hydrogen tanks and the lower fuel weight of the liquid hydrogen

45 HYDROGEN FUELED TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT SUMMARY Medium long range hydrogen aircraft will be more energy efficient than current aircraft for optimum missions. Need to look at off design mission performance. Large decreases are possible in energy usage of hydrogen aircraft Increase fineness ratio, tri lobe fuel tank. Cruise at slightly lower cruise Mach numbers; balance savings with block time. fuel Decreased takeoff thrust requirement, same cruise thrust. Optimum design space for hydrogen fueled aircraft different than kerosene aircraft.

46 SUMMARY CONLUSIONS SPEED CAN NO LONGER BE PURSUED AT ANY COST CHANGE TO MORE ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY FUELS IS A NECESSITY Hydrogen fueled aircraft are technically feasible, but storage and intra structure cost and complexity is imposing. Biomass/Biofuel from saltwater agriculture holds promise.

47 EFFECTIVENESS OF POWERPLANT True Airspeed, KPH E = net thrust propulsion weight Turboprop is lighter than prop./recip., but thirstier and 4 to 8 times more expensive. Stinton, The Design of the Aeroplane Cruising Speed, KTAS

48 Source: Kurt Van Dender, OECD(2008)