Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights
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1 Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev, Porto and Johannesburg
2 Race to refine: An assessment of Latin America s downstream projects Patricia Garip Bureau Chief, Latin America 5 September 2013
3 Agenda Latin America s current refining landscape A growing appetite for refined products Greenfield projects, upgrades, expansions Brazil s lead China s growing downstream presence Venezuela s retrenchment Outlook
4 Latin America s shrinking refining landscape Mexico 1,540 Ecuador 137 Colombia 325 Peru 208 Curacao 320 Venezuela 1,310 Brazil 2,070 Chile 220 Argentina 660 ( 000 b/d)
5 mn b/d Demand: Upward bound, but not so fast LatAm non-oecd oil demand growth lagging Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa Economic growth driving oil demand, albeit more slowly IMF: downward revisions Persistent fuel price subsidies distort demand curve Source: International Energy Agency
6 mn b/d US oil product exports to selected LatAm destinations Argentina Panama Venezuela Colombia Chile Peru Brazil Source: EIA
7 mn b/d US oil products exports to Mexico Source: EIA
8 Tightening sulphur limits (ppm) Country Diesel Gasoline Argentina 10 (Grade 3); 500 urban, 1,500 rural (Grade 2) 50 (97-octane) 150 (93-octane) Brazil , moving to 50 in 2014 Chile 15 in Santiago; 30 in rest of Chile 15 nationwide in Sept Colombia Ecuador in (90-octane) 600 (87-octane) Mexico Peru 50 in Lima/Callao 2,000 in rest of Peru 1, in 2015 Uruguay 50 30
9 /USG US Gulf Coast prices for conventional gasoline and diesel Jan-03 Feb-05 Apr-07 May-09 Jul-11 Aug-13 Conv Unl Ultra low sulfur dsl Source: Argus Media
10 Nearly 2.5mn b/d in greenfield plans Country Company Refinery Capacity ('000 b/d) Estimated start date Brazil Petrobras/PdV Abreu e Lima 230 Nov 2014/May2015 Petrobras Comperj (1) 165 Aug-16 Petrobras Comperj (2) Petrobras Premium 1 (1) Petrobras Premium 1 (2) Petrobras Premium Post 2018 Colombia Llanopetrol Meta /15 Cuba PdV-Cupet Matanzas 150? Ecuador PetroEcuador/ 2017 Pacific 300 CNPC/PdV Mexico Pemex Bicentennial Nicaragua Albanisa (PdV- Supreme Dream of Petronic) Bolivar
11 Selected expansions and upgrades Country Company Refinery Expansion/Upgrade ( 000 b/d) Start-up Uruguay Ancap La Teja Gasoline and diesel desulfurization units 2013 Colombia Ecopetrol Reficar 80 to Ecuador PetroEcuador Esmeraldas Bolivia YPFB Cochabamba, Santa Cruz New FCC, crude, vacuum and visbreaking units 2014 New CDUs 2014 Costa Rica Recope/CNPC Limon 25 to Colombia Ecopetrol Barrancabermeja 245 to Trinidad Petrotrin Point Fortin 160 to 200? Jamaica PCJ/PdV Kingston 30 to 50? Peru Petroperu Talara 62 to 95? Cuba PdV/Cupet Cienfuegos 65 to 150?
12 Petrobras refineries under construction, planned Abreu e Lima, 230,000 b/d PdV stake discarded? Nov 2014/May 2015 Comperj 1, 165,000 b/d, 2016 Comperj 2, 300,000 b/d, 2018 Preliminary Asian partnerships for Premium refineries 600,000 b/d Premium 1 with Sinopec, two stages, 1 st ,000 b/d Premium 2 with GS Energy, 1 st 2017 Premium 1 Comperj 1-2 Brasilia Premium 2 Abreu e Lima Planned refinery Refinery under construction
13 b/d Brazil refined product imports Total refined products Gasoline Diesel Source: ANP
14 Ecuador: Pacific refinery 300,000 b/d in 2017 PetroEcuador/PdV/CNPC Two phases Manta Quito Montecristi ICBC financing Oil-backed loans Planned refinery
15 Costa Rica: Limon refinery 25,000 b/d to 65,000 b/d Soresco: Recope-CNPC Questions over costs, contracting Chance for project revival under new Recope management? San Jose Planned refinery Limon Elections loom
16 Peru: Talara refinery 62,000 b/d to 95,000 b/d To be financed by PetroPeru share sale Restoration of PetroPeru Talara Vertical integration La Pampilla upgrade? Lima La Pampilla Planned refinery Refinery
17 Colombia Cartagena (Reficar) 80,000 b/d to 165,000 b/d, +80pc complete Delayed on labor strife Cartagena Barrancabermeja Bogota Meta Barrancabermeja upgrade Meta refinery? Planned refinery Refinery under construction
18 Chinese downstream presence rising, with limits Costa Rica Cuba Aruba? Venezuela Ecuador Brazil
19 Venezuelan presence receding Nicaragua Jamaica Dominican Republic Curacao? Ecuador Brazil
20 Refinery orphans? Bicentennial Pemex Supreme Dream Nicaragua Argentina, Cuba, Paraguay, Uruguay
21 mn b/d Latin America oil imports: upward bound 4.5 Regional liquids consumption Mexico/Chile Brazil Other Central and South America Source:
22 Reflections Labor strife Lack of Commercial logic Politics? Cost overruns Financing Delays, downsizing, quiet fading Brazil is an exception Venezuela s withdrawal accelerating refining deficit Chinese presence poised to grow, with limits Financing challenges Biofuels LNG Product imports set to rise Brazil as products exporter?
23 Argus Media
24 London Houston Washington New York Portland Calgary Santiago Bogota Rio de Janeiro Singapore Beijing Tokyo Sydney Dubai Moscow Astana Kiev Porto Johannesburg
25 Any questions?
26 Patricia Garip Bureau Chief, Latin America Phone: Cel: URL: Copyright notice All intellectual property rights in this presentation and the information herein are the exclusive property of Argus and and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence from Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this presentation you agree that you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus. Trademark notice ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS logo, FMB, DeWitt, ARGUS publication titles and ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Ltd. Visit for more information. Disclaimer All data and other information presented (the Data ) are provided on an as is basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law.
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