CAEF. The European Foundry Association. CAEF Council Meeting. Sommarøy near Tromsø - Norway. 15/16 June CAEF,

Transcription

1 CAEF The European Foundry Association CAEF Council Meeting Sommarøy near Tromsø - Norway 15/16 June CAEF,

2 Purpose of our meeting Information exchange Discussion of economic situation Raw materials Energy Technical issues Etc. Non-topics for our meetings: Prices Quotas Concrete customer relationships Any measures with indirect effect on the topics mentioned above Statistics have to respect these issues Almost no problem: Purchasing subjects Raw materials statistics Anonymous benchmark surveys Please take note of the CAEF antitrust compliance guideline CAEF,

3 Economy and Key Indicators - Background for Foundry Business Peak passed! Bild: Fotolia CAEF,

4 Industrial Production Change in % yoy Euro Area Business Climate Indicator (BCI) April 2018 Ambivalent Comments Snapshot April: The BCI for the euro area decreased. Managers' appraisals of the past 4 production and overall order books worsened. Meanwhile, managers' production expectations improved substantially Economic cycle Economic cycle Investment boom Recovery Recession No (!) cycle boom phase! Peak? Business Climate Industrial Production Business Climate Source: Eurostat, Industrial Production March CAEF,

5 Industrial Production Change in % yoy Euro Area Business Climate (BCI) Indicator May 2018 Ambivalent Comments Stage II Snapshot May: The BCI for the euro area picked up slightly. Managers' appraisals of their overall 4 and export order books improved markedly. By contrast, managers' production expectations worsened substantially as did their appraisals of the stocks of finished products Economic cycle Economic cycle Investment boom Recovery Recession No (!) cycle boom phase! Peak? Business Climate Industrial Production Business Climate Source: Eurostat, Industrial Production March CAEF,

6 Early Indicator: Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index Overheating vs Uncertainties CAEF,

7 65 Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in large regions uary 2017 May 2018 Index ,8 60,8 59,3 58,8 59,1 59,3 58,7 58,5 58,7 57,7 57,8 57,2 57,3 56,0 56,3 54,854,9 58,1 58,5 56,7 57,057,4 57,4 56,6 56,2 55,2 55,4 60,6 60,0 59,6 58,6 56,6 56,2 55, ,0 51,351,7 51,1 51,6 51,551,551,6 51,051,0 51,051,151,1 50,7 50,3 50,4 49, USA China Euro Area Index above 50 points = increasing economy (dominated by industrial production and service) Source: ISM, Markit, CAEF,

8 65 Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in the Euro Area uary 2017 May 2018 Index 63,0 63, ,4 56,8 58,3 58,2 59,5 59,6 59,3 58,1 60,660,6 61,1 60,6 58,2 58,258,1 56,9 53,6 53,8 53,3 52,2 57,5 55,8 56,1 56,1 55,1 54,8 54,9 58,8 58,4 55,9 55,7 56,2 55,0 55,1 54,4 53,7 53,8 53,0 55,2 55,1 56,3 56,3 59,0 58,3 57,8 57,4 56,8 56,1 55,6 55,855,8 56,0 56,0 55,4 55,1 55,2 54,8 54,5 54,7 54,8 53,9 54,0 54,3 54,4 53,5 53,4 52,7 52,4 54,5 54,2 58,1 57,3 56,7 56,2 55,9 56,3 56,2 55,1 55,3 55,055,1 54,2 53,9 54, Germa France Italy Spain UK Index above 50 points = increasing economy (dominated by industrial production and service) Source: Markit, CAEF,

9 65 Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) Selected Countries uary 2017 May 2018 Index 60 59,8 57,5 58,058,2 57, ,8 49,7 52,3 51,7 55,3 54,7 53,6 53,6 53,5 52,8 53,0 55,7 55,6 54,9 51,8 48,9 50,4 50,7 52,552,5 51,5 50,9 52,5 52,4 52,1 51,6 51,251,2 51,0 51,2 50,3 47,9 54,7 54,7 52,5 52,7 52,4 52,4 51,6 51,9 51,1 51,5 52,0 52,1 51,3 50,8 50,3 50,2 50,6 49,8 49,6 50,1 52,0 50,950,9 51,2 50,5 50,0 53,2 53,2 53,4 52,4 52,3 51,2 50,7 56,0 55,0 54,8 52,0 55,0 56,1 55,8 46,4 46, ,0 40 Turkey India Russia Brazil Norway Index above 50 points = increasing economy (dominated by industrial production and service) Source: Markit, CAEF,

10 Business Climate Germany Industrial Supplier May 2018 Reduced Optimism Saldo der positiven und negativen 70 Meldungen Uncertainties about the months to come Current Status Pespectives Source: Ifo München, ArGeZ Arbeitsgemeinschaft Zulieferindustrie Saisonbereinigt, Saldo aus positiven und negativen Bewertungen, CAEF,

11 Main Customer Industries current status Bild: Siemens CAEF,

12 Passenger Cars Sales (not! Production) 2017 The usual suspects USA: China: Europe: Brazil/Russia: Downturn limited growth Recovery, but limited volume More than bottom out Source: VDA CAEF,

13 Passenger Cars Sales (not! Production) unchanged picture Source: VDA CAEF,

14 Germany Passenger Cars Sales and Production 2017 Source: VDA; Sondereffekte im Oktober CAEF,

15 Germany Passenger Cars Sales and Production Source: VDA; Sondereffekte im Oktober CAEF,

16 Global Passenger Cars Sales and Production Forecast 2018 Negative Sales Forceast for the UK vs. Optimism in Spain and Italy Sales Production Region World + 2% + 1% + 1% USA * - 2% - 2% - 2% China + 2% + 2% + 2% EU % - 1% + 1% EU-NL +13% + 6% + 2% Germany + 3% - 1% - 2% France + 5% + 1% + 2% UK - 6% - 8% - 2% Spain + 8% + 5% + 2% Italy + 8% + 4% - 3% Russia +12% +12% +10% Turkey - 5% + 5% - 5% Japan + 6% ± 0% + 2% Source: VDA, May 2018 Picture: Fotolia CAEF,

17 General Engineering Second Most Important Customer Forecast 2018: upward revision +5 % with potential 40 branches roundabout 20 identified as castings intensive e.g. Machine Tool Industry Hydraulics and Pneumatics Agricultural Machinery Metallurgical Plants and Rolling Mills E.g. Incoming orders for Germany: (Eurostat has stopped to collect data about incoming orders) CAEF,

18 Incoming Orders (IO) General Engineering e.g. Germany March Incoming orders Germany =>1/3 of the EU market Domestic + 2,0 % External + 8,7 % thereof Euro Area + 9,1 % Extra Euro + 8,4 % AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG CAEF,

19 Incoming Orders (IO) Example Tool Machine Industry Germany March Domestic + 18,0 % External + 17,4 % thereof Euro Area + 5,7 % Extra Euro + 22,0 % 90 e.g. Italy: 70 national coordination of investment support programs "Agenzia Nazionale die Gestione dei Fondi Strutturali e FAS«e.g. NAFTA: tempory impulses from automotive investments AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG CAEF,

20 Incoming Orders (IO) Hydraulics Germany March Supplier for other engineering industries Domestic + 9,0 % External + 16,5 % thereof Euro Area + 12,4 % Extra Euro + 19,3 % AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG, Veränderung kumuliert gegen Vorjahrszeitraum in % CAEF,

21 Incoming Orders (IO) Pumps and Compressors Germany March 2018 Mixed picture Domestic - 0,6 % External - 0,5 % thereof Euro Area + 3,5 % Extra Euro - 3,1 % AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG, Veränderung kumuliert gegen Vorjahrszeitraum in % CAEF,

22 Incoming Orders (IO) Textile Machinery Germany March Europe as driving force, how long? Domestic + 8,9 % External + 4,1 % thereof Euro Area + 2,0 % Extra Euro + 4,5 % AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG, Veränderung kumuliert gegen Vorjahrszeitraum in % CAEF,

23 Incoming Orders (IO) Food Processing Machinery Germany March gegessen wird immer, Domestic mau External top Domestic + 0,9 % External + 11,5 % thereof Euro Area + 4,3 % Extra Euro + 15,4 % AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG, Veränderung kumuliert gegen Vorjahrszeitraum in % CAEF,

24 Incoming Orders (IO) Agricultural Machinery Germany March 2018 Peak passed! Domestic + 10,7 % External - 1,7 % thereof Euro Area - 1,4 % Extra Euro - 2,0 % AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG, Veränderung kumuliert gegen Vorjahrszeitraum in % CAEF,

25 Business Climate European Agricultural Machinery May 2018 Peak passed! Source: CEMA CAEF,

26 Incoming Orders (IO) Plastics and Rubber Machinery Germany March Domestic + 14,9 % External +/- 0,0 % thereof Euro Area - 4,0 % Extra Euro + 1,6 % AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG, Veränderung kumuliert gegen Vorjahrszeitraum in % CAEF,

27 Incoming Orders (IO) Engines and Turbines Germany March Domestic - 46,8 % External + 29,7 % thereof Euro Area + 44,6 % Extra Euro + 22,6 % AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG, Veränderung kumuliert gegen Vorjahrszeitraum in % CAEF,

28 Incoming Orders (IO) Electrical Engines, Generators Germany March Domestic + 4,2 % External + 7,4 % thereof Euro Area + 16,4 % Extra Euro + 1,1 % AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone Source: Stat. BA, Index 2015=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG, Veränderung kumuliert gegen Vorjahrszeitraum in % CAEF,

29 Short Range Outlook Steel Industry 2018/19 Regional Demand Statistical Problems in China Source: Worldsteel, * = Korrektur der Statistik China, geschlossene Werke waren nicht erfasst, Nachfrage verlagert sich auf erfasste Werke CAEF,

30 Forecast Mining Investments by Oxford Economics 2018 e.g. Australia, Maintenance vs Exploration CAEF,

31 Oil Price Development CAEF,

32 Rentability - Price level for different fracking regions in the USA CAEF,

33 Short Summary and Open Questions Bild: Fotolia, Nesterov Vasily; CAEF,

34 Current Perspectives for the Foundries (on condition: no significant negative impact) Passenger cars: USA weak, Europe: 2018 stagnation on a high level or positive impulses from Southern Europe? Recovery in Russia and South America China just before the start in the new area of electromobility plus reduced tariffs for cars and components General Engineering: 2018 chance for significant positive growth rates after start of recovery in 2017 Positive: automation, robotics and rubber- and plastic machines, building machines paper machines Negative: wind turbines under pressure Mining=Recovery on a low level, Agricultural=Peak passed Further Impulses possible from the Building Industry Risks Neverending story: Overcapacities hard price competition structural change Trump -Impact Brexit is dumpening investments CAEF,

35 Open Questions and Uncertainties USA Results of NAFTA renegotiations? Investmentboom with temporary positive impact for European plant manufacturer? Direct tax penalties or modification of the tax system (border adjustment tax) (current status: border adjustment tax is postponed) First steps of new tax and tariff policy: USA punitive tariffs - Europe and China are responding China Real growth vs. official data Reduction of capacity or delaying tactic and start of new capacities? Foundries? Penetration of the European markets for the background of US punitive tariffs -> Silk Road e.g. every week a freight train with containers reachs Hamburg/Germany EU/ Brexit und Co. Impact of Brexit = dumpening effect for investments or impulses driven by relocation processes? Other Russia: Rusal has stopped Aluminium Exports (US Sanctions), Elektromobility, Exchange rates CAEF,

36 European Foundry Industry Expectations ø Source: Eisenwerk Brühl, Bernd Rosenbaum CAEF,

37 180 FISI European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (ferrous) April Current status: Overheating Combined with uncertainties current situation expectations for six months Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since 2017: country weight based on production 2016, incl. Bulgaria CAEF,

38 180 FISI European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (non-ferrous) April Quite optimistic: Non-ferrous foundries reached the peak Negative question marks for the background of US punitive duties New Chinese tariffs (Automotive) with positive impulses? current situation expectations for six months Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since 2017: country weight based on production 2016, incl. Bulgaria CAEF,

39 110 FISI European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (steel castings) April Data collection has started December More than a flash in the pan? current situation expectations for six months Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since 2017: country weight based on production 2016, incl. Bulgaria CAEF,

40 CAEF The European Foundry Association CAEF,