An European perspective to the Power Transmission market
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1 The European Committee of Associations of Manufacturers of Gears and Transmission Parts An European perspective to the Power Transmission market Dr. Andrea Scanavini EUROTRANS Past President Council member of Assiot Vice-President Business Development by Somaschini Trescore B. (Bergamo) Chief Executive Officer by Somaschini North America Page 1
2 A short view to the EUROTRANS members AGORIA BGA TIF ARTEMA ASSIOT SWISSMEM VDMA Page 2
3 The executive board: Gilles de Juvigny, CEO CMD, France (President) (ARTEMA) Tomaso Carraro, Carraro SpA / Gear World, Italy (Vice-President) (Assiot) Kari Sorjonen, Tasowheel Group Oy, Finland (FFTI) Theo Maas, I DT MD, CEO Mechanical Drives, Siemens AG, Germany (VDMA) Jens Westh, FLSmidth MAAG Gear AG, Switzerland (SWISSMEM) Koen Christiaensen, ZF Wind Power Antwerpen NV, Belgium (AGORIA) BGA, UK (BGA) Page 3
4 European Power Transmission Within the EU, the member associations represent the interests of more than 600 enterprises, with a collective annual production of more than 37 billion EURO (including bearing industry and without the automotive business and the electrical side); Within Europe at least 160,000 people are employed by this sector. Page 4
5 European power transmission 2011 Bearings, gears, driving elements Belgium 2% Spain 2% Finland 2% UK 2% France 8% Others 15% Germany 48% partly estimated bearings, gears, elements (NACE Rev ) Italy 21% 2012 not finalized yet: -1%? Total production 2011: 37,1 Billion EURO (+16%) Page 5
6 European Power Transmission based on prodcom 2914 (estimation 2011) Bearings 42% Gears 32% Elements 26% Source: EUROSTAT Page 6
7 Power Transmission 2011 World export Worldexport 46% 54% EU27 Rest 57,7 Billion Euro 6 of the biggest export nations are from Europe Page 7
8 World exports of gears and gearboxes Target regions Central- a. South Asia South America 0,5 0,4 0,61 0,67 +14,6% +9,4% other Europe 0,7 0,6 +26% South East Asia 0,9 0,7 +21% East Asia North America 2,9 2,5 3 2,5 +14,7% +23% EU-27 5,3 6,4 +22% World total 13,6 16,1 +18,4% Source: nationale statistical bureaus, UN Comtrade Billion EURO Page 8
9 World exports gears and gearboxes Target countries Brazil India Korean Republic % +15% +8% Canada Belgium % +28% Italy France Germany China USA % +26% % % % MIO. EURO Source: nationale statistical bureaus, UN Comtrade Page 9
10 Production Power Transmission (2012 estimated) Billion Euro Source: nationale statistical bureaus, UN Comtrade Page 10
11 Power Transmission European total exports Source: nationale statistical bureaus, UN Comtrade Page 11
12 European exports gear and gearboxes Source: nationale statistical bureaus, UN Comtrade Page 12
13 Ifo Economic Climate in Euro Area Brightens Page 13
14 Orders in German mechanical engineering and business climate in German industry Business climate* Incoming orders** Business climate Domestic orders *) Balance **) Volume Index, seasonally adjusted and smoothed line Source: ifo-institut, VDMA Page 14
15 OECD-Indicator and incoming orders in German mechanical engineering OECD-indicator* Incoming orders** Incoming orders OECD *) 12-months %-change, **) real %-change against previous year M6= Brasil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South-Africa Source: VDMA, OECD Page 15
16 Italian Industrial production Monthly trend Page 16
17 ASSIOT Internal Survey Quarterly trend 3,0 2,1 1,4 0,6 I qrt 2012 II qrt 2012 III qrt 2012 IV qrt 2012 I qrt ,9-2,4-0,4-2,5-1,9 15,0-2,6-3,6-9,2-9,6-8,4 TO TAL TURN O VER EXPO RT N ATIO N AL HO M E SALES Page 17
18 Expectations in regions Tendencies 1. By REGIONS NEW ORDERS EXPECTATION SELLS EUROPE > -10% Decrease Increase >-5% - (-10%) <-5% 0 <5% >5% - 10% >10% > -10% Decrease B F,I,G I F,G,B Increase >-5% - (-10%) <-5% 0 <5% >5% - 10% >10% ASIA F B,I,G G,I F,B,G North AMERICA (USA) B F,I,G F,B G,I South/Middle AMERICA F B,I,G F,B,I G AFRICA and AUSTRALIA F,I G B F,G,I B 2. By PRODUCTS NEW ORDERS EXPECTATION SELLS > -10% Decrease Increase >-5% - (-10%) <-5% 0 <5% >5% - 10% >10% > -10% Decrease Increase >-5% - (-10%) <-5% 0 <5% >5% - 10% >10% GEAR / GEARBOXES B I F G B I F G TRANSMISSION ELEMENTS B F,I G F,B I,G CHAINS F I F,I BEARINGS F,I B F,B,I B= Belgium, F=France, G=Germany, I=Italy Page 18
19 Our customers Consolidation on a high level Development of EUROPEAN Industry sectors March 2013 tendencies Expected development of key industries Additional industries Agriculture: Construction: Material handling: Tooling Machine: Medicine: Automotive: growth neutral positive growth neutral neutral potential impulses? Increasing order intake stable in order intake Decreasing order intake Page 19
20 Forecasts are expected to be adjusted within the next month Forecast / Estimation for European Power Transmission 2012* Germany - 2 % 0 % growth France 0 % 0 % growth Italy -1% 0% growth Belgium -15 % 0 % growth Finland -5 % 0 % Switzerland 0 (-) 0 (+) growth EUROTRANS - 2% 0 % growth (3%) 2013: Consolidation at a high level! A certain growth will be expected 2nd half maybe a real growth! *official data are not available! Page 20
21 Turnover in internat. mechanical engineering Real change against previous year in percent China USA World Austria Germany Belgium United Kingdom Denmark Switzerland Netherlands Japan France Spain Portugal Finland Italy Sweden forecast 2013 forecast 2012 Source: VDMA (November 2012)
22 Our Chances European criteria for differentiation Customer- and market-oriented R&D System and applikation knowledge Integrated Industries Industry 4.0 Production excellence Combined mechanical, electric and electronic drive solutions Green products sustainability Energy efficient system solutions Page 22
23 European power transmission an optimistic forecast for the future Chances and risks in the European branch Chances The worldwide automotive business/project causes investments, which affect the supplier industry To be able to growth, Infrastructure is needed in India China will invest again Comeback of the industry in USA Europe delivers key technology and application knowledge for the global trends such as mobility, energy and modern production Risks still a pending European financial crisis political instabilities Syria conflict affects the world economy Korean conflict Iran The whole industry is a position of consolidation on a high level! For 2013 we do neither expect an upswing nor a downswing. The impulse of growth will start in the 2 nd half of 2013! In 2014 a big growth is expected! Page 23
24 Thank you for your attention! For additional information: Dirk Decker EUROTRANS Secretary General Phone: 0049(0) Fax: 0049(0) Page 24
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