Deutschland: Asiens Ingenieur, Europas Motor, Garant des Euro?

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1 Frankfurt/M., 2. Februar Deutschland: Asiens Ingenieur, Europas Motor, Garant des Euro? Dr. Stefan Kooths ing Center

2 GDP: Slower pace ahead 114 2=1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

3 driven by domestic demand (GDP, cont.) age points Stocks External trade Gross fixed capital formation Consumption Annual data, volumes, growth contributions -6

4 Mixed evidence on capacity utilization Survey (ifo) back to normalization (expected for -Q1) Order-Capacity-Index (Bundesbank) normalizing, but coming from 6 dramatically poor quarters Labor productivity Still way below pre-crisis levels 4 Output gap via production function closing by mid/end of

5 Capacity utilization approaching normal levels 9 Ifo capacity utilization Bbk Order-Capacity-Index (rhs) ifo cu average I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted

6 Labor productivity: 4 lost years 113 2= QoQ annualized growth rate -6 Level (chain index) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

7 Output gap closed by mid/end of 25 Bn. Euro Output gap GDP Potential output Annual data, volumes; output gap in percent of potential output -4

8 Orders received by industry: Flattening upward trend 17 2=1 Total From abroad Monthly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted, 3-month moving average

9 Production: Robust catching-up process 2= Manufacturing 9 Construction Monthly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted, 3-month moving average

10 Business climate: A mental boom 116 2= Situation Expectations Monthly data, seasonally adjusted

11 Exports are back on track 2=1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

12 Exports and world production expectations 25 Index YoY export growth rate World production expecations (rhs) Quarterly data, volumes expecations computed from 41 countries weighted by shares of German exports -4

13 World production and export expectations 1 Index World industrial production (YoY growth rate) Export expectations (rhs) Quarterly data, volumes computed from 41 countries weighted by shares of German exports -4

14 M&E investment: Augmenting the net capital stock again 14 2= QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working -day adjusted

15 Constructions: Flattened by shrinking public investment 94 2=1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) residential 86 public I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working -day adjusted

16 Consumer spending: Recovery after 5 years 17 2=1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level (chain index) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

17 Disposable income of private households ,5 % + 1,7 % + 7,4 % Net property income 32,9% Net monetary social benefits 25,9% +,1 % + 1, % + 3,7 % Disposable income + 2,6 % + 3,3 % + 2,5 % + 4,1 % 17 Net wages and salaries 41,1% + 2, % + 2,4 % 29 shares (segments), change over previous year (boxes)

18 GDP and key components Volumes, change over previous year in percent GDP 3,7 2,3 1,3 Private consumption,5 1,7,8 Public consumption 2,1 1,4 1,1 M&E investment 1,3 9,4 9,2 Construction 4,2 2,2 1,1 Exports 14,8 6,4 6,2 18 Imports 14,2 6,9 7,

19 Employment at an all-time high 1 persons QoQ annualized growth rate Level 3, 48 2,5 2, 43 1,5 1, 398,5, 393 -,5-1, ,5 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted

20 but total hours at mid-9s levels 12 2=1 QoQ annualized growth rate Level I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, seasonally and working-day adjusted

21 and significant structural change going on 45 1 persons Mill. hours Employment Hours worked (rhs) Share of value added: minus 2,2 percentage points Mining, Manufacturing, Energy Construction Trade and Transportation Financial intermediation, real estate, business activities Public and private services Employment, comparison of 21 Q3 vs. 28 Q3

22 Unemployment below 3 million in 5 1 persons 25 QoQ annualized growth rate Level I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, volumes, seasonally and working-day adjusted

23 Consumer prices: Inflation is picking up 124 2=1 QoQ annualized rate Index I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted

24 Unit labor cost: 29 peak still to be swallowed Unit labor cost GDP deflator CPI Annual data, change over previous year

25 Conclusion 25 Speed of catching-up process (mid 21) was surprising, the process itself is not - Strong export base - Focus on capital goods Germany a growth engine for Europe? - Ignores the more pronounced slump in the first place, so far mainly back to 26/27 levels only (manufacturing) - Poor overall investment activity slows down potential growth perspectives - Moderate growth (in the course of) next year Labor market miracle? - Higher (than expected) flexibility in terms of keeping people in their jobs (preserving human capital) - Heavy impact of structural change (in the background) and re-distribution of labor (rather than more absorption of labor)

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