Конференция «Глобальные и локальные рынки нефти, газа и нефтепродуктов»

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1 Конференция «Глобальные и локальные рынки нефти, газа и нефтепродуктов» МИРОВЫЕ РЫНКИ НЕФТИ СОСТОЯНИЕ ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ И РИСКИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ВОЗРАСТАЮЩЕЙ КОНКУРЕНЦИИ ПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЕЙ Артём Чен Старший Аналитик, Департамент энергетических рынков 2 СЕНТЯБРЯ 218

2 Agenda Short-term (-219) tight market & high prices lay the foundation for new investment cycle IMO 22 bunker fuel regulations and implications Medium-term - implications of new investment cycle for mid-22s 2

3 Global liquids supply-demand balances Balanced market in 219 if no large unexpected supply disruptions oil prices supported World liquids supply-demand balance and Brent crude price, annual averages Million barrels per day USD per barrel Forecast Historical Natural stock build* Brent (rhs) ? *Natural stock build means the need for stock build to keep global inventories constant in terms of days of demand, as long as global demand is growing. Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, OilMarketCube 3

4 Agenda Short-term (-219) tight market & high prices lay the foundation for new investment cycle IMO 22 bunker fuel regulations and implications Medium-term - implications of new investment cycle for mid-22s 4

5 IMO 22 New sulfur content limits in global bunker fuels from 22 will become a decisive factor IMO s sulfur content limits in marine bunker fuels % of weight ECA* Global Jan-1 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-2 * Emissions Control Areas: Special areas with more stringent fuel regulations under MARPOL Annex VI: Baltic Sea, North Sea, North America (most of US and Canadian coast), US Caribbean Sea Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, IMO 5

6 IMO 22 To meet new fuel standards, the bunker demand mix will need to comprise a bit of everything Marine bunker fuel demand by fuel type, base case Million barrels per day Other fuels ULSFO Marine Gasoil Heavy Fuel Oil Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Oil Market Analytics 6

7 IMO 22 Market prices in collapse in heavy fuel oil cracks and wider sweet-sour crude differentials Gasoil & Heavy Fuel Oil (HSFO) NW Europe cracks to ICE Brent USD per barrel 3.1% Gasoil crack.1% Gasoil forward crack (current) 25.1% Gasoil forward crack (12m ago) HSFO 3.5% crack HSFO 3.5% forward crack (current) 2 HSFO 3.5% crack (12m ago) 15 1 Brent-Dubai differential USD per barrel Brent-Dubai differential Brent-Dubai forward (current) Brent-Dubai forward (12m ago) Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-2 Jan-21 Jan-22-6 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-2 Jan-21 Jan-22 Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Bloomberg 7

8 Global supply-demand balances crude balances versus total liquids balances Crude market likely tightening due to IMO 22, while overall liquids show potential over-supply Global crude and condensate balances Million barrels per day 3. Crude supply growth Crude demand growth Crude balance Incremental crude demand to cover MGO demand ( IMO 22 effect) Global liquids (total liquids products) balances Million barrels per day 3. Liquids supply growth Liquids demand growth 2.5 Liquids balance Tight crude market, due to gasoil demand spurring need -.4 for incremental crude runs (IMO 22 effect) Potential oversupply in overall liquids except gasoil/diesel Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 8

9 Brent timeline and latest forward curve Still bullish outlook through 22, but ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI historical 1M prices, latest futures curves and base-case Brent and WTI estimates USD per barrel Iran nuclear fears Draghi: Whatever it takes EU crisis US shale oil revolution US rig count starts to drop Iraq supply risk fears NAm shale surge Softer demand Saudi price cuts OPEC meeting OPEC meeting Iran sanctions relief Iran agreement OPEC meeting Production freeze talks Iran sanctions announced OPEC deal Venezuela collapse, Permian boom Brent front month (historical) Brent futures curve Brent base case WTI front month (historical) WTI futures curve WTI base case Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Bloomberg 9

10 Agenda Short-term (-219) tight market & high prices lay the foundation for new investment cycle IMO 22 bunker fuel regulations and implications Medium-term - implications of new investment cycle for mid-22s 1

11 A new investment cycle is on the horizon Higher oil prices in combination with lower cost level and activity results in improved FCF Total free cash flows for all public E&P companies* Billion USD Development in Brent breakeven oil prices USD per barrel Supply Segment Group Reduction in breakeven price Offshore deepwater 27% Offshore midwater 35% Offshore shelf 15% Shale/Tight oil 42% Other Onshore 38% YTD *The FCF includes all cash flows from upstream activity. It excludes cash related to financing. Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, UCube 11

12 A new investment cycle is on the horizon Sanctioning (FID) activity in conventional production expected to grow over the next two years Total green field capex by sanctioning year (excl. shale/tight oil) Billion USD 35 Sanctioned Not-yet-sanctioned Resources in fields by sanctioning year (excl. Shale/tight oil) Billion barrels 3 Offshore Onshore Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, UCube 12

13 Global liquids supply growth vs. demand growth trend New investment cycle potentially creating too much supply as shale can grow further Global liquids supply growth by segment vs. demand growth Thousand barrels per day Other Onshore Shale/Tight oil Oil sands Offshore shelf Offshore midwater Offshore deepwater Demand Long-cycle effect on global supply from low sanctioning New offshore volumes from sanctioning coupled with robust growth from US shale Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, UCube 13

14 Office locations Contact: Artyom Tchen Senior Analyst, Energy Markets Research Rystad Energy: Independent energy consulting and business intelligence data firm established in 24, headquartered in Oslo with offices across the globe. Databases: Covering energy fundamentals, upstream, oilfield services and renewable energy industries. Analytics: Extensive library of market reports, commentaries and fact sheets. Consulting: Leading advisor on strategy, markets and business development within the energy space globally.

15 Copyright and Disclaimer This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this document is based on Rystad Energy s global oil & gas databases UCube and OilMarketCube, public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The document is not intended to be used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discussions. The document is subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document. Copyright 218. All rights reserved. All materials, content and forms contained in this report are the intellectual property of Rystad Energy and may not be copied, reproduced, distributed or displayed without Rystad Energy s permission to do so. Rystad Energy does not warrant, either expressly or implied, the accuracy or timeliness of the information contained in this report. Rystad Energy disclaims any responsibility for content errors. 15